Targeted search for continuous gravitational waves: Bayesian versus maximum-likelihood statistics

We investigate the Bayesian framework for detection of continuous gravitational waves (GWs) in the context of targeted searches, where the phase evolution of the GW signal is assumed to be known, while the four amplitude parameters are unknown. We show that the orthodox maximum-likelihood statistic (known as F-statistic) can be rediscovered as a Bayes factor with an unphysical prior in amplitude parameter space. We introduce an alternative detection statistic ("B-statistic") using the Bayes factor with a more natural amplitude prior, namely an isotropic probability distribution for the orientation of GW sources. Monte-Carlo simulations of targeted searches show that the resulting Bayesian B-statistic is more powerful in the Neyman-Pearson sense (i.e. has a higher expected detection probability at equal false-alarm probability) than the frequentist F-statistic.Comment: 12 pages, presented at GWDAW13, to appear in CQ

Very Luminous Carbon Stars in the Outer Disk of the Triangulum Spiral Galaxy

Stars with masses in the range from about 1.3 to 3.5 Mo pass through an evolutionary stage where they become carbon stars. In this stage, which lasts a few Myr, these stars are extremely luminous pulsating giants. They are so luminous in the near-infrared that just a few of them can double the integrated luminosity of intermediate-age (0.6 to 2 Gyr) Magellanic Cloud clusters at 2.2 microns. Astronomers routinely use such near-infrared observations to minimize the effects of dust extinction, but it is precisely in this band that carbon stars can contribute hugely. The actual contribution of carbon stars to the outer disk light of evolving spiral galaxies has not previously been morphologically investigated. Here we report new and very deep near-IR images of the Triangulum spiral galaxy M33=NGC 598, delineating spectacular arcs of carbon stars in its outer regions. It is these arcs which dominate the near-infrared m=2 Fourier spectra of M33. We present near-infrared photometry with the Hale 5-m reflector, and propose that the arcs are the signature of accretion of low metallicity gas in the outer disk of M33.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Revised version submitted to A&A Letter

Bayesian detection of unmodeled bursts of gravitational waves

The data analysis problem of coherently searching for unmodeled gravitational-wave bursts in the data generated by a global network of gravitational-wave observatories has been at the center of research for almost two decades. As data from these detectors is starting to be analyzed, a renewed interest in this problem has been sparked. A Bayesian approach to the problem of coherently searching for gravitational wave bursts with a network of ground-based interferometers is here presented. We demonstrate how to systematically incorporate prior information on the burst signal and its source into the analysis. This information may range from the very minimal, such as best-guess durations, bandwidths, or polarization content, to complete prior knowledge of the signal waveforms and the distribution of sources through spacetime. We show that this comprehensive Bayesian formulation contains several previously proposed detection statistics as special limiting cases, and demonstrate that it outperforms them.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, revisions based on referee comment

Dynamics of Plume-Triple Junction Interaction: Results from a Series of Three-Dimensional Numerical Models and Implications for the Formation of Oceanic Plateaus

Mantle plumes rising in the vicinity of mid-ocean ridges often generate anomalies in melt production and seafloor depth. This study investigates the dynamical interactions between a mantle plume and a ridge-ridge-ridge triple junction, using a parameter space approach and a suite of steady state, three-dimensional finite element numerical models. The top domain boundary is composed of three diverging plates, with each assigned half-spreading rates with respect to a fixed triple junction point. The bottom boundary is kept at a constant temperature of 1350°C except where a two-dimensional, Gaussian-shaped thermal anomaly simulating a plume is imposed. Models vary plume diameter, plume location, the viscosity contrast between plume and ambient mantle material, and the use of dehydration rheology in calculating viscosity. Importantly, the model results quantify how plume-related anomalies in mantle temperature pattern, seafloor depth, and crustal thickness depend on the specific set of parameters. To provide an example, one way of assessing the effect of conduit position is to calculate normalized area, defined to be the spatial dispersion of a given plume at specific depth (here selected to be 50km) divided by the area occupied by the same plume when it is located under the triple junction. For one particular case modeled where the plume is centered in an intraplate position 100km from the triple junction, normalized area is just 55%. Overall, these models provide a framework for better understanding plateau formation at triple junctions in the natural setting and a tool for constraining subsurface geodynamical processes and plume properties

Joint searches between gravitational-wave interferometers and high-energy neutrino telescopes: science reach and analysis strategies

Many of the astrophysical sources and violent phenomena observed in our Universe are potential emitters of gravitational waves (GWs) and high-energy neutrinos (HENs). A network of GW detectors such as LIGO and Virgo can determine the direction/time of GW bursts while the IceCube and ANTARES neutrino telescopes can also provide accurate directional information for HEN events. Requiring the consistency between both, totally independent, detection channels shall enable new searches for cosmic events arriving from potential common sources, of which many extra-galactic objects.Comment: 4 pages. To appear in the Proceedings of the 2d Heidelberg Workshop: "High-Energy Gamma-rays and Neutrinos from Extra-Galactic Sources", Heidelberg (Germany), January 13-16, 200

Double Exchange Alone Does Not Explain the Resistivity of La1−xSrxMnO3La_{1-x} Sr_x MnO_3

The $La_{1-x} Sr_x MnO_3$ system with $0.2 \lesssim x \lesssim 0.4$ has traditionally been modelled with a ``double exchange'' Hamiltonian, in which it is assumed that the only relevant physics is the tendency of carrier hopping to line up neighboring spins. We present a solution of the double exchange model, show it is incompatible with many aspects of the resistivity data, and propose that a strong electron-phonon interaction arising from a Jahn-Teller splitting of the outer Mn d-level plays a crucial role.Comment: Figure available via concentional mail. Contact [email protected]

Beyond locutionary denotations: exploring trust between practitioners and policy

This study reports the findings of a research on the trust relationship between practitioners in the Skills for Life (SfL) area and the policy that informs their practice. The exploration of this relationship was premised on an extended notion of trust relationship which draws from the Speech Act theory of Austin (1962; Searle 1969; Kissine 2008), leading to the claim that the existence of different layers of imports in textual analysis makes it possible for a trust relationship to exist between the human/physical and the non human/non physical. The study found that the majority of practitioners in the SfL field trust policy to deliver its inherent policy only to a limited extent. Amongst others, the study identified the impact of the perlocutionary import of policy text on practitioners as a viable reason for this limited level of trust. Such perlocutionary imports, it also found, have adverse impact on practitioners who are considered to have drawn from previous experience to mediate the import of contemporary policies

Complementing chronic frailty assessment at hospital admission with an electronic frailty index (FI-Laboratory) comprising routine blood test results

BACKGROUND: Acutely ill and frail older adults have complex social and health care needs. It is important to understand how this complexity affects acute outcomes for admission to hospital. We validated a frailty index using routine admission laboratory tests with outcomes after patients were admitted to hospital. METHODS: In a prospective cohort of older adults admitted to a large tertiary hospital in the United Kingdom, we created a frailty index from routine admission laboratory investigations (FI-Laboratory) linked to data comprising hospital outcomes. We evaluated the association between the FI-Laboratory and total days spent in hospital, discharge to a higher level of care, readmission and mortality. RESULTS: Of 2552 admissions among 1750 older adults, we were able to generate FI-Laboratory values for 2254 admissions (88.3% of the cohort). More than half of admitted patients were women (55.3%) and the mean age was 84.6 (SD 14.0) years. We found that the FI-Laboratory correlated weakly with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; r2 = 0.09). An increase in the CFS and the equivalent of 3 additional abnormal laboratory test results in the FI-Laboratory, respectively, were associated with an increased proportion of inpatient days (rate ratios [RRs] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.52; and 1.47, 95% CI 1.41-1.54), discharge to a higher level of care (odd ratios [ORs] 1.39, 95% CI 1.27-1.52; and 1.30, 95% CI 1.16-1.47) and increased readmission rate (hazard ratios [HRs] 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.37; and 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.26). Increases in the CFS and FI-Laboratory were associated with increased mortality HRs of 1.39 (95% CI 1.28-1.51) and 1.45 (95% CI 1.37-1.54), respectively. INTERPRETATION: We determined that FI-Laboratory, distinct from baseline frailty, could be used to predict risk of many adverse outcomes. The score is therefore a useful way to quantify the degree of acute illness in frail older adults