A nonlinear model for the investment function in Spain

This paper developpes a nonlinear single equation econometric model for the investment function in Spain, taking as starting point the equation estimated by Andrés et al. (1990). This original model, linear in its structure, incorporates oscillant dynamic relationships between the dependent and the explanatory variables. In the nonlinear model estimated in this paper, the response of the investment to production depends at any moment on the relative prices of energy, as an indicator of uncertainty into the future. This allows the investment to response with big oscillations to movements in production only in moments of great uncertainty. This alternative model introduces a nonlinear error-correction scheme, in which the adjustments to the long-run equilibrium path are affected by an exogenous variable. The model also improves the original adjustment, by reducing the residual variance in more than 30%

Forecasting inflation in the european monetary union: a disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors

Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the HICP by countries. Both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated, having more than one common factor in their trends. The paper shows that the breakdown by group of markets improves the European inflation forecasts and constitutes a framework in which general and specific indicators can be introduced for further improvement

Forecasting monthly us consumer price indexes through a disaggregated I(2) analysis

In this paper we carry a disaggregated study of the monthly US Consumer Price Index (CPI). We consider a breakdown of US CPI in four subindexes, corresponding to four groups of markets: energy, food, rest of commodities and rest of services. This is seen as a relevant way to increase information in forecasting US CPI because the supplies and demands in those markets have very different characteristics. Consumer prices in the last three components show I(2) behavior, while the energy subindex shows a lower order of integration, but with segmentation in the growth rate. Even restricting the analysis to the series that show the same order of integration, the trending behavior of prices in these markets can be very different. An I(2) cointegration analysis on the mentioned last three components shows that there are several sources of nonstationarity in the US CPI components. A common trend analysis based on dynamic factor models confirms these results. The different trending behavior in the market prices suggests that theories for price determinations could differ through markets. In this context, disaggregation could help to improve forecasting accuracy. To show that this conjecture is valid for the non-energy US CPI, we have performed a forecasting exercise of each component, computed afterwards the aggregated value of the non energy US CPI and compared it with the forecasts obtained directly from a model for the aggregate. The improvement in one year ahead forecasts with the disaggregated approach is more than 20%, where the root mean squared error is employed as a measure of forecasting performance

Strategy to Face Climatic Change-Related Problems in Cuban Cattle Raising Systems

A strategy to overcome climatic change negative effects and improve efficiency and sustainability in Cuban live- stock ecosystems is suggested. The strategy technologies and activities are translated into economic benefits for a better and more efficient utilization of internal or local resources. Besides, social advantages are promoted by an increase in first-need agricultural goods production and, hence, imports of these goods and labor force emigration to cities can be decreased. Producers must be trained in a rural farming culture to be competent in applying and adjusting technologies to their own conditions

Macroeconomic forecasts for the euro-zone and some policy implications.

This paper deals with the recent evolution, perspectives and some policy considerations for the Euro-Zone on the basis of the analysis of inflation, GDP and Industrial Production in EMU. The analysis shows that the year on year rates of growth will recover form the third quarter of 2002 for GDP and from October 2002 for Industrial Production. Regarding inflation, the ECB target of 2% will be attained between March and November 2002, but after this month, and during 2003 inflation will be around 2,1%

Forecasting monetary union inflation: a disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors.

Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Ra.IlJllonised Consumer Price Index (RCP!) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the RCP! by countries. The paper shows that both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated and then have more than one common factor. For purposes of forecasting the RCP! for the global EMU the disaggregation matters in all the horizons, one to twelve months, considered in the paper. The question is that innovations in an aggregate of non-fully cointegrated componentes will have different long-run effects depending on the common trend which they mainly stem from. Then the resulting ARIMA model for the aggregate can have a quite complex structure which restrictions which could be captured more easily through a disaggregate approachCore inflation; Cointegration; Univariate models; VeqCM;

Libertad sindical, elecciones sindicales, negociación colectiva y capacidad autoreguladora de las Administraciones Públicas

Comentario a la STS, 4ª, 17.12.201

De la enseñanza a la evaluación de lenguas con la ayuda de recursos tecnológicos: los estudiantes de educación superior y la producción oral

In this paper I present the results of a study carried out in order to assess the oral production skills of distance learning students enrolled in a university degree, and their experience with digital resources to produce their assessment tasks. Both the practice of speaking in a foreign language and the assessment of oral production skills constitute an important endeavor that often meets methodological and technological difficulties in traditional face-to-face learning environments, but more particularly in distance learning ones. After analyzing students’ needs and peculiarities coming from a distance learning context, some research has been conducted in order to test and propose an activity where the students individually design and produce a video in which they explain a topic of their choice as a continuous evaluation task. They then receive the teacher's feedback by means of a rubric which allows them to improve their learning at the same time that it enables teachers to obtain valuable information about students’ progress as regards oral productive skills. The results of the study show how students can improve their oral production skills with self-study and how the preparation of this assessment activity has a positive effect on their language proficiency as well as on their digital competence.En este artículo se presentan los resultados de un estudio realizado con el fin de evaluar las habilidades de producción oral de estudiantes de educación a distancia matriculados en una carrera universitaria, así como su experiencia con los recursos digitales para producir las tareas de evaluación. La práctica de comunicación oral en una lengua extranjera así como la evaluación de las habilidades de producción oral suponen un reto importante que a menudo encuentra dificultades metodológicas y tecnológicas en los entornos tradicionales de aprendizaje presencial, pero particularmente en los de aprendizaje a distancia. Tras analizar las necesidades y peculiaridades de los estudiantes provenientes de un contexto de educación a distancia, se ha llevado a cabo una investigación para probar y proponer una actividad donde los estudiantes individualmente diseñan y producen un video en el que explican un tema de su elección como tarea de evaluación continua. Seguidamente reciben la retroalimentación del docente a través de una rúbrica que les permite mejorar su aprendizaje al mismo tiempo que permite a los profesores obtener información valiosa sobre su progreso en cuanto a habilidades productivas orales se refiere. Los resultados del estudio muestran cómo los estudiantes pueden mejorar sus habilidades de producción oral con el autoaprendizaje y cómo la preparación de esta actividad de evaluación tiene un efecto positivo en su dominio global del idioma, así como en su competencia digital

MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR THE EURO-ZONE AND SOME POLICY IMPLICATIONS.

This paper deals with the recent evolution, perspectives and some policy considerations for the Euro-Zone on the basis of the analysis of inflation, GDP and Industrial Production in EMU. The analysis shows that the year on year rates of growth will recover form the third quarter of 2002 for GDP and from October 2002 for Industrial Production. Regarding inflation, the ECB target of 2% will be attained between March and November 2002, but after this month, and during 2003 inflation will be around 2,1%.

La fluidez oral en las locuciones: la enseñanza de la fluidez oral en inglés en contextos de aprendizaje a distancia

The aim of the present article is to highlight the role of fluency for communication and defend the attention that it should be given within the foreign language classroom. The article presents a study on material designed as part of a project from the European Union Lifelong Learning Programme (Conversational Fluency in Phrases: Fluency for Conversational Interaction (FluenCi) 505023-LLP-1-2009-1-IEKA2-KA2MP) led by a team of researchers from the Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT), and the UNED (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia). The main objective of the project was to address English language learners’ problems with perceiving and producing high-frequency phrases of spoken language which increase fluency.El objetivo de este artículo es destacar el papel que la fluidez tiene para la comunicación así como defender la atención que se le debería prestar en la clase de lengua extranjera. Este artículo presenta un estudio sobre materiales que se diseñó a partir de un proyecto dentro del programa de Lifelong Learning de la Unión Europea (Conversational Fluency in Phrases: Fluency for Conversational Interaction (FluenCi) 505023-LLP1-2009-1-IE KA2-KA2MP) dirigido por un equipo de investigadores del Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT) y la UNED (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia). El objetivo principal de dicho proyecto fue analizar los problemas que los aprendices de inglés encuentran a la hora de percibir y producir expresiones de alta frecuencia del inglés oral que aumentan la fluidez.Unión Europea 505023-LLP1-2009-1-IE-KA2-KA2M