Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change

The integrated assessment models (IAMs) that economists use to analyze the expected costs and benefits of climate policies frequently suggest that the “optimal” policy is to go slowly and to do relatively little in the near term to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We trace this finding to the contestable assumptions and limitations of IAMs. For example, they typically discount future impacts from climate change at relatively high rates. This practice may be appropriate for short-term financial decisions but its extension to intergenerational environmental issues rests on several empirically and philosophically controversial hypotheses. IAMs also assign monetary values to the benefits of climate mitigation on the basis of incomplete information and sometimes speculative judgments concerning the monetary worth of human lives and ecosystems, while downplaying scientific uncertainty about the extent of expected damages. In addition, IAMs may exaggerate mitigation costs by failing to reflect the socially determined, path-dependent nature of technical change and ignoring the potential savings from reduced energy utilization and other opportunities for innovation. A better approach to climate policy, drawing on recent research on the economics of uncertainty, would reframe the problem as buying insurance against catastrophic, low-probability events. Policy decisions should be based on a judgment concerning the maximum tolerable increase in temperature and/or carbon dioxide levels given the state of scientific understanding. The appropriate role for economists would then be to determine the least-cost global strategy to achieve that target. While this remains a demanding and complex problem, it is far more tractable and epistemically defensible than the cost-benefit comparisons attempted by most IAMs

Comparative Investigations of Social Context-Dependent Dominance in Captive Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and Wild Tibetan Macaques (Macaca thibetana)

Theoretical definitions of dominance, how dominance is structured and organized in nature, and how dominance is measured have varied as investigators seek to classify and organize social systems in gregarious species. Given the variability in behavioral measures and statistical methods used to derive dominance rankings, we conducted a comparative analysis of dominance using existing statistical techniques to analyze dominance ranks, social context-dependent dominance structures, the reliability of statistical analyses, and rank predictability of dominance structures on other social behaviors. We investigated these topics using behavioral data from captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and wild Tibetan macaques (Macaca thibetana). We used a combination of all-occurrence, focal-animal, and instantaneous scan sampling to collect social, agonistic, and associative data from both species. We analyzed our data to derive dominance ranks, test rank reliability, and assess cross-context predictability using various statistical analyses. Our results indicate context-dependent dominance and individual social roles in the captive chimpanzee group, one broadly defined dominance structure in the Tibetan macaque group, and high within-context analysis reliability but little cross-context predictability. Overall, we suggest this approach is preferable over investigations of dominance where only a few behavioral metrics and statistical analyses are utilized with little consideration of rank reliability or cross-context predictability

Effective Feedback to Improve Primary Care Prescribing Safety (EFIPPS) a pragmatic three-arm cluster randomised trial:designing the intervention (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01602705)

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Why do people fail to turn good intentions into action? : The role of executive control processes in the translation of healthy eating intentions into action in young Scottish adults

Non peer reviewedPublisher PD

Does Monitoring Goal Progress Promote Goal Attainment? A Meta-Analysis of the Experimental Evidence

Control theory and other frameworks for understanding self-regulation suggest that monitoring goal progress is a crucial process that intervenes between setting and attaining a goal, and helps to ensure that goals are translated into action. However, the impact of progress monitoring interventions on rates of behavioral performance and goal attainment has yet to be quantified. A systematic literature search identified 138 studies (N = 19,951) that randomly allocated participants to an intervention designed to promote monitoring of goal progress versus a control condition. All studies reported the effects of the treatment on (a) the frequency of progress monitoring and (b) subsequent goal attainment. A random effects model revealed that, on average, interventions were successful at increasing the frequency of monitoring goal progress (d+ = 1.98, 95% CI [1.71, 2.24]) and promoted goal attainment (d+ = 0.40, 95% CI [0.32, 0.48]). Furthermore, changes in the frequency of progress monitoring mediated the effect of the interventions on goal attainment. Moderation tests revealed that progress monitoring had larger effects on goal attainment when the outcomes were reported or made public, and when the information was physically recorded. Taken together, the findings suggest that monitoring goal progress is an effective self-regulation strategy, and that interventions that increase the frequency of progress monitoring are likely to promote behavior change

Design of ultrasonically-activatable nanoparticles using low boiling point perfluorocarbons

Recently, an interest has developed in designing in biomaterials for medical ultrasonics that can provide the acoustic activity of microbubbles, but with improved stability in vivo and a smaller size distribution for extravascular interrogation. One proposed alternative is the phase-change contrast agent. Phase-change contrast agents (PCCAs) consist of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) that are initially in liquid form, but can then be vaporized with acoustic energy. Crucial parameters for PCCAs include their sensitivity to acoustic energy, their size distribution, and their stability, and this manuscript provides insight into the custom design of PCCAs for balancing these parameters. Specifically, the relationship between size, thermal stability and sensitivity to ultrasound as a function of PFC boiling point and ambient temperature is illustrated. Emulsion stability and sensitivity can be ‘tuned’ by mixing PFCs in the gaseous state prior to condensation. Novel observations illustrate that stable droplets can be generated from PFCs with extremely low boiling points, such as octafluoropropane (b.p. −36.7°C), which can be vaporized with acoustic parameters lower than previously observed. Results demonstrate the potential for low boiling point PFCs as a useful new class of compounds for activatable agents, which can be tailored to the desired application

Toward Ultrasound Molecular Imaging With Phase-Change Contrast Agents: An In Vitro Proof of Principle

Phase-change contrast agents (PCCAs), which normally consist of nano/microscale droplets of liquid perfluorocarbons (PFCs) in an encapsulating shell, can be triggered to undergo a phase transition to the highly-echogenic gaseous state upon the input of sufficient acoustic energy. As a result of the subsequent volumetric expansion, a number of unique applications have emerged that are not possible with traditional ultrasound microbubble contrast agents. Although many studies have explored the therapeutic aspects of the PCCA platform, few have examined the potential of PCCAs for molecular imaging purposes. In this study, we demonstrate a PCCA-based platform for molecular imaging using αvβ3-targeted nanoscale PCCAs composed of low-boiling-point PFCs. In-vitro, nanoscale PCCAs adhered to target cells, could be activated and imaged with a clinical ultrasound system and produced a six-fold increase in image contrast compared to non-targeted control PCCAs and a greater than fifty-fold increase over baseline. Data suggest that low-boiling-point nanoscale PCCAs could enable future ultrasound-based molecular imaging techniques in both the vascular and extravascular space

The Effects of Two Planning Interventions on the Oral Health Behavior of Iranian Adolescents: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of a planning intervention (specifying when, where, and how to act) and an implementation intention intervention (specifying the same in the format of an if-then plan) in increasing self-reported brushing in adolescents. METHODS: The study adopted a cluster randomized controlled trial design, and 1158 students in 48 schools were randomized to planning, implementation intention, or active control conditions. After baseline assessment, all participants received a leaflet containing information and recommendations on oral health and instructions on correct brushing behavior. After reading the leaflets, they were provided with a toothbrush and toothpaste plus a calendar in which to record their brushing. Participants in the planning condition and in the implementation intention condition also received instructions to form specific plans regarding brushing behavior. Self-reported brushing, perceived behavioral control, self-monitoring, intention, frequency of planning, oral health-related quality of life, and dental plaque and periodontal status were measured 1 and 6 months later. RESULTS: Both intervention conditions showed a significant improvement in the frequency of self-reported brushing, self-monitoring, frequency of planning, intention, perceived behavioral control, plaque index, periodontal health, and oral health-related quality of life compared to the control condition at both follow-ups. Comparing the two intervention conditions revealed that adolescents who received the implementation intention intervention had significantly greater improvement in the frequency of self-reported brushing, intention, frequency of planning, and periodontal health than those in planning condition. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, the findings suggest that forming implementation intentions as well as planning has the potential to increase dental self-reported brushing rates in adolescents, but that forming implementation intentions has the strongest impact on dental hygiene behavior and is, therefore, recommended. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The trial was registered with the ClinicalTrials.gov database (NCT02066987) https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02066987

Dual-frequency acoustic droplet vaporization detection for medical imaging

Liquid-filled perfluorocarbon droplets emit a unique acoustic signature when vaporized into to gas-filled microbubbles using ultrasound. Here, we conducted a pilot study in a tissue-mimicking flow phantom to explore the spatial aspects of droplet vaporization and investigate the effects of applied pressure and droplet concentration on image contrast and axial and lateral resolution. Control microbubble contrast agents were used for comparison. A confocal dual-frequency transducer was used to transmit at 8 MHz and passively receive at 1 MHz. Droplet signals were of significantly higher energy than microbubble signals. This resulted in improved signal separation and high contrast-to-tissue ratios (CTR). Specifically, with a peak negative pressure (PNP) of 450 kPa applied at the focus, the CTR of B-mode images was 18.3 dB for droplets and −0.4 for microbubbles. The lateral resolution was dictated by the size of the droplet activation area, with lower pressures resulting in smaller activation areas and improved lateral resolution (0.67 mm at 450 kPa). The axial resolution in droplet images was dictated by the size of the initial droplet and independent of the properties of the transmit pulse (3.86 mm at 450 kPa). In post-processing, time-domain averaging (TDA) improved droplet and microbubble signal separation at high pressures (640 kPa and 700 kPa). Taken together, these results indicate that it is possible to generate high-sensitivity, high-contrast images of vaporization events. In the future, this has the potential to be applied in combination with droplet-mediated therapy to track treatment outcomes or as a stand-alone diagnostic system to monitor the physical properties of the surrounding environment

Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Imaging and in Vivo Circulatory Kinetics with Low-Boiling-Point Nanoscale Phase-Change Perfluorocarbon Agents

Many studies have explored phase-change contrast agents (PCCAs) that can be vaporized by an ultrasonic pulse to form microbubbles for ultrasound imaging and therapy. However, few investigations have been published demonstrating the utility and characteristics of PCCAs as contrast agents in vivo. In this study, we examine the properties of low boiling point nanoscale PCCAs evaluated in vivo, and compare data to conventional microbubbles with respect to contrast generation and circulation properties. In order to do this, we develop a custom pulse sequence to vaporize and image PCCAs using the Verasonics research platform and a clinical array transducer. Results show that droplets can produce similar contrast enhancement to microbubbles (7.29 to 18.24 dB over baseline, depending on formulation), and can be designed to circulate for as much as 3.3 times longer than microbubbles. This study also demonstrates for the first time the ability to capture contrast wash-out kinetics of the target organ as a measure of vascular perfusion