Analysis and projection of multiregional population dynamics in China: 1950-2087.

This research focuses on an analysis of multiregional population dynamics of China at two spatial levels. The first part of the thesis is about urban-rural population dynamics in China. The forces determining urbanization process are discussed. The concepts of multiregional population accounts and forward demographic rates are used to analyze the urban-rural population change. Urban-rural life tables and an urban-rural population projection model are developed. A demo-economic model is used to drive the urban- rural population migration and transition in the population projection model. Three urban-rural population projections are made for the period 1987-2087 assuming various fertility trends in urban and rural populations. A growth stage (before the late 2030s) and a stable stage (after the late 2030s) of population development in China are identified on the basis of these projection results. The second part of the thesis is about multiregional (provincial level) population dynamics in China. The main features of the spatial distribution of China's population and regional trends in population change since the 1950s are examined. Fertility, mortality and migration analyses are carried out to reveal the major factors affecting regional disparities. Finally, a more precise and straightforward multiregional population projection model based on forward demographic rates is developed by introducing extended multiregional population accounts. The model is calibrated using 1982 census data and 1987 one-percent population sampling data to produce a multiregional population projection of China. Future provincial population trends are revealed. The implications of the future long-term population trends both at the urban-rural and provincial levels are discussed in the concluding chapter of the thesis. Population growth will continue to be a major problem facing China in the next 40 years. Economic reform and development may have both negative and positive effects on population development. Smooth transition to a market economy, continued steady growth of China's economy and a slowdown of population growth will augur well for the future in China

Market expansion, state intervention and wage differentials between economic sectors in urban China : a multilevel analysis

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41501151, 41329001); the China Ministry of Education (11JJDZH006); the National Key Technology R&D Program (2012BAI32B07); and the Research Centre for Urban and Regional Development, Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies. This research is also supported by the Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learning.The rising earnings inequality in China has sparked a heated debate on the socioeconomic outcomes of market transformation. While a large body of literature has focussed on the temporal trend of wage inequality during the reform period, much less attention has been devoted to the structural causes of regional variations in sectoral wage differentials. Using a micro-data sample from the 2005 one percent population sample survey and multilevel methods, this article examines the geographic variability of wage differentials between economic sectors in urban China, with a particular focus on the combination effects of market expansion and state intervention. The results indicate that sectoral wage differentials vary substantially across regions, and that market expansion interacts with state intervention to reconfigure earnings outcomes. Specifically, prefectures located in the interior region tend to exhibit a large wage premium for the state sectors, while prefectures located in the coastal region tend to display a wage advantage of the foreign-invested sector. The wage gap between the state and non-state sectors is smaller in areas with diversified ownership; openness to foreign investment increases the relative wages of foreign-invested-sector employees; stringent government regulation of industries increases the wage gap between the state monopoly sector and the non-monopoly sector; and strong redistributive power increases the wage premium for the public service sector over other sectors. Our findings suggest the necessity to take into account contextually constituted and locally specific wage-setting mechanisms when studying China’s wage inequality.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Interprovincial migration, regional development and state policy in China, 1985-2010

Internal migration in China occurs as a result of both market forces and government interventions. This paper investigates how indicators of migration have changed over the past quarter of a century using data from successive censuses, with particular attention given to the roles of regional economic development and national policy and the effects of age and education on spatial patterns of migration. The results show a surge in migration throughout the period, an increasing concentration of migration destinations and an improvement of migration efficiency prior to 2000, but a decreased focusing of migration during the first decade of the twenty-first century. Widening regional disparity has been responsible for a sharp increase of migration from the interior to the coast, and different national economic growth poles emerged as major migration destinations at different stages of economic reforms. The analyses of age- and education-specific migration flows indicate that young adults were more mobile and more sensitive than older cohorts to interregional economic differentials, and that educated migrants were more concentrated than less-educated migrants since knowledge-based industries were more concentrated than labour-intensive industries. Our findings suggest that massive eastward migration induced by unbalanced economic development and relaxed migration restrictions still persisted in the 2000s, and that the State's recent efforts to alleviate regional inequalities were far from achieving equilibrium in the migration system

Modelling national or regional grain supply and food balance in China

In this paper, explicit grain production and demand models were used to analyze changes in national and regional grain production in China over the period 1990 - 97 and the future grain supply and demand up to the year 2087. A decomposition approach was developed on the basis of the grain production model to estimate the impacts of various input factors on grain production in China. National grain production, demand, and import in the future were modelled. This modelling framework allows projections of the future food situation of China on the basis of various scenarios. The results are fairly transparent and can be traced to the conditions of input factors and the level of consumption.

Changing spatial planning in China’s five-year planning system

The five-year planning (FYP) system is very important in regulating economic and spatial development in China. By analysing the texts of five-year plans and corresponding spatial policies, as well as the primary governance issues since the foundation of the People's Republic of China, this paper argues that market-oriented reform and decentralised economic administration have changed China's political economy and necessitated transformation of the FYP mechanism. However, the emerging spatial governance mechanism is encountering many challenges and may not operate smoothly in the near future. </jats:p

Spatial patterns and determinants of skilled internal migration in China, 2000-2005

This paper examines the spatial patterns and determinants of China's interprovincial skilled migration by using data from 2005 one per cent population sample survey. While the coastal region benefits from the influx of skilled labour, the rest of China suffers from severe brain drain. Estimates from zero-inflated negative binomial gravity models indicate that employment opportunities, especially interregional wage differentials, play a dominant role in attracting skilled labour, and that the impact of amenities on skilled migration turns out to be small and less clear. Findings suggest that China's skilled people prioritize their career prospects over the quality of life in the migration decision-making process.</p