SHORT TERM ALBANIAN GDP FORECAST: “ONE QUARTER TO ONE YEAR AHEAD”

In forecasting, macroeconomic variables such as GDP play an important role for policy makers and for the assessment of the future state of the economy. In this paper, different models to forecast quarterly GDP growth in Albania will be presented. The first group of models bases on ARIMA structures. These models are applied directly once on GDP series and then to the main economic activities which are been used to derive GDP. The second group of models for forecast uses VAR model, and the last group are refereed on by the bridge models. In cases were bridge models are used, variables with different frequencies are forecasted for the missing period. After that, all the series are aggregated at quarterly frequencies and are used for GDP forecast. Hence, the bulk of the material is to give comparisons of those models to forecast Albanian quarterly economic growth from one quarter up to four quarters ahead in a pseudo-real time setup

Estimating quarter to quarter economic growth in Kosovo

Estimation of economic growth in real time is one of the main objectives for most of the policymakers. At this point Gross Domestic Production at quarterly frequencies is the most accurate indicator. Most of the countries that have developed this macroeconomic indicator are publishing GDP in two main forms, seasonal and not seasonal adjusted. Seasonality is a present phenomenon for most of the economic sectors at quarterly frequencies. These different rhythms caused by weather, human habits, legislation, and so on, tend to repeat themselves periodically. It is therefore natural to try to estimate their impact and take account of them in the analysis of quarterly time series. Seasonal adjustment serves to facilitate the comparisons between periods especially in the linked periods. These adjustments tried to avoid phenomena like the increase of employment in agriculture or accommodation sector during summer because of production cycle and the increase number of tourists. In this paper it will be presented a method how to do seasonal adjustment on quarterly GDP by production approach in case of Kosovo. The paper details an application of Tramo and Seats method using, to seasonal adjustment and trend-cycle estimation. Based on sector analyses will be discussed the important problem of the choice between direct and indirect adjustment of quarterly series

Is the albanian economic growth influenced by importing countries growth?

The book fits into a multidisciplinary research approach. The articles are the result of research conducted by eminent international economists, authors representing academic centres in different countries. The articles address current phenomena observed in the global economy. The authors do not aspire to comprehensively explain all the very complex and multi-dimensional economic developments, but illustrate many of these phenomena in an original way. The multi-threaded and multi-dimensional nature of the discussion in particular articles deserves attention. These include theoretical and methodological articles as well as the results of empirical research presented by the authors. The book is addressed to those persons interested in issues of economics, finance, regional economy, and the management sciences. It can be valuable for economic practitioners, members of management and supervisory boards of companies, and financial analysts, and the articles may also be useful for academicians and students.International trade, as a major factor of openness, has a significant contribution to economic growth, especially nowadays when globalization is becoming a widespread phenomenon. Country’s trade openness can be analyzed from one side by the impact of our revenue growth, which will influence the growth of domestic demand for imported goods and from the other side the revenue growth of other countries which will affect the growth of imported goods and thus in the growth of exports of analyzing country. Exports impact is very important to be treated combined with exchange rate, as another indicator of international competitiveness of countries goods. This paper will analyze the impact of economic growth of importing countries and effective exchange rate to the domestic economy growth, in our case to the Albanian economy. The increase demand for imported goods from Albanian trade exchange countries means an increase in our exports, thus an increase in aggregated demand and so in a higher economic growth. The exchange rate makes our goods more or less comparable in international market, as a result it will take a significant part on analyze. The goal of the paper is to investigate the impact of exports, other counties economic growth and exchange rate to economic growth of Albania. In the model are included a weighted index of other countries economic growth based on the imports that they make from Albania and the effective exchange rates as a variable of competiveness. The results are based on annual data collected from 2000 to 2013. The empirical results indicate that exist a positive correlation of importing countries from Albania and effective exchange rate in Albania’s economic growth

Economic Role of Government Budget Revision in the Presence of COVID-19

Fiscal policies are one of the most important instruments of government to guide the progress of the country’s economic development. They find significant use in cases where the economy is experiencing a period of recession, such as the current one caused by COVID-19. This study aims to assess the multiplier effects that budget revision has on the economy for the case of Albania, and more specifically by referring to the initial and revised budget scenario for the year 2020 which is characterized by significant changes caused by the presence of COVID-19. Referring to the multipliers from the input–output tables (IOT) the total effect that the state budget brings to the economy for a certain year is derived. From this paper, it appears that the budget restructuring that takes place during the year does not take into account the multiplier effect in the economy, but is mostly done for specific purposes related to certain government functions. In this context, it is very important that various options during budget revision are evaluated, concluding with the option that has the highest returns for the economy

PRIVATE PENSION SYSTEM IN ALBANIA

The role of private pensions in many developed economies has grown significantly in the past two decades. The situation is different for developing economies where private pensions are a new phenomenon and have a very low weight in the sector. Despite the diversity of retirement systems, these countries in many cases are characterized from low education level of the population for this service and not well-defined investment policy from the companies offering this product. The low education level implies that the publicity should be as simple as possible to be understood from considerable population and well–specified policies increase the self-confidence of the interest group. Developing economies in the same time are characterized even from high informal employment rate, influencing directly privet and public pension system. In this situation, new reforms and actions should be made in order to develop and incentivize the pension market. In the same time it is very important the pension model that has to be used, which should be in accordance with the economic, political and social characteristics of the country. The same can be said even for Albania, when it comes to pension system. The pension scheme in Albania consists of two pillars. The first pillar is PAYG funded system, publicly managed and “defined benefits” (DB) where benefits are calculated according to a specific formula based on the number of working-years, wages earned, as well as the contributions paid. The second pillar, as per international definition of it, does not exist in Albania. Instead there is a third pillar, privately managed, voluntary contributed and defined contributions (DC). During the past decade, the first pillar has demonstrated certain problems, like low net replacement rate, high dependency rate and considerable high level of evasion of contributions payment. The third pillar is a new one in Albania and the size and the development of it is very modest, as at the end of 2014, this market accounted for 0.05% of the Gross Domestic Product, or in number of contributors only 8,491. Despite the small number it has been increased, so compared with 2013 the number has been increased with 7.66%. The paper will be focused on the detailed analyze of pension system in Albania, and more concretely in the privet one. The objective is to give a detailed overview of this sector in Albania, with its difficulties and obstacles that are encountered and the risks faced today and in the future