Błąd "wyborów naukowych" w erze COVID. Odkrywanie wyzwań związanych z zarządzaniem wyborami 2020-2021 w Ugandzie

COVID-19 broke out in the period that Uganda was due to have presidential and parliamentary elections, posing a very precarious human security challenge. The ruling party (National Resistance Movement; NRM) faced the challenge of passing power to the Speaker of parliament if elections were not to be held. To mitigate the public health challenges and maintain power, the government acquiesced to an election process without public campaigns. Instead, campaigns were to be held over the radio, TV, and social media in what came to be known as 'scientific elections.' However, in a country hamstrung by massive political and bureaucratic corruption and an entrenched regime that uses violence against opponents, little attention was paid to the fairness of the process, especially in terms of access to media resources by the opposition. Conversely, as elections are about crowds and showmanship, the Ugandan Electoral Commission struggled with the ever-evolving electoral campaign process, especially as large spontaneous crowds sprang up on the campaign trail of the political candidates. The opposition needs a large crowd for legitimacy and a show of popularity. To mitigate this, the ruling party used violence against opposition members as an excuse to enforce standard operating procedures (SOPs) for the prevention of COVID-19, yet its candidates were left to gather crowds. This radicalized some of the opposition that used media outlets to call for violence and ethnic cleansing. This qualitative study delves into the extent to which the 'scientific elections' process was designed to produce a fair outcome of the 2021 elections in Uganda. This study uses the rational choice theory to explore the calculations of different stakeholders. The study relies on secondary data, especially available in media outlets, but also primary data through reports and social media and speeches of key figures in the political landscape in Uganda. The study finds that the Independent Electoral Commission was caught between two highly sophisticated opponents and did not have the capacity and agency to enforce the rules in the political game. In the end, the key facets of the 'scientific elections' process were found wanting and did not produce a fair outcome of the 2021 elections in Uganda.Pandemia COVID-19 rozpoczęła się w okresie, gdy w Ugandzie miały się odbyć wybory prezydenckie i parlamentarne, co stanowiło wyzwanie dla bezpieczeństwa ludności. Partia rządząca (Narodowy Ruch Oporu) stanęła wobec sytuacji przekazania władzy przewodniczącemu parlamentu, gdyby wybory miały się nie odbyć. Aby złagodzić problemy związane ze zdrowiem publicznym i utrzymać władzę, rząd zgodził się na proces wyborczy bez kampanii publicznych. Zamiast tego miały zostać przeprowadzone kampanie w radiu, telewizji i mediach społecznościowych, w tak zwanych "wyborach naukowych". Jednak w kraju ogarniętym masową korupcją polityczną i biurokratyczną oraz z zakorzenionym reżimem, który stosuje przemoc wobec przeciwników, niewiele uwagi poświęcono sprawiedliwości tego procesu, zwłaszcza w kwestii dostępu opozycji do zasobów medialnych. I odwrotnie, ponieważ w wyborach chodzi o tłumy i popisy, Ugandyjska Komisja Wyborcza zmagała się z ciągle ewoluującym procesem kampanii wyborczej, zwłaszcza że na szlaku kampanii kandydatów politycznych pojawiły się spore spontaniczne tłumy. Opozycja potrzebuje dużego tłumu dla legitymizacji i pokazania popularności. Partia rządząca użyła przemocy wobec członków opozycji pod pretekstem egzekwowania standardowych procedur operacyjnych w celu zapobiegania COVID-19, ale jej kandydaci mogli gromadzić tłumy. Doprowadziło to do radykalizacji części opozycji, która wykorzystywała media do wzywania do przemocy i czystek etnicznych. Opisane w artykule badanie jakościowe sprawdza, w jakim stopniu proces "wyborów naukowych" został zaprojektowany w celu uzyskania sprawiedliwego wyniku wyborów w 2021 r. w Ugandzie. Badanie wykorzystuje teorię racjonalnego wyboru do zbadania kalkulacji różnych interesariuszy. Opiera się na danych wtórnych, zwłaszcza doniesieniach medialnych, ale także na danych pierwotnych z raportów, mediów społecznościowych i przemówień kluczowych postaci ze sceny politycznej Ugandy. Z badania wynika, że niezależna komisja wyborcza miała do czynienia z dwoma wysoce wyrafinowanymi przeciwnikami i nie miała możliwości ani sprawczości do egzekwowania reguł w grze politycznej. Ostatecznie okazało się, że kluczowe aspekty procesu "wyborów naukowych" były niesprawcze i nie przyniosły sprawiedliwego wyniku wyborów w 2021 r. w Ugandzie

Examining the Human Security Challenges Emanating from the Weaponisation of Women. A Case study of Boko Haram and the Islamic State 2001-2018

The post-cold war period has witnessed an evolution in the nature of conflict from the new wars of the 1990s to asymmetric conflicts involving the weaponisation of civilians. This has achieved the twin objective of operating within the ranks of the combatants (in the case of women) as wives and child-bearers of the fighters, and inflicting harm on adversaries through suicide attacks. The weaponisation of women in the case of the wars in Syria and Nigeria has therefore elicited both human security challenges for the communities being targeted, and for the weaponised women. The biggest dilemma facing states of origin has been whether to accept the weaponised women’s return and rehabilitate them or declare them stateless. There has been a clear tendency to securitise them, especially when internal political dynamics are factored in. This qualitative study uses a case study approach to delve into the human security challenges emanating from the weaponisation of women in the case of Boko Haram and the Islamic State between 2001 and 2018. The paper further relies on content analysis to delve deeper into the discourse on human security. Through the use of a human security conceptual framework and securitisation theory, the paper argues that although once weaponised, some women become human security threats to targeted communities, and also face human security challenges during and after the insurgency, there is a need to deal with the women on a case-by-case basis rather than pursuing a blanket policy of securitising them. States need to work with international organisations to action processes aimed at delivering justice, demobilisation, rehabilitation, and the reintegration of these women. This will uphold international law and respect for human rights.El período posterior a la guerra fría ha sido testigo de una evolución en la naturaleza de los conflictos, desde las nuevas guerras de los años noventa hasta los conflictos asimétricos que implican la militarización de los civiles. Con ello se ha logrado el doble objetivo de operar dentro de las filas de los combatientes (en el caso de las mujeres) como esposas e hijas de los combatientes, e infligir daño a los adversarios mediante ataques suicidas. Por consiguiente, la militarización de las mujeres en el caso de las guerras de Siria y Nigeria ha suscitado tanto problemas de seguridad humana para las comunidades contra las que se dirigen los ataques como para las mujeres armadas. El mayor dilema al que se han enfrentado los Estados de origen ha sido si aceptar el regreso de las mujeres armadas y rehabilitarlas o declararlas apátridas. Ha habido una clara tendencia a la «securitización » especialmente cuando se tiene en cuenta la dinámica política interna. Este estudio cualitativo utiliza un enfoque de estudio de casos para ahondar en los desafíos de seguridad humana que se derivan de la militarización de las mujeres en el caso de Boko Haram y el Estado Islámico entre 2001 y 2018. El documento se basa además en un análisis de contenido para profundizar en el discurso sobre la seguridad humana. Mediante el uso de un marco conceptual de seguridad humana y la teoría de la securitización, el documento sostiene que, aunque una vez convertidas en armas, algunas mujeres se convierten en amenazas para la seguridad humana de las comunidades objetivo, y también se enfrentan a desafíos de seguridad humana durante y después de la insurgencia, es necesario tratar con las mujeres caso por caso en lugar de seguir una política general de securitización. Los Estados deben colaborar con las organizaciones internacionales en los procesos de acción encaminados a impartir justicia, desmovilizar, rehabilitar y reintegrar a esas mujeres. De esta manera se respetará el derecho internacional y el respeto de los derechos humanos

Xenophobia in urban spaces: Analyzing the drivers and social justice goals from the Ugandan-Asian debacle of 1972 and xenophobic attacks in South Africa (2008-2019)

Xenophobic attacks have long been prevalent in post-independence Africa, as shown by the expulsion of Ugandans of Asian origin from Uganda in 1972. Post-apartheid South Africa has experienced continuous xenophobic attacks on Africans since 2008. In both cases the attacks were not framed as xenophobic by the state. Instead, they were framed within a socio-economic context, where the targeted groups were criminalized and securitised by the general population. The goal of this qualitative study is to analyse the drivers and social justice goals of xenophobia in urban spaces. This is done by looking into case studies of the 1972 Ugandan-Asian expulsion in Uganda, and the xenophobic attacks on foreigners in South Africa (2008–2019). The case studies provide key debates surrounding the drivers and social justice goals of xenophobic attacks in both Uganda and South Africa. The paper thus examines the relative deprivation in both countries, which assists in explaining the onset of the xenophobic attacks. Findings are that although the Ugandan-Asian debacle and xenophobic attacks in South Africa were triggered by drivers such as income inequality, inter-group hatred, racism, poverty, unemployment and competition for resources, the quest for social justice emanating from historical socio-economic grievances was deeply entrenched in both cases. Yet the paper further argues that rather than addressing social injustice, xenophobia perpetuates it by creating new victims and shielding the governments from the spotlight on their failings especially in addressing poverty, inequality, and overall access to economic opportunities to mention but a few. The paper recommends a need for political will to tackle xenophobia and the socio-economic challenges and a need for community dialogue and inter-community linkages crucial when dealing with grievances

Inter-organisational cooperation for peace: burgeoning relationship or opportunistic liaison? A study of the cooperation between the European Union and United Nations peace operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo 2003-2008

The study seeks to understand the nature and development of the relationship between the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) in peacekeeping using the case of the peacekeeping operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) between 2003 and 2008. The EU deployment in 2003 of an Interim Emergency Multinational Force (IEMF) in DR Congo represented an important shift in the role of regional organisations, as it was deployed outside its geographical setting for peacekeeping reasons. Furthermore, the co-deployment of EU and UN forces highlighted the changing pattern in peacekeeping, as regional organisations were starting to play an important role in burden sharing with the UN, thereby enhancing the notion of effective multilateralism. However the seemingly positive rhetoric emanating from the EU and UN about the partnership did not necessarily reflect the reality of the relationship. Fundamental to the study are issues concerning the involvement of regional actors outside their geographical spheres. Key questions are raised regarding the motives of regional organisations and the UN. Such questions concern, for instance, the motives behind the UN calling for EU involvement in DR Congo (at the expense of the African Union and nations) and factors that persuaded the EU to answer the call. The dynamics of the EU-UN cooperation are analysed from a political and operational dimension. Key components of the operational cooperation are essentially command and control, logistics and communication. The political cooperation components include the course taken by actors while using the structures set up to aid the partnership and the already existing departments within both organisations that facilitated the initial interaction. Further questions arise concerning cooperation between the UN and EU from the political and operational level. These include questions concerning the informal and formal mechanisms put into place to resolve the divergences between the missions. In addition, perceptions of the recipient people and the neighbouring states are examined in order to assess if this partnership is working or not. The results of the research which entailed a number of interviews and an analysis of primary and secondary data show that the motives of the EU and UN, plus the dynamics of their cooperation can be analysed in a multi-layered paradigm involving the following levels of interaction: i) Operational level — MONUC and EUFOR RD Congo, IEMF, EUPOL and EUSEC ii) Political level — local and national actors iii) Political level — regional and international actors. For instance, from an operational perspective the UN considered EU deployment as suitable especially for the provision of resources. The EU on the other hand viewed the deployment in DR Congo as an opportunity to become a global actor especially in the aftermath of the fallout from the US and its allies’ invasion of Iraq. The local, national and regional viewed the motivation for the involvement of the EU alongside the UN with suspicion. This was mainly based on the fact that key players like Belgium and France had vested interests in the DR Congo. There was dissatisfaction regarding the marginal military role given to the regional and continental powers yet the conflict was in their backyard. The nature of the path of the cooperation, especially from an operational perspective, was not smooth. This can be attributed to the different organisational cultures and motivations between the organisations. The internal dynamics of individual organisations played a role in determining the level of cooperation between the two organisations. In light of the above, the research came to several conclusions which included the fact that, due to the complex motives and differing aims of the actors, cooperation at the political level does not necessarily dovetail with cooperation at the operational level. Although the organisations have set up a system of collaboration through the declarations of 2003 and 2007, it has not been fully utilized. National and organisational interests and organisational culture among others can hinder cooperation. Nevertheless, despite a divide between the political and operational aspects of the missions, actors in the field have found ways of addressing operational problems, though significant issues remain concerning the viability of the methods used to address them in the long run

Does Peacekeeping Reduce Violence? Assessing Comprehensive Security of Contemporary Peace Operations in Africa

Quantitative research evaluating the effect of peacekeeping operations usually links conflict abatement to the number of casualties in order to measure mission success. Such an approach is incomplete as security concerns extend far beyond the number of conflict related deaths. This narrow understanding of mission success leaves a significant assessment gap. Therefore this study is the first which presents comprehensive data using a wider understanding of violence and peace. We apply 11 indicators measuring security comprehensively. These range from the number of battle death, to violence against civilians, domestic unrest as well as domestic governance and political stability. In contrast to the mainstream quantitative literature our analysis shows that conflict often persists even with the deployment of peacekeepers. The absence of war (decline of battle death) does not automatically equate for non-violence and peace. In order to explain variation between cases we are also exploring the significance of different peacekeeping types, the size of developmental aid, rents from natural resources and the role of governance on conflict

Conduit for economic growth and development? Exploring South Africa and Brazil’s BRICS membership

For decades, the most used mainstream model for economic growth and development was that used and promoted by the global north. However, this model has not seen the same results in the developing global south as it has in the developed global north. BRICS emerged as an organisation that presented an alternative means to the global north’s approach to economic growth and development. This article examines whether BRICS membership has fostered the economic growth and development of South Africa and Brazil. This article examines the five years before and after Brazil and South Africa joined BRICS. Key findings of the study are that economic growth and development gains have been minimal. The study concludes that Brazil and South Africa have achieved political gains from their BRICS membership, which is considered to offset the absence of tangible economic growth and development gains.http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/cpsa202022-10-15hj2022Political Science

Examining the Human Security Challenges Emanating from the Weaponisation of Women. A Case study of Boko Haram and the Islamic State 2001-2018

The post-cold war period has witnessed an evolution in the nature of conflict from the new wars of the 1990s to asymmetric conflicts involving the weaponisation of civilians. This has achieved the twin objective of operating within the ranks of the combatants (in the case of women) as wives and child-bearers of the fighters, and inflicting harm on adversaries through suicide attacks. The weaponisation of women in the case of the wars in Syria and Nigeria has therefore elicited both human security challenges for the communities being targeted, and for the weaponised women. The biggest dilemma facing states of origin has been whether to accept the weaponised women’s return and rehabilitate them or declare them stateless. There has been a clear tendency to securitise them, especially when internal political dynamics are factored in. This qualitative study uses a case study approach to delve into the human security challenges emanating from the weaponisation of women in the case of Boko Haram and the Islamic State between 2001 and 2018. The paper further relies on content analysis to delve deeper into the discourse on human security. Through the use of a human security conceptual framework and securitisation theory, the paper argues that although once weaponised, some women become human security threats to targeted communities, and also face human security challenges during and after the insurgency, there is a need to deal with the women on a case-by-case basis rather than pursuing a blanket policy of securitising them. States need to work with international organisations to action processes aimed at delivering justice, demobilisation, rehabilitation, and the reintegration of these women. This will uphold international law and respect for human rights.El período posterior a la guerra fría ha sido testigo de una evolución en la naturaleza de los conflictos, desde las nuevas guerras de los años noventa hasta los conflictos asimétricos que implican la militarización de los civiles. Con ello se ha logrado el doble objetivo de operar dentro de las filas de los combatientes (en el caso de las mujeres) como esposas e hijas de los combatientes, e infligir daño a los adversarios mediante ataques suicidas. Por consiguiente, la militarización de las mujeres en el caso de las guerras de Siria y Nigeria ha suscitado tanto problemas de seguridad humana para las comunidades contra las que se dirigen los ataques como para las mujeres armadas. El mayor dilema al que se han enfrentado los Estados de origen ha sido si aceptar el regreso de las mujeres armadas y rehabilitarlas o declararlas apátridas. Ha habido una clara tendencia a la «securitización » especialmente cuando se tiene en cuenta la dinámica política interna. Este estudio cualitativo utiliza un enfoque de estudio de casos para ahondar en los desafíos de seguridad humana que se derivan de la militarización de las mujeres en el caso de Boko Haram y el Estado Islámico entre 2001 y 2018. El documento se basa además en un análisis de contenido para profundizar en el discurso sobre la seguridad humana. Mediante el uso de un marco conceptual de seguridad humana y la teoría de la securitización, el documento sostiene que, aunque una vez convertidas en armas, algunas mujeres se convierten en amenazas para la seguridad humana de las comunidades objetivo, y también se enfrentan a desafíos de seguridad humana durante y después de la insurgencia, es necesario tratar con las mujeres caso por caso en lugar de seguir una política general de securitización. Los Estados deben colaborar con las organizaciones internacionales en los procesos de acción encaminados a impartir justicia, desmovilizar, rehabilitar y reintegrar a esas mujeres. De esta manera se respetará el derecho internacional y el respeto de los derechos humanos