Semiparametric Estimation and Inference in Multinomial Choice Models

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate semiparametric alternatives to maximum likelihood estimation and inference in the context of unordered multinomial response data when in practice there is often insufficient information to specify the parametric form of the function linking the observables to the unknown probabilities. We specify the function linking the observables to the unknown probabilities using a very general flexible class of functions belonging to the Pearson system of cumulative distribution equations. In this setting we consider the observations as arising from a multinomial distribution characterized by one of the CDFs in the Pearson system. Given this situation, it is possible to utilize the concept of unbiased estimating functions (EFs), combined with the concept of empirical likelihood (EL) to define an (empirical) likelihood function for the parameter vector based on a nonparametric representation of the sample's PDF. This leads to the concept of maximum empirical likelihood (MEL) estimation and inference, which is analogous to parametric maximum likelihood methods in many respects.Demand and Price Analysis,

A STRUCTURAL-EQUATION GME ESTIMATOR

A generalized maximum entropy estimator is developed for the linear simultaneous equations systems model. We provide results on large and small sample properties of the estimator. Empirical results illustrate efficiency advantages of the generalized maximum entropy estimator proposed in this study over traditional estimators (e.g., 2SLS and 3SLS).Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Public Performance Metrics: Driving Physician Motivation and Performance

Introduction: As providers transition from “fee-for-service” to “pay-for-performance” models, focus has shifted to improving performance. This trend extends to the emergency department (ED) where visits continue to increase across the United States. Our objective was to determine whether displaying public performance metrics of physician triage data could drive intangible motivators and improve triage performance in the ED.Methods: This is a single institution, time-series performance study on a physician-in-triage system. Individual physician baseline metrics—number of patients triaged and dispositioned per shift—were obtained and prominently displayed with identifiable labels during each quarterly physician group meeting. Physicians were informed that metrics would be collected and displayed quarterly and that there would be no bonuses, punishments, or required training; physicians were essentially free to do as they wished. It was made explicit that the goal was to increase the number triaged, and while the number dispositioned would also be displayed, it would not be a focus, thereby acting as this study’s control. At the end of one year, we analyzed metrics.Results: The group’s average number of patients triaged per shift were as follows: Q1-29.2; Q2-31.9; Q3-34.4; Q4-36.5 (Q1 vs Q4, p < 0.00001). The average numbers of patients dispositioned per shift were Q1-16.4; Q2-17.8; Q3-16.9; Q4-15.3 (Q1 vs Q4, p = 0.14). The top 25% of Q1 performers increased their average numbers triaged from Q1-36.5 to Q4-40.3 (ie, a statistically insignificant increase of 3.8 patients per shift [p = 0.07]). The bottom 25% of Q1 performers, on the other hand, increased their averages from Q1-22.4 to Q4-34.5 (ie, a statistically significant increase of 12.2 patients per shift [p = 0.0013]).Conclusion: Public performance metrics can drive intangible motivators (eg, purpose, mastery, and peer pressure), which can be an effective, low-cost strategy to improve individual performance, achieve institutional goals, and thrive in the pay-for-performance era

Automated Scenario Generation Environment

Report describes IST\u27s investigation into the feasibility of automating the process of planning and scenario generation for large scale (joint level) simulation exercises and development of an architecture for that purpose

Renal Artery Stenosis and Ipsilateral Renal Cell Carcinoma: Description of an In Situ Partial Nephrectomy and Splenorenal Arterial Bypass

A case of a renal artery stenosis and ipsilateral renal cell carcinoma with long term results is reported. A 65-year-old man with renovascular hypertension, renal insufficiency, and nephrotic range proteinuria presented with an incidental renal cell carcinoma. Concomitant in situ left partial nephrectomy and splenorenal arterial bypass was achieved. The patient is doing well without evidence of malignancy, stable renal function, markedly improved proteinuria and stable blood pressure more than three years later. The techniques of this procedure are detailed and underscore the possibility of successful removal of a renal cell carcinoma with preservation of renal function despite renal artery stenosis

Dc track edge interactions

Includes bibliographical references.We have developed an experimental method for investigating the interaction between two dc track edges by studying the track edge noise. We conclude that two edges do not interact when they are several micrometers apart, but the noise reduces nearly to zero when their separation is less than about half a micrometer. There is a transition region that exists between these two limits. The net track edge noise power from two dc edges is quantized, implying that in our experiment track edges interact around the complete revolution of the disk or not at all.This work was supported in part by NSF Grant No. ECS-880470 and NSF Presidential Young Investigator Award (Indeck) ECS-89-5714

Development and Evaluation of Weak-Post W-Beam Guardrail in Mow Strips

The objective of this study was to adapt and evaluate a weak-post, W-beam guardrail system for use within mow strips and other pavements. The weak-post guardrail system was originally designed as the MGS bridge rail and has also been adapted for use on culverts. It was envisioned that the weak-post design would absorb the impact forces and prevent damage to the mow strips, thereby minimizing maintenance and repair costs. Evaluation of the weak posts in mow strips began with three rounds of dynamic bogie testing. Round 1 of bogie testing showed that 4-in. (102-mm) thick concrete would sustain only minor spalling from impacts to the posts. However, the posts would push through 4-in. and 6-in. (102-mm and 152-mm) thick asphalt mow strips. During Round 2, 24-in. (610-mm) long, 4-in. x 4-in. (102-mm x 102-mm) sockets with 10-in. x 9-in (254-mm x 229-mm) shear plates were utilized to better distribute the impact load to the asphalt pavement and prevent damage. However, Round 3 of bogie testing consisted of dual-post impacts, and the asphalt suffered from shear block fracture between the two 24-in. (610-mm) sockets and the back edge of the mow strip. A dual-post test within a 4-in. (102-mm) thick concrete pad showed only minor spalling. A full-scale MASH 3-11 test was conducted on the weak-post guardrail system installed within an asphalt mow strip. Due to the Round 3 testing results, the asphalt thickness was increased to 6 in. (152 mm), and the socket depth was increased to 30 in. (762 mm). The 2270P pickup was contained and safely redirected, and all MASH safety criteria were satisfied. Unfortunately, the asphalt fractured, and a 2ó-in. (64-mm) wide crack ran from socket to socket throughout the impact region of the system. Therefore, the weak-post guardrail system was crashworthy, but would require repairs in its current configuration. The system could also be installed in a concrete mow strip to prevent pavement damage

Safety analysis of high pressure 3He-filled micro-channels for thermal neutron detection.

This document is a safety analysis of a novel neutron detection technology developed by Sandia National Laboratories. This technology is comprised of devices with tiny channels containing high pressure {sup 3}He. These devices are further integrated into large scale neutron sensors. Modeling and preliminary device testing indicates that the time required to detect the presence of special nuclear materials may be reduced under optimal conditions by several orders of magnitude using this approach. Also, these devices make efficient use of our {sup 3}He supply by making individual devices more efficient and/or extending the our limited {sup 3}He supply. The safety of these high pressure devices has been a primary concern. We address these safety concerns for a flat panel configuration intended for thermal neutron detection. Ballistic impact tests using 3 g projectiles were performed on devices made from FR4, Silicon, and Parmax materials. In addition to impact testing, operational limits were determined by pressurizing the devices either to failure or until they unacceptably leaked. We found that (1) sympathetic or parasitic failure does not occur in pressurized FR4 devices (2) the Si devices exhibited benign brittle failure (sympathetic failure under pressure was not tested) and (3) the Parmax devices failed unacceptably. FR4 devices were filled to pressures up to 4000 + 100 psig, and the impacts were captured using a high speed camera. The brittle Si devices shattered, but were completely contained when wrapped in thin tape, while the ductile FR4 devices deformed only. Even at 4000 psi the energy density of the compressed gas appears to be insignificant compared to the impact caused by the incoming projectile. In conclusion, the current FR4 device design pressurized up to 4000 psi does not show evidence of sympathetic failure, and these devices are intrinsically safe