Large low-frequency orbiting radio telescope

Feasibility of orbiting paraboloidal antenna for low frequency radio astronom

Axisymmetric and cylindrical isostabiloids

Differential equations for compression loaded axisymmetric cylindrical structure

Reconciling models and measurements of marsh vulnerability to sealevel rise

Tidal marsh survival in the face of sea level rise (SLR) anddeclining sediment supply often depends on the ability ofmarshes to build soil vertically. However, numerical models typically predict survival under rates of SLR that farexceedfield-based measurements of vertical accretion. Here, we combine novel measurements from sevenU.S. Atlantic Coast marshes and data from 70 additional marshes from around the world to illustrate that—over con-tinental scales—70% of variability in marsh accretion rates can be explained by suspended sediment concentratin(SSC) and spring tidal range (TR). Apparent discrepancies between models and measurements can be explained bydiffering responses in high marshes and low marshes,the latter of which accretes faster for a given SSC andTR. Together these results help bridge the gap between models and measurements, and reinforce the paradigm thatsediment supply is the key determinant of wetland vulnerability at continental scales

Why are some species older than others? A large-scale study of vertebrates.

BACKGROUND: Strong variations are observed between and within taxonomic groups in the age of extant species and these differences can clarify factors that render species more vulnerable to extinction. Understanding the factors that influence the resilience of species is thus a key component of evolutionary biology, but it is also of prime importance in a context of climate change and for conservation in general. We explored the effect of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on the timing of the oldest diversification event in over 600 vertebrate species distributed worldwide. We used phylogenetic comparative methods to show that color polymorphism, latitude and reproduction (the latter through its interaction with latitude) affected the timing of the oldest diversification event within a species. RESULTS: Species from higher latitudes tended to be younger, and colour-polymorphic species were older than monomorphic species. Mode of reproduction was important also, in that the age of oviparous species decreased with latitude, whereas no pattern was apparent for viviparous species. Organisms which have already persisted for a long time may be more likely to deal with future modifications of their environment. CONCLUSIONS: Species that are colour polymorphic, viviparous, and/or live at low latitudes have exhibited resilience to past environmental changes, and hence may be better able to deal with current climate change

Heliogyro solar sailer Summary report

Large solar sail vehicle to operate in manner of helicopter roto

Optimization of model parameters and experimental designs with the Optimal Experimental Design Toolbox (v1.0) exemplified by sedimentation in salt marshes

The geosciences are a highly suitable field of application for optimizing model parameters and experimental designs especially because many data are collected. In this paper, the weighted least squares estimator for optimizing model parameters is presented together with its asymptotic properties. A popular approach to optimize experimental designs called local optimal experimental designs is described together with a lesser known approach which takes into account the potential nonlinearity of the model parameters. These two approaches have been combined with two methods to solve their underlying discrete optimization problem. All presented methods were implemented in an opensource MATLAB toolbox called the Optimal Experimental Design Toolbox whose structure and application is described. In numerical experiments, the model parameters and experimental design were optimized using this toolbox. Two existing models for sediment concentration in seawater and sediment accretion on salt marshes of different complexity served as an application example. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches were compared based on these models. Thanks to optimized experimental designs, the parameters of these models could be determined very accurately with significantly fewer measurements compared to unoptimized experimental designs. The chosen optimization approach played a minor role for the accuracy; therefore, the approach with the least computational effort is recommended

The effect of long-term and decadal climate and hydrology variations on estuarine marsh dynamics: An identifying case study from the Río de la Plata

The vertical growth of coastal wetlands is known to primarily be controlled by local tidal range and sediment availability as well as the occurrence of storm events. In estuaries, sediment availability additionally depends on riverine sediment input, the effect of which may be more pronounced in some parts of the estuary, thereby introducing a distinct spatial pattern that depends on the estuary's shape as well as the riverine sediment input and the hydro-meteorological regime. In the present study, we investigate how estuarine marshes along the whole Río de la Plata (RdlP) are affected by decadal and long-term variations in river discharge and storm activity. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in this context, appears to introduce a pronounced decadal variability on sediment loads brought into the RdlP. Based on 15 sediment cores, recovered along the RdlP and adjacent Atlantic coast, vertical marsh growth rates were studied using radionuclide dating (210Pb and 137Cs) and grain size distributions. By comparing these sedimentological records with historic river discharge and storm surge data, we spatially interpret the relative importance of temporal variations in river discharge and storm activity on estuarine marsh growth. By delivering the first estimates for vertical growth rates of the RdlP marshes, we conclude that with average vertical marsh growth rates between 0.4 and 2.6 cm year− 1, the RdlP marshes are highly resilient against drowning under present and future sea-level rise (SLR) conditions. Furthermore, our results confirm a large spatial variability of the drivers for vertical marsh growth; extreme storm surges appear to play a role in the development of the outer RdlP marshes whereas the temporal variations in river discharge seem to be hierarchically more important for the marshes in the inner estuary.This project was financially supported by a grant of the Cluster of Excellence 80 ‘The Future Ocean’ to Mark Schuerch (grant CP1211). ‘The Future Ocean’ is funded within the framework of the Excellence Initiative by the ‘Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft’ (DFG) on behalf of the German federal and state governments (EXC 80). Felipe García-Rodríguez acknowledges ‘Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación’ (ANII) and PEDECIBA. Jan Scholten acknowledges the support provided by the FP7 EU Marie Curie Career Integration Grant (grant PCIG09-GA-2011-293499).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.06.029

Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model

The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756 × 10^3 km^2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85 km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46–59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110 cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29 cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts.The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Union under contract number EVK2-2000-22024. They thank all their partners in the DINAS-COAST project Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Climate Change and Sea-level rise. We are grateful to staff at UNEP-WCMC for generous access to evolving databases on global coastal wetland extent: Jon Hutton, Hannah Thomas, Jan-Willem van Bochove, Simon Blyth and Chris McOwen. Current wetland databases held at WCMC build upon the pioneering efforts of Mark Spalding and Carmen Lacambra.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.01

Reconciling models and measurements of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

Tidal marsh survival in the face of sea level rise (SLR) and declining sediment supply often depends on the ability of marshes to build soil vertically. However, numerical models typically predict survival under rates of SLR that far exceed field-based measurements of vertical accretion. Here, we combine novel measurements from seven U.S. Atlantic Coast marshes and data from 70 additional marshes from around the world to illustrate that—over continental scales—70% of variability in marsh accretion rates can be explained by suspended sediment concentratin (SSC) and spring tidal range (TR). Apparent discrepancies between models and measurements can be explained by differing responses in high marshes and low marshes, the latter of which accretes faster for a given SSC and TR. Together these results help bridge the gap between models and measurements, and reinforce the paradigm that sediment supply is the key determinant of wetland vulnerability at continental scales