Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM

Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins. Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to 1961–1990. We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series

A gauge invariant chiral unitary framework for kaon photo- and electroproduction on the proton

We present a gauge invariant approach to photoproduction of mesons on nucleons within a chiral unitary framework. The interaction kernel for meson-baryon scattering is derived from the chiral effective Lagrangian and iterated in a Bethe-Salpeter equation. Within the leading order approximation to the interaction kernel, data on kaon photoproduction from SAPHIR, CLAS and CBELSA/TAPS are analyzed in the threshold region. The importance of gauge invariance and the precision of various approximations in the interaction kernel utilized in earlier works are discussed.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figs, EPJ A styl

The Category of Node-and-Choice Forms, with Subcategories for Choice-Sequence Forms and Choice-Set Forms

The literature specifies extensive-form games in many styles, and eventually I hope to formally translate games across those styles. Toward that end, this paper defines $\mathbf{NCF}$, the category of node-and-choice forms. The category's objects are extensive forms in essentially any style, and the category's isomorphisms are made to accord with the literature's small handful of ad hoc style equivalences. Further, this paper develops two full subcategories: $\mathbf{CsqF}$ for forms whose nodes are choice-sequences, and $\mathbf{CsetF}$ for forms whose nodes are choice-sets. I show that $\mathbf{NCF}$ is "isomorphically enclosed" in $\mathbf{CsqF}$ in the sense that each $\mathbf{NCF}$ form is isomorphic to a $\mathbf{CsqF}$ form. Similarly, I show that $\mathbf{CsqF_{\tilde a}}$ is isomorphically enclosed in $\mathbf{CsetF}$ in the sense that each $\mathbf{CsqF}$ form with no-absentmindedness is isomorphic to a $\mathbf{CsetF}$ form. The converses are found to be almost immediate, and the resulting equivalences unify and simplify two ad hoc style equivalences in Kline and Luckraz 2016 and Streufert 2019. Aside from the larger agenda, this paper already makes three practical contributions. Style equivalences are made easier to derive by [1] a natural concept of isomorphic invariance and [2] the composability of isomorphic enclosures. In addition, [3] some new consequences of equivalence are systematically deduced.Comment: 43 pages, 9 figure

On the recurrence and robust properties of Lorenz'63 model

Lie-Poisson structure of the Lorenz'63 system gives a physical insight on its dynamical and statistical behavior considering the evolution of the associated Casimir functions. We study the invariant density and other recurrence features of a Markov expanding Lorenz-like map of the interval arising in the analysis of the predictability of the extreme values reached by particular physical observables evolving in time under the Lorenz'63 dynamics with the classical set of parameters. Moreover, we prove the statistical stability of such an invariant measure. This will allow us to further characterize the SRB measure of the system.Comment: 44 pages, 7 figures, revised version accepted for pubblicatio

Future weather

The impact of climate change will manifest itself in our future weather. In the project Future Weather we investigated a number of these impact relevant weather conditions in the (present and) future climate. We focussed primarily on changes in precipitation extremes on different scales ranging from intense showers at local scales to multi-day precipitation extremes over the Rhine catchment area. On an intermediate scale, regional differences in precipitation within the Netherlands are studied. Finally, we considered a worst case scenario of a combined wind and discharge extreme

Mesoscopic structure conditions the emergence of cooperation on social networks

We study the evolutionary Prisoner's Dilemma on two social networks obtained from actual relational data. We find very different cooperation levels on each of them that can not be easily understood in terms of global statistical properties of both networks. We claim that the result can be understood at the mesoscopic scale, by studying the community structure of the networks. We explain the dependence of the cooperation level on the temptation parameter in terms of the internal structure of the communities and their interconnections. We then test our results on community-structured, specifically designed artificial networks, finding perfect agreement with the observations in the real networks. Our results support the conclusion that studies of evolutionary games on model networks and their interpretation in terms of global properties may not be sufficient to study specific, real social systems. In addition, the community perspective may be helpful to interpret the origin and behavior of existing networks as well as to design structures that show resilient cooperative behavior.Comment: Largely improved version, includes an artificial network model that fully confirms the explanation of the results in terms of inter- and intra-community structur

Budget Processes: Theory and Experimental Evidence

This paper studies budget processes, both theoretically and experimentally. We compare the outcomes of bottom-up and top-down budget processes. It is often presumed that a top-down budget process leads to a smaller overall budget than a bottom-up budget process. Ferejohn and Krehbiel (1987) showed theoretically that this need not be the case. We test experimentally the theoretical predictions of their work. The evidence from these experiments lends strong support to their theory, both at the aggregate and the individual subject level

Delegating Clozapine Monitoring to Advanced Nurse Practitioners:An Exploratory, Randomized Study to Assess the Effect on Prescription and Its Safety

To test whether: (1) psychiatrists will prescribe clozapine more often if they can delegate the monitoring tasks to an advanced nurse practitioner (ANP), (2) clozapine monitoring by an ANP is at least as safe as monitoring by a psychiatrist. Patients from 23 Dutch outpatient teams were assessed for an indication for clozapine. ANPs affiliated to these teams were randomized to Condition A: clozapine monitoring by an ANP, or Condition B: monitoring by the psychiatrist. The safety of monitoring was evaluated by determining whether the weekly neutrophil measurements were performed. Staff and patients were blinded regarding the first hypothesis. Of the 173 patients with an indication for clozapine at baseline, only seven in Condition A and four in Condition B were prescribed clozapine (Odds Ratio = 2.24, 95% CI 0.61-8.21; p = 0.225). These low figures affected the power of this study. When we considered all patients who started with clozapine over the 15-month period (N = 49), the Odds Ratio was 1.90 (95% CI 0.93-3.87; p = 0.078). With regard to the safety of the monitoring of the latter group of patients, 71.2% of the required neutrophil measurements were performed in condition A and 67.3% in condition B (OR = 0.98; CI = 0.16-3.04; p = 0.98). Identifying patients with an indication for clozapine does not automatically lead to improved prescription rates, even when an ANP is available for the monitoring. Clozapine-monitoring performed by an ANP seemed as safe as that by a psychiatrist