The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004

The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. Marketing assumptions applied to advisory program track records are intended to accurately depict “real-world” marketing conditions facing a representative central Illinois corn and soybean farmer. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) on-farm or commercial physical storage costs, as well as interest opportunity costs, are charged to post-harvest sales, iii) brokerage costs are subtracted for all futures and options transactions and iv) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing loan recommendations made by advisory programs are followed wherever feasible. Based on these and other assumptions, the net price received by a subscriber to market advisory programs is calculated for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. Market and farmer benchmarks are developed for the performance evaluations. Two market benchmarks are specified in order to test the sensitivity of performance results to changing benchmark assumptions. The 24-month market benchmark averages market prices for the entire 24-month marketing window. The 20-month market benchmark is computed in a similar fashion, except the first four months of the marketing window are omitted. Given the uncertainties involved in measuring the average price received by farmers, two alternative farmer benchmarks for central Illinois are specified. The market and farmer benchmarks are computed using the same assumptions applied to advisory program track records. Five basic indicators of performance are applied to advisory program prices and revenues over 1995-2004. Results show that advisory program prices fall in the top-third of the price range relatively infrequently. There is limited evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. The evidence is somewhat more positive with respect to farmer benchmarks, even after taking risk into account. For example, the average advisory return relative to the farmer benchmarks is 8 to $12 per acre with only a marginal increase in risk. Even though this return is small and mainly from corn, it nonetheless represents a non-trivial increase in net farm income per acre for grain farms in central Illinois. Test results also suggest that it is difficult to predict the year-to-year pricing performance of advisory programs based on past pricing performance. However, there is some evidence that performance is more predictable over longer time horizons, particularly at the extremes of performance rankings. The results raise the interesting possibility that even though advisory services do not appear to “beat the market,” they nonetheless provide the opportunity for some farmers to improve performance relative to the market. Mirroring debates about stock investing, the relevant issue is whether farmers can most effectively improve marketing performance by pursuing “active” strategies, like those recommended by advisory services, or “passive” strategies, which involve routinely spreading sales across the marketing window.Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

Cultural Resources Survey of 98 Acres for the Proposed Taylor Morrison Development Project, Fort Bend County, Texas

In November 2017, Gray & Pape, Inc. of Houston, Texas, conducted an intensive pedestrian cultural resources survey and deep testing on property subsuming a total of approximately 40 hectares (98 acres) proposed for development in Fort Bend County, Texas. No Texas Antiquities Permit was required as all survey work was completed on privately-owned property. The United States Army Corps of Engineers-Galveston District has been identified as the Lead Agency for this project. The goals of the survey were to establish whether previously unidentified buried archaeological resources were located within or immediately adjacent to the project’s Area of Potential Effects, which is defined as all 40 hectares (98 acres), and if so to provide management recommendations for such resources. The survey was undertaken in accordance with requirements set forth by Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, specifically requirements set forth by 36 CFR 800. The procedures to be followed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers to fulfill the requirements set forth in the National Historic Preservation Act, other applicable historic preservation laws, and Presidential directives as they relate to the regulatory program of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (33 CFR Parts 320-334) are articulated in the Regulatory Program of the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Part 325 - Processing of Department of the Army Permits, Appendix C - Procedures for the Protection of Historic Properties. All fieldwork and reporting activities were completed with reference to State laws and guidelines (the Antiquities Code of Texas). Survey and site identification followed Texas Antiquities Code standards. Fieldwork took place between November 13 and November 22, and required 116-person hours to complete. Field investigations consisted of intensive pedestrian surface inspection, subsurface shovel testing, photographic documentation, mapping, and mechanical deep testing. A total of 59 shovel tests and six deep tests were excavated. Only one shovel test was positive for cultural materials. This test contained a porcelain insulator at a depth of 10 centimeters (4 inches) below surface. This isolated find was completely delineated with no additional materials found within a 20-meter (65-foot) radius. This isolate was located immediately adjacent to Snake Slough and could have washed into place during a flood event. Also, it was located near the intersection of two buried utilities and could have been deposited during their construction. This isolate is not recommended for further investigation and no state-issued trinomial was requested. No new buried significant cultural sites were encountered as a result of survey. Two historical above-ground resources were identified, which include a circa 1950s vernacular residence and the remains of an oil drilling platform. Neither resource is associated with significant events or persons, and are not likely to provide important information about the history of the oil industry in Fort Bend County, nor do they represent distinctive architectural design characteristics. Therefore, neither resource appears to meet the minimum requirements for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places and no further work is recommended regarding them. The historic-age resources are not recommended as eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places. No negative impacts on archaeological sites or significant above-ground resources are anticipated as a result of project construction. Based on these findings, Gray & Pape, Inc. recommends that no further cultural resources work be required and that the project be cleared to proceed as currently planned

Accumulation and Clearance of Perfluorooctanoic Acid (PFOA) in Current and Former Residents of an Exposed Community

BackgroundPerfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) is a perfluoroalkyl acid found in > 99% of Americans. Its health effects are unknown. Prior estimates of serum half-life range from 2.3 to 3.8 years.ObjectivesWe assessed the impact of years of residence and years since residing in the study area on serum PFOA concentration in a sample of current and former residents who were exposed to PFOA emissions from an industrial facility in six water districts in West Virginia and Ohio.MethodsSerum samples and questionnaires, including residential history, were collected in 2005-2006. We modeled log serum PFOA (nanograms per milliliter) for current residents as a function of years of residence in a water district, adjusted for a variety of factors. We modeled the half-life in former residents who lived in two water districts with high exposure levels using a two-segment log-linear spline.ResultsWe modeled serum PFOA concentration in 17,516 current residents as a function of years of residence (R2 = 0.68). Years of residence was significantly associated with PFOA concentration (1% increase in serum PFOA/year of residence), with significant heterogeneity by water district. Half-life was estimated in two water districts comprising a total of 1,573 individuals. For the participants included in our analyses, we found that years since residing in a water district was significantly associated with serum PFOA, which yielded half-lives of 2.9 and 8.5 years for water districts with higher and lower exposure levels, respectively.ConclusionYears of residence in an exposed water district is positively associated with observed serum PFOA in 2005-2006. Differences in serum clearance rate between low- and high-exposure water districts suggest a possible concentration-dependent or time-dependent clearance process or inadequate adjustment for background exposures

LoCoH: nonparameteric kernel methods for constructing home ranges and utilization distributions.

Parametric kernel methods currently dominate the literature regarding the construction of animal home ranges (HRs) and utilization distributions (UDs). These methods frequently fail to capture the kinds of hard boundaries common to many natural systems. Recently a local convex hull (LoCoH) nonparametric kernel method, which generalizes the minimum convex polygon (MCP) method, was shown to be more appropriate than parametric kernel methods for constructing HRs and UDs, because of its ability to identify hard boundaries (e.g., rivers, cliff edges) and convergence to the true distribution as sample size increases. Here we extend the LoCoH in two ways: "fixed sphere-of-influence," or r-LoCoH (kernels constructed from all points within a fixed radius r of each reference point), and an "adaptive sphere-of-influence," or a-LoCoH (kernels constructed from all points within a radius a such that the distances of all points within the radius to the reference point sum to a value less than or equal to a), and compare them to the original "fixed-number-of-points," or k-LoCoH (all kernels constructed from k-1 nearest neighbors of root points). We also compare these nonparametric LoCoH to parametric kernel methods using manufactured data and data collected from GPS collars on African buffalo in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Our results demonstrate that LoCoH methods are superior to parametric kernel methods in estimating areas used by animals, excluding unused areas (holes) and, generally, in constructing UDs and HRs arising from the movement of animals influenced by hard boundaries and irregular structures (e.g., rocky outcrops). We also demonstrate that a-LoCoH is generally superior to k- and r-LoCoH (with software for all three methods available at http://locoh.cnr.berkeley.edu)

Microdialysis Sampling Coupled to Microchip Electrophoresis with Integrated Amperometric Detection on an All Glass Substrate

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Scott, D. E., Grigsby, R., & Lunte, S. M. (2013). Microdialysis Sampling Coupled to Microchip Electrophoresis with Integrated Amperometric Detection on an All Glass Substrate. Chemphyschem : A European Journal of Chemical Physics and Physical Chemistry, 14(10), 2288–2294. http://doi.org/10.1002/cphc.201300449, which has been published in final form at doi.org/10.1002/cphc.201300449. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.The development of an all-glass separation-based sensor using microdialysis coupled to microchip electrophoresis with amperometric detection is described. The system includes a flow-gated interface to inject discrete sample plugs from the microdialysis perfusate into the microchip electrophoresis system. Electrochemical detection was accomplished with a platinum electrode in an in-channel configuration using a wireless electrically isolated potentiostat. To facilitate bonding around the in-channel electrode, a fabrication process was employed that produced a working and a reference electrode flush with the glass surface. Both normal and reversed polarity separations were performed with this sensor. The system was evaluated in vitro for the continuous monitoring of the production of hydrogen peroxide from the reaction of glucose oxidase with glucose. Microdialysis experiments were performed using a BASi loop probe with an overall lag time of approximately five minutes and a rise time of less than 60 seconds

Sub-lethal Effects of 2,4-D Exposure on Golf Course Amphibians

Amphibians are among the most common vertebrates inhabiting golf courses. They are frequent inhabitants of golf course wetlands, where they are likely to be episodically exposed to small quantities of herbicides in proper golf course maintenance. The goal of this study was to investigate whether amphibian larvae subjected to sublethal concentrations of a common herbicide used in golf course maintenance would likely result in significant life history, locomotor, or behavioral effects (e.g., changes in growth, swimming speed, or feeding ability). For these experiments we selected as models tadpoles of the southern leopard frog (Rana sphenocephala) and the herbicide 2,4- dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D). The study’s findings include: Some life history traits (e.g., survival to metamorphosis) may be affected by chronic exposure at high doses, but other traits (e.g., growth, timing of metamorphosis, and size at metamorphosis) are not affected. Acute exposure is unlikely to have significant impact on life history traits. Acute exposure does not alter locomotor ability. Acute exposure to 2,4-D reduces the activity of tadpoles, and it also reduces feeding activity when predators are present. We conclude that 2,4-D does not represent a particularly strong threat to amphibian larvae inhabiting golf course where the herbicide is applied responsibly

The effect of conversational agent skill on user behavior during deception

Conversational agents (CAs) are an integral component of many personal and business interactions. Many recent advancements in CA technology have attempted to make these interactions more natural and human-like. However, it is currently unclear how human-like traits in a CA impact the way users respond to questions from the CA. In some applications where CAs may be used, detecting deception is important. Design elements that make CA interactions more human-like may induce undesired strategic behaviors from human deceivers to mask their deception. To better understand this interaction, this research investigates the effect of conversational skill—that is, the ability of the CA to mimic human conversation—from CAs on behavioral indicators of deception. Our results show that cues of deception vary depending on CA conversational skill, and that increased conversational skill leads to users engaging in strategic behaviors that are detrimental to deception detection. This finding suggests that for applications in which it is desirable to detect when individuals are lying, the pursuit of more human-like interactions may be counter-productive