On Classification-Calibration of Gamma-Phi Losses

Gamma-Phi losses constitute a family of multiclass classification loss functions that generalize the logistic and other common losses, and have found application in the boosting literature. We establish the first general sufficient condition for the classification-calibration of such losses. In addition, we show that a previously proposed sufficient condition is in fact not sufficient.Comment: 21 page

Development of scenarios for land cover, population density, impervious cover, and conservation in New Hampshire, 2010–2100

Future changes in ecosystem services will depend heavily on changes in land cover and land use, which, in turn, are shaped by human activities. Given the challenges of predicting long-term changes in human behaviors and activities, scenarios provide a framework for simulating the long-term consequences of land-cover change on ecosystem function. As input for process-based models of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem function, we developed scenarios for land cover, population density, and impervious cover for the state of New Hampshire for 2020–2100. Key drivers of change were identified through information gathered from six sources: historical trends, existing plans relating to New Hampshire’s land-cover future, surveys, existing population scenarios, key informant interviews with diverse stakeholders, and input from subject-matter experts. Scenarios were developed in parallel with information gathering, with details added iteratively as new questions emerged. The final scenarios span a continuum from spatially dispersed development with a low value placed on ecosystem services (Backyard Amenities) to concentrated development with a high value placed on ecosystem services (the Community Amenities family). The Community family includes two population scenarios (Large Community and Small Community), to be combined with two scenarios for land cover (Protection of Wildlands and Promotion of Local Food), producing combinations that bring the total number of scenarios to six. Between Backyard Amenities and Community Amenities is a scenario based on linear extrapolations of current trends (Linear Trends). Custom models were used to simulate decadal change in land cover, population density, and impervious cover. We present raster maps and proportion of impervious cover for HUC10 watersheds under each scenario and discuss the trade-offs of our translation and modeling approach within the context of contemporary scenario projects

Benefits of Position–Sensitive Detectors for Source Detection with Known Background

We address the question of whether or not the directional or imaging information offered by a position-sensitive gamma-ray detector improves the detection accuracy when searching for a source of known shape amid a background of known intensity. We formulate the detection problem as a composite hypothesis testing problem and examine the behavior of the generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC). Due to the analytical complexity of the GLRT in this case, we examine its asymptotic properties when the number of detected photons is large. We find that a detector of uniform sensitivity can more accurately detect a source when imaging information is used.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/85968/1/Fessler245.pd

Effect of varying the concentrations of carbohydrate and milk protein in rehydration solutions ingested after exercise in the heat

The present study investigated the relationship between the milk protein content of a rehydration solution and fluid balance after exercise-induced dehydration. On three occasions, eight healthy males were dehydrated to an identical degree of body mass loss (BML, approximately 1.8 %) by intermittent cycling in the heat, rehydrating with 150 % of their BML over 1 h with either a 60 g/l carbohydrate solution (C), a 40 g/l carbohydrate, 20 g/l milk protein solution (CP20) or a 20 g/l carbohydrate, 40 g/l milk protein solution (CP40). Urine samples were collected pre-exercise, post-exercise, post-rehydration and for a further 4 h. Subjects produced less urine after ingesting the CP20 or CP40 drink compared with the C drink (P<0.01), and at the end of the study, more of the CP20 (59 (SD 12) %) and CP40 (64 (SD 6) %) drinks had been retained compared with the C drink (46 (SD 9) %) (P,0.01). At the end of the study, whole-body net fluid balance was more negative for trial C (2470 (SD 154) ml) compared with both trials CP20 (2181 (SD 280) ml) and CP40 (2107 (SD 126) ml) (P<0.01). At 2 and 3 h after drink ingestion, urine osmolality was greater for trials CP20 and CP40 compared with trial C (P<0.05). The present study further demonstrates that after exercise-induced dehydration, a carbohydrate–milk protein solution is better retained than a carbohydrate solution. The results also suggest that high concentrations of milk protein are not more beneficial in terms of fluid retention than low concentrations of milk protein following exercise-induced dehydration

Influenza surveillance among children with pneumonia admitted to a district hospital in coastal Kenya, 2007-2010

Background: Influenza data gaps in sub-Saharan Africa include incidence, case fatality, seasonal patterns, and associations with prevalent disorders. Methods: Nasopharyngeal samples from children aged <12 years who were admitted to Kilifi District Hospital during 2007–2010 with severe or very severe pneumonia and resided in the local demographic surveillance system were screened for influenza A, B, and C viruses by molecular methods. Outpatient children provided comparative data. Results: Of 2002 admissions, influenza A virus infection was diagnosed in 3.5% (71), influenza B virus infection, in 0.9% (19); and influenza C virus infection, in 0.8% (11 of 1404 tested). Four patients with influenza died. Among outpatients, 13 of 331 (3.9%) with acute respiratory infection and 1 of 196 without acute respiratory infection were influenza positive. The annual incidence of severe or very severe pneumonia, of influenza (any type), and of influenza A, was 1321, 60, and 43 cases per 100 000 <5 years of age, respectively. Peak occurrence was in quarters 3–4 each year, and approximately 50% of cases involved infants: temporal association with bacteremia was absent. Hypoxia was more frequent among pneumonia cases involving influenza (odds ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.04–1.96). Influenza A virus subtypes were seasonal H3N2 (57%), seasonal H1N1 (12%), and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (7%). Conclusions: The burden of influenza was small during 2007–2010 in this pediatric hospital in Kenya. Influenza A virus subtype H3N2 predominated, and 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 had little impact

Genetic relatedness of infecting and reinfecting respiratory syncytial virus strains identified in a birth cohort from rural Kenya

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) reinfects individuals repeatedly. The extent to which this is a consequence of RSV antigenic diversity is unclear. Methods: Six-hundred thirty-five children from rural Kenya were closely monitored for RSV infection from birth through 3 consecutive RSV epidemics. RSV infections were identified by immunofluorescence testing of nasal washing samples collected during acute respiratory illnesses, typed into group A and B, and sequenced in the attachment (G) protein. A positive sample separated from a previous positive by ≥14 days was defined as a reinfection a priori. Results: Phylogenetic analysis was undertaken for 325 (80%) of 409 identified infections, including 53 (64%) of 83 reinfections. Heterologous group reinfections were observed in 28 episodes, and homologous group reinfections were observed in 25 episodes; 10 involved homologous genotypes, 5 showed no amino acid changes, and 3 were separated by 21–24 days and were potentially persistent infections. The temporal distribution of genotypes among reinfections did not differ from that of single infections. Conclusions: The vast majority of infection and reinfection pairs differed by group, genotype, or G amino acid sequence (ie, comprised distinct viruses). The extent to which this is a consequence of immune memory of infection history or prevalent diversity remains unclear

BRCA2 gene mutations in families with aggregations of breast and stomach cancers

Stomach cancer ranks second to lung cancer in the global cancer burden. It is estimated that 25% of families meeting the criteria for hereditary diffuse gastric carcinoma (HDCG) will have germline mutations in the E-cadherin gene. Evidence suggests that stomach cancer might also be a malignant manifestation of other inherited predispositions to disease. Recently, it has been reported that the incidence of stomach cancer is significantly increased in BRCA2 gene mutation carriers. We analysed by direct sequencing the BRCA2 gene in 29 breast cancer patients derived from 29 families with an aggregation of at least one female breast cancer diagnosed before the age of 50 years and one male stomach cancer diagnosed before the age of 55 years. In all but one of these families at least one additional relative was also affected by a malignant tumour. We identified three frameshift mutations and three sequence variants – potentially missense mutations, in six unrelated patients representing 20.7% (six out of 29) of the families investigated. Our results confirm that BRCA2 gene mutations are also associated with familial aggregations of not only breast but also of stomach cancer. In comparison to the number of cancers expected in the study population compared to the general population there is an over-representation of several cancers with significant confidence intervals to suggest that the associations are real and not a selection artefact