Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Treatment of alcoholic liver disease

Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) remains a major cause of liver-related mortality in the US and worldwide. The correct diagnosis of ALD can usually be made on a clinical basis in conjunction with blood tests, and a liver biopsy is not usually required. Abstinence is the hallmark of therapy for ALD, and nutritional therapy is the first line of therapeutic intervention. The role of steroids in patients with moderate to severe alcoholic hepatitis is gaining increasing acceptance, with the caveat that patients be evaluated for the effectiveness of therapy at 1 week. Pentoxifylline appears to be especially effective in ALD patients with renal dysfunction/hepatorenal syndrome. Biologics such as specific anti-TNFs have been disappointing and should probably not be used outside of the clinical trial setting. Transplantation is effective in patients with end-stage ALD who have stopped drinking (usually for ≥6 months), and both long-term graft and patient survival are excellent

A clinical, epidemological, laboratorial, histological and ultrasonographical evaluation of anti-HCV EIA-2 positive blood donors Avaliação clínica, epidemiológica, laboratorial, histológica e ultrassonográfica de doadores de sangue anti-HCV EIA-2 positivos

Between 1992 and 1997, 790 blood donors with anti-HCV EIA-2 strongly reagent (relationship between the sample optical density/cut-off > 3) detected at the blood bank serological screening, were evaluated in ambulatory environment. They were all negative for Chagas disease, syphilis, hepatitis B (HBsAg) and AIDS. Blood samples were collected at the first ambulatorial evaluation, for hemogram, biochemical tests and new serological tests for HCV (anti-HCV EIA-2). In blood samples of 226 repeatedly reagent anti-HCV EIA-2 blood donors, supplementary "immunoblot" test for HCV (RIBA-2) was used. In 209 donors, the presence of HCV-RNA was investigated by the PCR test. The abdominal ultrasonography was realized in 366 donors. In 269 patients liver biopsy was performed for the histopathological study. The follow-up of blood donors showed that 95.6% were repeatedly EIA-2 reagent, 94% were symptomless and denied any hepatitis history, with only 2% mentioning previous jaundice. In 47% of this population at least one risk factor has been detected for the HCV transmission, the use of intravenous drugs being the main one (27.8%). Blood transfusion was the second factor for HCV transmission (27.2%). Hepatomegaly was detected in 54% of the cases. Splenomegaly and signs of portal hypertension have seldom been found in the physical examination, indicating a low degree of hepatic compromising in HCV. Abdominal ultrasound showed alterations in 65% of the subjects, being the steatosis the most frequent (50%). In 83.5% of the donors submitted to the liver biopsy, the histopathological exam showed the presence of chronic hepatitis, usually classified as active (89%) with mild or moderate grade in most of the cases (99.5%). The histopathological exam of the liver was normal in 1.5% of blood donors. The RIBA-2 test and the HCV-RNA investigation by PCR were positive in respectively 91.6 and 75% of the anti-HCV EIA-2 reagent donors. The HCV-RNA research was positive in 82% of the RIBA-2 positive subjects, in 37.5% of the indeterminate RIBA-2 donors and in 9% of the negative RIBA-2 donors. Chronic hepatitis has also been observed in 50% of the histopathological exams of the anti-HCV EIA-2 reagent donors which were indeterminate RIBA-2. Among 18 blood donors with minimal changes histopathological exam 11 (61%) were HCV-RNA positive. Our blood donors anti-HCV reagent generally had clinical, laboratorial and histopathological features observed in patients with chronic HCV hepatitis and a high proportion could be identified in interviews and medical evaluation realized in blood blanks. Generally, these HCV infected donors are identified and discharged only by the serological tests results.<br>Entre 1992 e 1997 foram avaliados, ambulatorialmente, 790 doadores de sangue com teste anti-HCV EIA-2 fortemente reagente (relação entre a densidade ótica da amostra / "cut-off" > 3), que haviam sido detectados na triagem sorológica do banco de sangue. Todos eram negativos para doença de Chagas, sífilis, hepatite B (HBsAg) e AIDS. Amostras de sangue foram coletadas, na primeira consulta ambulatorial, para a realização de hemograma, exames bioquímicos e novos testes sorológicos para a HVC (anti-HCV EIA-2). Em 226 doadores anti-HCV EIA-2 repetidamente reagentes, realizou-se o teste suplementar de "immunoblot" para a HVC (RIBA-2). Em 209 doadores, pesquisou-se a presença do RNA do VHC pelo teste do PCR, através de exame automatizado (HCV-AMPLICOR, ROCHE). A ultra-sonografia abdominal foi realizada em 366 doadores e a biópsia hepática em 269 concordantes. Notou-se que 95,6% eram EIA-2 repetidamente reagentes, 94% eram assintomáticos e que apenas 2% referiram icterícia pregressa. Em 47% detectou-se, pelo menos, um fator de risco para a transmissão do VHC, sendo o uso de drogas E.V. o principal deles (27,8%). A transfusão de sangue foi o segundo fator na transmissão da HVC (27,2%). Hepatomegalia foi encontrada em 54%. Esplenomegalia e sinais de hipertensão portal foram raramente encontrados no exame físico, denotando o baixo grau de comprometimento hepático na HVC. A ultra-sonografia abdominal mostrou-se alterada em 65% dos indivíduos, sendo a esteatose a alteração mais freqüentemente observada (50%). Em 83,5% dos doadores submetidos à biópsia hepática, diagnosticou-se hepatite crônica, geralmente classificada como ativa (89%) e de grau leve ou moderado na maioria dos casos (99,5%). O histopatológico foi normal em 1,5% dos doadores. O teste de RIBA-2 e a pesquisa do RNA do VHC pelo PCR foram positivos em, respectivamente, 91,6 e 75% dos doadores anti-HCV EIA-2 reagentes. A pesquisa do RNA do VHC foi positiva em 82% dos indivíduos RIBA-2 reagentes, em 37,5% dos doadores RIBA-2 indeterminados e em 9% dos RIBA-2 negativos. Hepatite crônica foi observada em 50% dos doadores RIBA-2 indeterminados. Entre 18 doadores com alterações mínimas, ao exame histopatológico, 11 (61%) eram positivos para o RNA do VHC. Nossos doadores de sangue anti-HCV reagentes geralmente apresentam alterações clínicas, laboratoriais e histopatológicas próprias de pacientes com hepatites crônicas pelo VHC e uma elevada proporção destes podem ser identificados em entrevistas e avaliação médicas rotineiramente realizadas em bancos de sangue. Geralmente estes doadores infectados pelo VHC somente são identificados e bloqueados pelos resultados dos testes sorológicos