Do Announcements of WTO Dispute Resolution Cases Matter? Evidence from the Rare Earth Elements Market

Rare earth elements (REEs) have gained increasing attention recently for several key reasons: 1) they are vital to many strategic industries, 2) they are relatively scarce, 3) they frequently exhibit high price fluctuations, 4) China holds a quasi-monopoly on their mining, and 5) China’s REE policy, which was overly restrictive and led to a formal complaint from the U.S., Japan, and the EU at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012. This paper investigates whether the announcement of a WTO dispute resolution case has the power to fundamentally change market dynamics. We find empirical support for this notion because REE prices exhibit a structural break around the announcement of the WTO dispute, and show lower variance ratios for all tested REEs afterward. This indicates a tendency toward efficiency, although REE prices still do not follow a random walk. Similarly, we find that stock price informativeness of companies in the REE industry increases after the announcement, reflecting more firm-specific than marketwide information and less governmental influence. Finally, we show that model uncertainty for option pricing models decreases, which we measure by the lower pricing differences among them

The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts

We compare the suitability of short-memory models (ARMA), long-memory models (ARFIMA), and a GARCH model to describe the volatility of rare earth elements (REEs). We find strong support for the existence of long-memory effects. A simple long-memory ARFIMA (0, d, 0) baseline model shows generally superior accuracy both in- and out-of-sample, and is robust for various subsamples and estimation windows. Volatility forecasts produced by the baseline model also convey material forward-looking information for companies in the REEs industry. Thus, an active trading strategy based on REE volatility forecasts for these companies significantly outperforms a passive buy-and-hold strategy on both an absolute and a risk-adjusted return basis

Serum S-100B adds incremental value for the prediction of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema after acute ischemic stroke

Brain edema; Intracranial hemorrhage; Serum biomarkerEdema cerebral; Hemorragia intracraneal; Biomarcador séricoEdema cerebral; Hemorràgia intracranial; Biomarcador sèricBackground: Early identification of patients developing symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema after acute ischemic stroke is essential for clinical decision-making. Astroglial protein S-100B is a marker of blood-brain barrier disruption, which plays an important role in the formation of intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema. In this study, we assessed the prognostic value of serum S-100B for the development of these complications. Methods: Serum S-100B levels were measured within 24 h from symptom onset in 1749 consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients from the prospective, observational, multicenter BIOSIGNAL cohort study (mean age 72.0 years, 58.3% male). To determine symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or symptomatic brain edema, follow-up neuroimaging was performed in all patients receiving reperfusion therapy or experiencing clinical worsening with an NIHSS increase of ⩾4. Results: Forty six patients (2.6%) developed symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and 90 patients (5.2%) developed symptomatic brain edema. After adjustment for established risk factors, log10S-100B levels remained independently associated with both symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (OR 3.41, 95% CI 1.7–6.9, p = 0.001) and symptomatic brain edema (OR 4.08, 95% CI 2.3–7.1, p < 0.001) in multivariable logistic regression models. Adding S-100B to the clinical prediction model increased the AUC from 0.72 to 0.75 (p = 0.001) for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and from 0.78 to 0.81 (p < 0.0001) for symptomatic brain edema. Conclusions: Serum S-100B levels measured within 24 h after symptom onset are independently associated with the development of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema in acute ischemic stroke patients. Thus, S-100B may be useful for early risk-stratification regarding stroke complications.This study was supported with research grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation (142422), the Swiss Heart Foundation, the Göhner Foundation and the Swiss Seaside Foundation

High posterior cerebral artery flow predicts ischemia recurrence in patients with internal carotid artery occlusion

Recurrent stroke is a dreaded complication of symptomatic internal carotid artery occlusion (ICAO). Transcranial Duplex (TCD)-derived increased flow velocity in the ipsilateral posterior cerebral artery (PCA)-P2 segment indicates activated leptomeningeal collateral recruitment and hemodynamic impairment. Leptomeningeal collaterals are pial vascular connections between the anterior and posterior vascular territories. These secondary collateral routes are activated when primary collaterals via the Circle of Willis are insufficient. Our goal was to test the TCD parameter PCA-P2 flow for prediction of ipsilateral ischemia recurrence. We retrospectively analyzed clinical and ultrasound parameters in patients with ICAO. Together with clinical variables, we tested systolic PCA-P2 flow velocity as predictor of a recurrent ischemic event using logistic regression models. Of 111 patients, 13 showed a recurrent ischemic event within the same vascular territory. Increased flow in the ipsilateral PCA-P2 on transcranial ultrasound (median and interquartile range [IQR]: 60 cm/s [IQR 26] vs. 86 cm/s [IQR 41], p = <0.001), as well as previous transient ischemic attack (TIA) and low NIHSS were associated with ischemia recurrence. Combined into one model, accuracy of these parameters to predict recurrent ischemia was 89.2%. Our data suggest that in patients with symptomatic ICAO, flow increases in the ipsilateral PCA-P2 suggest intensified compensatory efforts when other collaterals are insufficient. Together with the clinical variables, this non-invasive and easily assessable duplex parameter detects ICAO patients at particular risk of recurrent ischemia

High posterior cerebral artery flow predicts ischemia recurrence in patients with internal carotid artery occlusion

Recurrent stroke is a dreaded complication of symptomatic internal carotid artery occlusion (ICAO). Transcranial Duplex (TCD)-derived increased flow velocity in the ipsilateral posterior cerebral artery (PCA)-P2 segment indicates activated leptomeningeal collateral recruitment and hemodynamic impairment. Leptomeningeal collaterals are pial vascular connections between the anterior and posterior vascular territories. These secondary collateral routes are activated when primary collaterals via the Circle of Willis are insufficient. Our goal was to test the TCD parameter PCA-P2 flow for prediction of ipsilateral ischemia recurrence. We retrospectively analyzed clinical and ultrasound parameters in patients with ICAO. Together with clinical variables, we tested systolic PCA-P2 flow velocity as predictor of a recurrent ischemic event using logistic regression models. Of 111 patients, 13 showed a recurrent ischemic event within the same vascular territory. Increased flow in the ipsilateral PCA-P2 on transcranial ultrasound (median and interquartile range [IQR]: 60 cm/s [IQR 26] vs. 86 cm/s [IQR 41], p = &lt;0.001), as well as previous transient ischemic attack (TIA) and low NIHSS were associated with ischemia recurrence. Combined into one model, accuracy of these parameters to predict recurrent ischemia was 89.2%. Our data suggest that in patients with symptomatic ICAO, flow increases in the ipsilateral PCA-P2 suggest intensified compensatory efforts when other collaterals are insufficient. Together with the clinical variables, this non-invasive and easily assessable duplex parameter detects ICAO patients at particular risk of recurrent ischemia

Serum circulating sirtuin 6 as a novel predictor of mortality after acute ischemic stroke

In a murine model of acute ischemic stroke, SIRT6 knockdown resulted in larger cerebral infarct size, worse neurological outcome, and higher mortality, indicating a possible neuro-protective role of SIRT6. In this study, we aimed at evaluating the prognostic value of serum SIRT6 levels in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Serum levels of SIRT6, collected within 72 h from symptom-onset, were measured in 317 consecutively enrolled AIS patients from the COSMOS cohort. The primary endpoint of this analysis was 90-day mortality. The independent prognostic value of SIRT6 was assessed with multivariate logistic and Cox proportional regression models. 35 patients (11%) deceased within 90-day follow-up. After adjustment for established risk factors (age, NIHSS, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and C reactive protein), SIRT6 levels were negatively associated with mortality. The optimal cut-off for survival was 634 pg/mL. Patients with SIRT6 levels below this threshold had a higher risk of death in multivariable Cox regression. In this pilot study, SIRT6 levels were significantly associated with 90-day mortality after AIS; these results build on previous molecular and causal observations made in animal models. Should this association be confirmed, SIRT6 could be a potential prognostic predictor and therapeutic target in AIS

The Role of Electrocardiographic Markers for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke: Data from the BIOSIGNAL Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS P-wave abnormalities in the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) have been associated with a higher risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) as well as atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to assess pre-determined ECG criteria during sinus rhythm in unselected AIS patients and their value for predicting newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (NDAF) after hospital admission. METHODS P-wave alterations were measured on 12-lead ECG on admission in all consecutively enrolled patients without known AF between October 2014 and 2017. The outcome of interest was NDAF, identified by prolonged electrocardiographic monitoring within one year after the index AIS. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was applied to assess the magnitude and independence of the association between pre-selected ECG markers and NDAF. The discriminatory accuracy was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the incremental prognostic value was estimated with the net reclassification index. RESULTS NDAF was detected in 87 (10%) of 856 patients during a follow-up of 365 days. Out of the pre-selected ECG parameters, advanced interatrial block (aIAB) and PR interval in lead II were independently associated with NDAF in univariable regression analysis. Only aIAB remained a significant predictor in multivariable analysis. Adding aIAB to the best-performing multivariable regression model improved the discriminatory accuracy to predict NDAF from an AUC of 0.78 (95%-CI 0.77-0.80) to 0.81 (95%-CI 0.80-0.83, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION aIAB is independently and highly associated with NDAF in patients with AIS, has high inter-rater reliability, and therefore may be helpful to refine diagnostic work-up to search for AF in AIS

Keratins and protein synthesis: the plot thickens

In addition to protecting epithelial cells from mechanical stress, keratins regulate cytoarchitecture, cell growth, proliferation, apoptosis, and organelle transport. In this issue, Vijayaraj et al. (2009. J. Cell Biol. doi:10.1083/jcb.200906094) expand our understanding of how keratin proteins participate in the regulation of protein synthesis through their analysis of mice lacking the entire type II keratin gene cluster

Serum S-100B adds incremental value for the prediction of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema after acute ischemic stroke

Background: Early identification of patients developing symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema after acute ischemic stroke is essential for clinical decision-making. Astroglial protein S-100B is a marker of blood-brain barrier disruption, which plays an important role in the formation of intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema. In this study, we assessed the prognostic value of serum S-100B for the development of these complications. Methods: Serum S-100B levels were measured within 24 h from symptom onset in 1749 consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients from the prospective, observational, multicenter BIOSIGNAL cohort study (mean age 72.0 years, 58.3% male). To determine symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or symptomatic brain edema, follow-up neuroimaging was performed in all patients receiving reperfusion therapy or experiencing clinical worsening with an NIHSS increase of ⩾4. Results: Forty six patients (2.6%) developed symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and 90 patients (5.2%) developed symptomatic brain edema. After adjustment for established risk factors, log$_{10}$S-100B levels remained independently associated with both symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (OR 3.41, 95% CI 1.7–6.9, p = 0.001) and symptomatic brain edema (OR 4.08, 95% CI 2.3–7.1, p < 0.001) in multivariable logistic regression models. Adding S-100B to the clinical prediction model increased the AUC from 0.72 to 0.75 ( p = 0.001) for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and from 0.78 to 0.81 ( p < 0.0001) for symptomatic brain edema. Conclusions: Serum S-100B levels measured within 24 h after symptom onset are independently associated with the development of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema in acute ischemic stroke patients. Thus, S-100B may be useful for early risk-stratification regarding stroke complications

Serum S-100B adds incremental value for the prediction of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema after acute ischemic stroke

Early identification of patients developing symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema after acute ischemic stroke is essential for clinical decision-making. Astroglial protein S-100B is a marker of blood-brain barrier disruption, which plays an important role in the formation of intracranial hemorrhage and brain edema. In this study, we assessed the prognostic value of serum S-100B for the development of these complications. Serum S-100B levels were measured within 24 h from symptom onset in 1749 consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients from the prospective, observational, multicenter BIOSIGNAL cohort study (mean age 72.0 years, 58.3% male). To determine symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage or symptomatic brain edema, follow-up neuroimaging was performed in all patients receiving reperfusion therapy or experiencing clinical worsening with an NIHSS increase of ⩾4. Forty six patients (2.6%) developed symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and 90 patients (5.2%) developed symptomatic brain edema. After adjustment for established risk factors, logS-100B levels remained independently associated with both symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (OR 3.41, 95% CI 1.7-6.9, p = 0.001) and symptomatic brain edema (OR 4.08, 95% CI 2.3-7.1, p < 0.001) in multivariable logistic regression models. Adding S-100B to the clinical prediction model increased the AUC from 0.72 to 0.75 (p = 0.001) for symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and from 0.78 to 0.81 (p < 0.0001) for symptomatic brain edema. Serum S-100B levels measured within 24 h after symptom onset are independently associated with the development of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and symptomatic brain edema in acute ischemic stroke patients. Thus, S-100B may be useful for early risk-stratification regarding stroke complications