Challenges and research priorities to understand interactions between climate, ice sheets and global mean sea level during past interglacials

Quaternary interglacials provide key observations of the Earth system's responses to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They also inform on the capabilities of Earth system models, used for projecting the polar ice-sheet and sea-level responses to a regional warmth comparable to that expected by 2100 C.E. However, a number of uncertainties remain regarding the processes and feedbacks linking climate, ice-sheet and sea-level changes during past warm intervals. Here, we delineate the major research questions that need to be resolved and future research directions that should be taken by the paleoclimate, sea-level and ice-sheet research communities in order to increase confidence in the use of past interglacial climate, ice-sheet and sea-level reconstructions to constrain future predictions. These questions were formulated during a joint workshop held by the PAGES-INQUA PALSEA (PALeo constraints on SEA level rise) and the PAGES-PMIP QUIGS (QUaternary InterGlacialS) Working Groups in September 2018.PAGE

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate1. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability2,3. However, although glacial–interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland2, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3–8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6–2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3–14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future

Coherent deglacial changes in western Atlantic Ocean circulation

Abrupt climate changes in the past have been attributed to variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength. However, the exact timing and magnitude of past AMOC shifts remain elusive, which continues to limit our understanding of the driving mechanisms of such climate variability. Here we show a consistent signal of the 231Pa/230Th proxy that reveals a spatially coherent picture of western Atlantic circulation changes over the last deglaciation, during abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions. At the onset of deglaciation, we observe an early slowdown of circulation in the western Atlantic from around 19 to 16.5 thousand years ago (ka), consistent with the timing of accelerated Eurasian ice melting. The subsequent weakened AMOC state persists for over a millennium (~16.5–15 ka), during which time there is substantial ice rafting from the Laurentide ice sheet. This timing indicates a role for melting ice in driving a two-step AMOC slowdown, with a positive feedback sustaining continued iceberg calving and climate change during Heinrich Stadial 1

An 800-kyr record of global surface ocean δ18O and implications for ice volume-temperature coupling

The sequence of feedbacks that characterized 100-kyr glacial cycles of the past million years remains uncertain, hampering an understanding of the interconnections between insolation, ice sheets, greenhouse gas forcing, and climate. Critical to addressing this issue is an accurate interpretation of the marine δ18O record, the main template for the Ice Ages. This study uses a global compilation of 49 paired sea surface temperature-planktonic δ18O records to extract the mean δ18O of surface ocean seawater over the past 800 kyr, which we interpret to dominantly reflect global ice volume. The results indicate that global surface temperature, inferred deep ocean temperature, and atmospheric CO2 decrease early during each glacial cycle in close association with one another, whereas major ice sheet growth occurs later in glacial cycles. These relationships suggest that ice volume may have exhibited a threshold response to global cooling, and that global deglaciations do not occur until after the growth of large ice sheets. This phase sequence also suggests that the ice sheets had relatively little feedback on global cooling. Simple modeling shows that the rate of ice volume change through time is largely determined by the combined influence of insolation, temperature, and ice sheet size, with possible implications for the evolution of glacial cycles over the past three million years

Directly dating postglacial Greenlandic land-surface emergence at high resolution using in situ 10Be

Postglacial emergence curves are used to infer mantle rheology, delimit ice extent, and test models of the solid Earth response to changing ice and water loads. Such curves are rarely produced by direct dating of land emergence; rather, most rely on the presence of radiocarbon-datable organic material and inferences made between the age of sedimentary deposits and landforms indicative of former sea level. Here, we demonstrate a new approach, 10Be dating, to determine rates of postglacial land emergence in two different settings. In southern Greenland (Narsarsuaq/Igaliku), we date directly the exposure, as relative sea level fell, of gravel beaches and rocky outcrops allowing determination of rapid, post–Younger Dryas emergence. In western Greenland (Kangerlussuaq), we constrain Holocene isostatic response by dating the sequential stripping of terrace sediment driven by land-surface uplift, relative sea-level fall, and resulting fluvial incision. The technique we employ provides high temporal and elevation resolution important for quantifying rapid emergence immediately after deglaciation and less rapid uplift during the middle Holocene. 10Be-constrained emergence curves can improve knowledge of relative sea-level change by dating land emergence along rocky coasts, at elevations and locations where radiocarbon-datable sediments are not present, and without the lag time needed for organic material to accumulate

A tale of two hemispheres

A reconstruction of temperature from proxy records shows that the rise in global mean temperature closely resembled, but slightly lagged, the rise in carbon dioxide concentration during the last period of deglaciation