An Analysis of Fish Survey Data Generated by Nonexpert Volunteers in the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary

Using nonexpert volunteers in monitoring programs increases the data available for use in resource management. Both scientists and resource managers have expressed concerns about the value and accuracy of nonexpert data. We examined the quality of fish census data generated by Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF) volunteers of varying experience levels (non experts) and compared these data to data generated by experts. Analyses were done using data from three REEF field survey cruises conducted in the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary. Species composition and structure were comparable between the skill levels. Nonexpert data sets were similar to expert data sets, although expert data were more statistically powerful when the amount of data collected was equivalent between skill levels. The amount of REEF survey experience was positively correlated with the power of the data collected. The statistical power of abundance estimates varied between species. These results provide support for the use of nonexpert data by resource managers and scientists to supplement and enhance monitoring programs

Recovery of critically endangered Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus) in the Cayman Islands following targeted conservation actions.

Many large-bodied marine fishes that form spawning aggregations, such as the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), have suffered regional overfishing due to exploitation during spawning. In response, marine resource managers in many locations have established marine protected areas or seasonal closures to recover these overfished stocks. The challenge in assessing management effectiveness lies largely in the development of accurate estimates to track stock size through time. For the past 15 y, the Cayman Islands government has taken a series of management actions aimed at recovering collapsed stocks of Nassau grouper. Importantly, the government also partnered with academic and nonprofit organizations to establish a research and monitoring program (Grouper Moon) aimed at documenting the impacts of conservation action. Here, we develop an integrated population model of 2 Cayman Nassau grouper stocks based on both diver-collected mark-resight observations and video censuses. Using both data types across multiple years, we fit parameters for a state-space model for population growth. We show that over the last 15 y the Nassau grouper population on Little Cayman has more than tripled in response to conservation efforts. Census data from Cayman Brac, while more sparse, show a similar pattern. These findings demonstrate that spatial and seasonal closures aimed at rebuilding aggregation-based fisheries can foster conservation success

Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon.

Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors (e.g., competition) were more important than genetic considerations (e.g., inbreeding depression) in determining the response to supplementation

Migratory behavior of aggregating male Tiger Grouper (Mycteroperca tigris) in Little Cayman, Cayman Islands

Tiger Grouper (Mycteroperca tigris) form fish spawning aggregations (FSAs) around the winter full moons (typically January through April) in the Caribbean. Males defend territories to attract mates in a lek-like reproductive strategy. Prior studies have documented rapid declines in populations with FSA-associated fisheries. This study examines the migratory behavior of adult male Tiger Grouper in Little Cayman, Cayman Islands, to better understand the impacts of aggregation fishing. As part of the Grouper Moon Project, we acoustically tagged ten spawning male Tiger Grouper at the western end of Little Cayman in February 2015. Using a hydrophone array surrounding the island, we tracked the movements of the tagged fish for 13 months. We observed 3 migratory strategies: resident fish (n = 2) that live at the FSA site, neighboring fish (n = 5) that live within 4 km of the site, and commuter fish (n = 3) that travel over 4 km for spawning. Fish began aggregating 2 days before the full moon and left 10–12 days after the full moon, from January to May. Regardless of migratory strategy, all tagged fish that aggregated after February 2015 returned to the west end FSA. However, in January 2016, one fish appeared to attend a different FSA closer to its presumed home territory. Tiger Grouper may establish multiple FSAs around Little Cayman, and males appear to attend FSAs near their home territories. Protracted spawning seasons, FSA site infidelity, and putative FSA catchments should all be considered to ensure sustainable fisheries management for this important species.publishedVersio

Quantifying Inter- and Intra-Population Niche Variability Using Hierarchical Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Models

Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population

Fisheries Surveys Are Essential Ocean Observing Programs in a Time of Global Change: A Synthesis of Oceanographic and Ecological Data From U.S. West Coast Fisheries Surveys

As climate change and other anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems accelerate in the 21st century, there is an increasing need for sustained ocean time series. A robust and collaborative network of regional monitoring programs can detect early signs of unanticipated changes, provide a more holistic understanding of ecosystem responses, and prompt faster management actions. Fisheries-related surveys that collect fisheries-independent data (hereafter referred to as “fisheries surveys”) are a key pillar of sustainable fisheries management and are ubiquitous in the United States and other countries. From the perspective of ocean observing, fisheries surveys offer three key strengths: (1) they are sustained due to largely consistent funding support from federal and state public sector fisheries agencies, (2) they collect paired physical, chemical, and biological data, and (3) they have large and frequently overlapping spatial footprints that extend into the offshore region. Despite this, information about fisheries survey data collection can remain poorly known to the broader academic and ocean observing communities. During the 2019 CalCOFI Symposium, marking the 70th anniversary of the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI), representatives from 21 ocean monitoring programs on the North American West Coast came together to share the status of their monitoring programs and examine opportunities to leverage efforts to support regional ecosystem management needs. To increase awareness about collected ocean observing data, we catalog these ongoing ocean time series programs and detail the activities of the nine major federal or state fisheries surveys on the U.S. West Coast. We then present three case studies showing how fisheries survey data contribute to the understanding of emergent ecosystem management challenges: marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and contaminant spills. Moving forward, increased cross-survey analyses and cooperation can improve regional capacity to address emerging challenges. Fisheries surveys represent a foundational blueprint for ecosystem monitoring. As the international community moves toward a global strategy for ocean observing needs, fisheries survey programs should be included as data contributors.publishedVersio

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability

Protected fish spawning aggregations as self-replenishing reservoirs for regional recovery

Dispersal of eggs and larvae from spawning sites is critical to the population dynamics and conservation of marine fishes. For overfished species like critically endangered Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), recovery depends on the fate of eggs spawned at the few remaining aggregation sites. Biophysical models can predict larval dispersal, yet these rely on assumed values of key parameters, such as diffusion and mortality rates, which have historically been difficult or impossible to estimate. We used in situ imaging to record three-dimensional positions of individual eggs and larvae in proximity to oceanographic drifters released into egg plumes from the largest known Nassau grouper spawning aggregation. We then estimated a diffusion–mortality model and applied it to previous years' drifter tracks to evaluate the possibility of retention versus export to nearby sites within 5 days of spawning. Results indicate that larvae were retained locally in 2011 and 2017, with 2011 recruitment being a substantial driver of population recovery on Little Cayman. Export to a nearby island with a depleted population occurred in 2016. After two decades of protection, the population appears to be self-replenishing but also capable of seeding recruitment in the region, supporting calls to incorporate spawning aggregation protections into fisheries management.publishedVersio

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha−1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha−1 (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha−1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha−1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations