Valuation of Biodiversity for Use in New Product Research in a Model of Sequential Search

We develop a model of search in which a researcher chooses the size of sequential batches of samples to test. While earlier work has considered similar questions, the contribution of this paper is to use the search model to place a value on the marginal research opportunity. The valuation of such opportunities may be of little interest or relevance in many of the contexts in which search models are employed, but we apply our analysis to an area of considerable societal interest: the valuation of biological diversity for use in new product research. While data from which to make inferences are limited, we find that, using plausible estimates of relevant parameters, the value of biodiversity in these applications is negligible.

Investments in Biodiversity Prospecting and Incentives for Conservation

There is considerable interest in biodiversity prospecting (the search for valuable new products from natural sources) as a conservation strategy. In an earlier paper, we have argued that the value of the marginal species (and, by extension, the incentives for the conservation of the habitat on which it is found) is small. In this paper, we show that investments in biodiversity prospecting are unlikely to increase incentives for conservation by much. If the value of the marginal species were appreciable, researchers ought already to have made investments to exploit it. If it is not, it is doubtful that additional investments will generate any substantial increase. It is important to be clear about our findings: we are not saying that none of the myriad uses of biodiversity is important. Quite to the contrary, we are saying that if biodiversity is important, more effective strategies for its conservation must be found.

Tariff Liberalization, Wood Trade Flows, and Global Forests

This paper examines the question of the likely effects on global forests of a further reduction in wood products tariffs including both solid wood products and pulp and paper, as has been proposed to the World Trade Organization (WTO) by the Asia Pacific Economic Community (APEC). The tariff reductions would be an extension of the tariff reductions associated with the Uruguay Round (Federal Register 1999). The questions include both how international trade is likely to change in response to further tariff reduction and also the implications for timber harvests and forests generally of such trade liberalization in the various forest regions. The paper finds that the evidence suggests further reductions in tariffs on forest products are likely to generate only very modest increases in worldwide trade and production, and the increased harvest pressures on forests due to tariff reduction should be quite modest. The major countries likely to experience export and production increases are found largely in the northern hemisphere and are likely to be able to facilitate additional harvests with minimal effects on the forests due to the modest nature of the impact, new forest practices laws, new forest set-asides, and movement toward improved practices designed to achieve multifaceted sustainable forestry. Furthermore, there is little reason to expect that tariff reductions will significantly increase harvests from tropical forests. Earlier tariff reductions appear to have had minimal impacts on tropical harvests or exports. Nevertheless, tropical forests will remain under deforestation pressure due to land conversion objectives, commonly to provide additional agricultural lands.

Decomposition nitrogen is better retained than simulated deposition from mineral amendments in a temperate forest

Nitrogen (N) deposition (NDEP) drives forest carbon (C) sequestration but the size of this effect is still uncertain. In the field, an estimate of these effects can be obtained by applying mineral N fertilizers over the soil or forest canopy. A 15N label in the fertilizer can be then used to trace the movement of the added N into ecosystem pools and deduce a C effect. However, N recycling via litter decomposition provides most of the nutrition for trees, even under heavy NDEP inputs. If this recycled litter nitrogen is retained in ecosystem pools differently to added mineral N, then estimates of the effects of NDEP on the relative change in C (∆C/∆N) based on short-term isotope-labelled mineral fertilizer additions should be questioned. We used 15N labelled litter to track decomposed N in the soil system (litter, soils, microbes, and roots) over 18 months in a Sitka spruce plantation and directly compared the fate of this 15N to an equivalent amount in simulated NDEP treatments. By the end of the experiment, three times as much 15N was retained in the O and A soil layers when N was derived from litter decomposition than from mineral N additions (60% and 20%, respectively), primarily because of increased recovery in the O layer. Roots expressed slightly more 15N tracer from litter decomposition than from simulated mineral NDEP (7.5% and 4.5%) and compared to soil recovery, expressed proportionally more 15N in the A layer than the O layer, potentially indicating uptake of organic N from decomposition. These results suggest effects of NDEP on forest ∆C/∆N may not be apparent from mineral 15N tracer experiments alone. Given the importance of N recycling, an important but underestimated effect of NDEP is its influence on the rate of N release from litter

A Review of Dietary Prevention of Human Papillomavirus-Related Infection of the Cervix and Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia

The natural history of cervical cancer suggests that prevention can be achieved by modification of the host's immune system through a nutrient-mediated program. This study reviews the preventive role of dietary intake on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) induced by human papillomavirus (HPV). Electronic databases were searched using relevant keywords such as, but not limited to, human papillomavirus infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, lifestyle factors, nutrients intake, and diet. High consumption of fruit and vegetables appears to be protective against CIN. The findings also highlight the possibility of consuming high levels of specific nutrients, vitamins, and minerals, and retaining sufficient level of these elements in the body, especially those with high antioxidants and antiviral properties, to prevent progression of transient and persistent HPV infections to high-grade CIN 2 and 3 (including in situ cervical cancer). The protective effect is not significant for high-risk HPV persistent infections and invasive cervical cancer. Although it appears that intake of specific nutrients, vitamins, and minerals may be good in CIN prevention, there is lack of evidence from controlled trial to confirm this. Health professionals shall focus on implementation of a balanced-diet prevention strategy at an early stage for cervical cancer prevention

A Retrospective Cohort Study of the Potency of lipid-lowering therapy and Race-gender Differences in LDL cholesterol control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reasons for race and gender differences in controlling elevated low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol may be related to variations in prescribed lipid-lowering therapy. We examined the effect of lipid-lowering drug treatment and potency on time until LDL control for black and white women and men with a baseline elevated LDL.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 3,484 older hypertensive patients with dyslipidemia in 6 primary care practices over a 4-year timeframe. Potency of lipid-lowering drugs calculated for each treated day and summed to assess total potency for at least 6 and up to 24 months. Cox models of time to LDL control within two years and logistic regression models of control within 6 months by race-gender adjust for: demographics, clinical, health care delivery, primary/specialty care, LDL measurement, and drug potency.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Time to LDL control decreased as lipid-lowering drug potency increased (P < 0.001). Black women (N = 1,440) received the highest potency therapy (P < 0.001) yet were less likely to achieve LDL control than white men (N = 717) (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.66 [95% CI 0.56-0.78]). Black men (N = 666) and white women (N = 661) also had lower adjusted HRs of LDL control (0.82 [95% CI 0.69, 0.98] and 0.75 [95% CI 0.64-0.88], respectively) than white men. Logistic regression models of LDL control by 6 months and other sensitivity models affirmed these results.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Black women and, to a lesser extent, black men and white women were less likely to achieve LDL control than white men after accounting for lipid-lowering drug potency as well as diverse patient and provider factors. Future work should focus on the contributions of medication adherence and response to treatment to these clinically important differences.</p

Cutoff value determines the performance of a semi-quantitative immunochemical faecal occult blood test in a colorectal cancer screening programme

BACKGROUND: The cutoff of semi-quantitative immunochemical faecal occult blood tests (iFOBTs) influences colonoscopy referrals and detection rates. We studied the performance of an iFOBT (OC-Sensor) in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at different cutoffs. METHODS: Dutch screening participants, 50-75 years of age, with average CRC risk and an iFOBT value >or=50 ng ml(-1) were offered colonoscopy. The detection rate was the percentage of participants with CRC or advanced adenomas (>or=10 mm, >or=20% villous, high-grade dysplasia). The number needed to scope (NNTScope) was the number of colonoscopies to be carried out to find one person with CRC or advanced adenomas. RESULTS: iFOBT values >or=50 ng ml(-1) were detected in 526 of 6157 participants (8.5%) and 428 (81%) underwent colonoscopy. The detection rate for advanced lesions (28 CRC and 161 with advanced adenomas) was 3.1% (95% confidence interval: 2.6-3.5%) and the NNTScope was 2.3. At 75 ng ml(-1), the detection rate was 2.7%, the NNTScope was 2.0 and the CRC miss rate compared with 50 ng ml(-1) was <5% (N=1). At 100 ng ml(-1), the detection rate was 2.4% and the NNTScope was <2. Compared with 50 ng ml(-1), up to 200 ng ml(-1) CRC miss rates remained at 16% (N=4). CONCLUSIONS: Cutoffs below the standard 100 ng ml(-1) resulted in not only higher detection rates of advanced lesions but also more colonoscopies. With sufficient capacity, 75 ng ml(-1) might be advised; if not, up to 200 ng ml(-1) CRC miss rates are acceptable compared with the decrease in performed colonoscopies

Forestry for a low carbon future. Integrating forests and wood products in climate change strategies

Following the introduction, Chapter 2 provides an overview of mitigation in the forest sector, addressing the handling of forests under UNFCCC. Chapters 3 to 5 focus on forest-based mitigation options – afforestation, reforestation, REDD+ and forest management – and Chapters 6 and 7 focus on wood-product based options – wood energy and green building and furnishing. The publication describes these activities in the context of UNFCCC rules, assessing their mitigation potential and economic attrac tiveness as well as opportunities and challenges for implementation. Chapter 8 discusses the different considerations involved in choosing the right mix of options as well as some of the instruments and means for implementation. Chapter 8 also highlights the co-benefits generated by forest-based mitigation and emphasizes that economic assessment of mitigation options needs to take these benefits into account. The concluding chapter assesses national commitments under UNFCCC involving forest miti gation and summarizes the challenges and opportunities

Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development) and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development). Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.</p