Financial Stability in the Baltics

The authors test the hypothesis of procyclicality of banking sector results in the Baltic economies. Their estimates suggest that a slowdown in economic activity is likely to accelerate the growth of the nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio in the Baltics. They also support the hypothesis that a rapid growth of credit harms loan performance, most likely due to soft-loan constraints and macroeconomic overheating. Higher concentration in banking market coincides with relatively higher nonperforming loans. Compliance with the Basel core principles improves the quality of the loan portfolio.cyclicality, non-performing loans, systemic risk, asset quality

Estimating Coal Price Dynamics with the Principal Components Method

The future use of coal depends on environmental protection measures and the Kyoto Protocol, the price of CO2 emission coupons, consumption, new technologies, the price of other energy sources and the liberalization of the electricity markets. The prices of emission coupons will impact the costs of electricity energy production. Due to the relatively higher reference costs of alternative energy sources, we can not expect that the share of coal as an energy source will lower significantly as a source of electricity production in the future. From the point of view of regional economic aspects and the reference costs of electricity production, we could state that using coal in the near future is also tied to the socio-economic aspects of mining domestic coal. Using it in thermo plants is also enabled by the conditions of priority dispatching (since 2000) in the EU economies. We assessed the influence of prices and the use of other energy sources, environmental measures, energy efficiency and the influence of electricity market liberalisation on coal price movements. Our estimation shows that, if the prices of other energy sources and electricity increase, the price of coal increases. If the use of other energy sources increases, and if the gross uses of industrial waste and renewable resources increase, the price of coal decreases. Environmental protection measures contribute to an increase in coal prices. A higher quotient of energy efficiency decelerates the price of coal. And the euro (to dollar) appreciation decelerates coal prices.coal prices, environmental protection measures, priority dispatching

The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector

Rapid credit growth has been one of the most pervasive developments in recent years in Central and Eastern Europe. We tested for the significance of macroeconomic and banking sector variables that condition non‐performing loan ratios and the hypothesis of procyclicality between economic activity and improving banking‐sector results in the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania. The theory of procyclicality between economic activity and the non‐performing loan ratio was proven. The increased economic activity improved the loan portfolio quality of the banking sector, as indicated by a lower NPL ratio. Due to a high share of loans denominated in a foreign currency and the fact of productivity gains in the tradable sector, the appreciation of the real exchange rate contributed to an improvement in loan portfolio quality. The procyclicality of banking sector performance and high economic activities growth could be a signal of an economy overheating and therefore a slowdown in economic activity is likely to accelerate the growth of the non‐performing loan ratio in the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania. First Publish Online: 14 Oct 201

Naravni plin in slovensko gospodarstvo

Article empirically investigates how intensive is the impact of natural gas prices on production by industries in Slovenian economy. Natural gas price movements can help us in forecasting the movements in electricity, natural gas, steam, hot water supplies, the production of metals, textiles, leather, footwear, leather and fur products, clothes, the production of pulp, paper, cardboard and products from paper and cardboard, the production of products from rubber and plastic materials, processing industry and the production of furniture, the production of intermediary consumption products and recycling.V članku empirično preverjamo intenziteto vpliva dinamike gibanj cene plina na posamezne dejavnosti slovenskega gospodarstva. Gibanje cene plina seveda lahko pomaga pri prognoziranju gibanja oskrbe z električno energijo, plinom, paro in toplo vodo, kakor tudi proizvodnje kovin, proizvodnje tekstilij, usnja, obutve, usnjenih in krznenih izdelkov, oblačil, proizvodnje vlaknin, papirja, kartona ter izdelkov iz papirja in kartona, proizvodnje izdelkov iz gume in plastičnih mas, predelovalne dejavnost in proizvodnje pohištva, proizvodov za vmesno porabo ter reciklaže

The Overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicalïty of systemic risk in the banking sector

Rapid credit growth has been one of the most pervasive developments in recent years in Central and Eastern Europe. We tested for the significance of macroeconomic and banking sector variables that condition non-performing loan ratios and the hypothesis of procyclicality between economic activity and improving banking-sector results in the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania. The theory of procyclicality between economic activity and the nonperforming loan ratio was proven. The increased economic activity improved the loan portfolio quality of the banking sector, as indicated by a lower NPL ratio. Due to a high share of loans denominated in a foreign currency and the fact of productivity gains in the tradable sector, the appreciation of the real exchange rate contributed to an improvement in loan portfolio quality. The procyclicality of banking sector performance and high economic activities growth could be a signal of an economy overheating and therefore a slowdown in economic activity is likely to accelerate the growth of the non-performing loan ratio in the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania

Naravni plini in slovensko gospodarstvo

V članku empirično preverjamo intenziteto vpliva dinamike gibanj cene plina na posamezne dejavnosti slovenskega gospodarstva. Gibanje cene plina seveda lahko pomaga pri prognoziranju gibanja oskrbe z električno energijo, plinom, paro in toplo vodo, kakor tudi proizvodnje kovin, proizvodnje tekstilij, usnja, obutve, usnjenih in krznenih izdelkov, oblačil, proizvodnje vlaknin, papirja, kartona ter izdelkov iz papirja in kartona, proizvodnje izdelkov iz gume in plastičnih mas, predelovalne dejavnost in proizvodnje pohištva, proizvodov za vmesno porabo ter reciklaže.Article empirically investigates how intensive is the impact of natural gas prices on production by industries in Slovenian economy. Natural gas price movements can help us in forecasting the movements in electricity, natural gas, steam, hot water supplies, the production of metals, textiles, leather, footwear, leather and fur products, clothes, the production of pulp, paper, cardboard and products from paper and cardboard, the production of products from rubber and plastic materials, processing industry and the production of furniture, the production of intermediary consumption products and recycling

The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states

Rapid credit growth has been one of the most pervasive developments in recent years in Central and Eastern Europe. Our estimates support the hypothesis that the growth of credit and the amount of available finance might harm banking performance and deteriorate non-performing loans (NPL) dynamics, most probably due to the overheating of economies in the five NMSs. The procyclicality of banking sector performance and high economic activities growth is a signal of an economy overheating and therefore a slowdown in economic activity is likely to accelerate the growth of the NPL ratio.Cyclicality Non-performing loans Loan portfolio Systemic risk Economic growth