Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Deposition and characterization of B4_{4}C/CeO2_{2} multilayers at 6.x nm extreme ultraviolet wavelengths

New multilayers of boron carbide/cerium dioxide (B4C/CeO2) combination on silicon (Si) substrate are manufactured to represent reflective-optics candidates for future lithography at 6.x nm wavelength. This is one of only a few attempts to make multilayers of this kind. Combination of several innovative experiments enables detailed study of optical properties, structural properties, and interface profiles of the multilayers in order to open up a room for further optimization of the manufacturing process. The interface profile is visualized by high-angle annular dark-field imaging which provides highly sensitive contrast to atomic number. Synchrotron based at-wavelength extreme ultraviolet(EUV) reflectance measurements near the boron (B) absorption edge allow derivation of optical parameters with high sensitivity to local atom interactions. X-ray reflectivity measurements at Cu-Kalpha(8 keV) determine the period of multilayers with high in-depth resolution. By combining these measurements and choosing robust nonlinear curve fitting algorithms, accuracy of the results has been significantly improved. It also enables a comprehensive characterization of multilayers.Interface diffusion is determined to be a major cause for the low reflectivity performance. Optical constants of B4C and CeO2 layers are derived in EUV wavelengths. Besides, optical properties and asymmetric thicknesses of inter-diffusion layers (interlayers) in EUV wavelengths near the boron edge are determined. Finally, ideal reflectivity of the B4C/CeO2 combination is calculated by using optical constants derived from the proposed measurements in order to evaluate the potentiality of the design

Solar alpha particles damage effects on UV and EUV optical coatings

Multilayers coatings for space and solar applications are usually exposed to harsh environments. Thermal stress, ion bombardments and natural aging process can affect their performances over time. We have investigated the α–particles stability of UV and EUV optical coatings suitable for high–performance solar instrumentation. Experimental procedures, analysis and preliminary results are discussed hereafter

Alignment procedure for the Gregorian telescope of the Metis coronagraph for the Solar Orbiter ESA mission

Metis is a solar coronagraph mounted on-board the Solar Orbiter ESA spacecraft. Solar Orbiter is scheduled for launch in February 2020 and it is dedicated to study the solar and heliospheric physics from a privileged close and inclined orbit around the Sun. Perihelion passages with a minimum distance of 0.28 AU are foreseen. Metis features two channels to image the solar corona in two different spectral bands: in the HI Lyman ∝ at 121.6 nm, and in the polarized visible light band (580 – 640 nm). Metis is a solar coronagraph adopting an “inverted occulted” configuration. The inverted external occulter (IEO) is a circular aperture followed by a spherical mirror which back rejects the disk light. The reflected disk light exits the instrument through the IEO aperture itself, while the passing coronal light is collected by the Metis telescope. Common to both channels, the Gregorian on-axis telescope is centrally occulted and both the primary and the secondary mirror have annular shape. Classic alignment methods adopted for on-axis telescope cannot be used, since the on-axis field is not available. A novel and ad hoc alignment set-up has been developed for the telescope alignment. An auxiliary visible optical ground support equipment source has been conceived for the telescope alignment. It is made up by four collimated beams inclined and dimensioned to illuminate different sections of the annular primary mirror without being vignetted by other optical or mechanical elements of the instrument