Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived from the framework with 482 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987-2000. We find that ratings are linked to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Consistent with the framework, rating effects are sometimes greater for right-wing compared to left-wing incumbents, perhaps, because partisan PBC considerations with right-wing (left-wing) incumbents reinforce (counteract) opportunistic PBC considerations.economics, elections, developing countries, ratings

DEMOCRACY’S SPREAD: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and test a framework for explaining election-period changes in credit spreads for developing country sovereign bonds. Pre-election bond spread trends are significantly linked both to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Bond spreads for right-wing (leftwing) incumbents increase (decrease) as the likelihood of left-wing (right-wing) challenger victory increases. For right-wing incumbent partisan and opportunistic PBC effects bondholder risk perceptions are mutually reinforcing. For left-wing incumbents partisan PBC effects dominate bondholder risk perceptions compared to opportunistic PBC effects.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39961/3/wp575.pd

Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries

We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop a framework for explaining election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). We test six hypotheses derived from the framework with 482 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987-2000. We find that ratings are linked to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Consistent with the framework, rating effects are sometimes greater for right-wing compared to left-wing incumbents, perhaps, because partisan PBC considerations with right-wing (left-wing) incumbents reinforce (counteract) opportunistic PBC considerations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39931/3/wp546.pd

SRPT Scheduling for Web Servers

This note briey summarizes some results from two papers: [4] and [23]. These papers pose the following question: Is it possible to reduce the expected response time of every request at a web server, simply by changing the order in which we schedule the requests? In [4] we approach this question analytically via an M/G/1 queue. In [23] we approach the same question via implementation involving an Apache web server running on Linux

Evaporation of Lennard-Jones Fluids

Evaporation and condensation at a liquid/vapor interface are ubiquitous interphase mass and energy transfer phenomena that are still not well understood. We have carried out large scale molecular dynamics simulations of Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluids composed of monomers, dimers, or trimers to investigate these processes with molecular detail. For LJ monomers in contact with a vacuum, the evaporation rate is found to be very high with significant evaporative cooling and an accompanying density gradient in the liquid domain near the liquid/vapor interface. Increasing the chain length to just dimers significantly reduces the evaporation rate. We confirm that mechanical equilibrium plays a key role in determining the evaporation rate and the density and temperature profiles across the liquid/vapor interface. The velocity distributions of evaporated molecules and the evaporation and condensation coefficients are measured and compared to the predictions of an existing model based on kinetic theory of gases. Our results indicate that for both monatomic and polyatomic molecules, the evaporation and condensation coefficients are equal when systems are not far from equilibrium and smaller than one, and decrease with increasing temperature. For the same reduced temperature $T/T_c$, where $T_c$ is the critical temperature, these two coefficients are higher for LJ dimers and trimers than for monomers, in contrast to the traditional viewpoint that they are close to unity for monatomic molecules and decrease for polyatomic molecules. Furthermore, data for the two coefficients collapse onto a master curve when plotted against a translational length ratio between the liquid and vapor phase.Comment: revised version, 15 pages, 15 figures, to appear in J. Chem. Phy

Influence of the carbon and the titanium sublayers on the eletrophysical preporties of the thin film system ALN/SI

The carbon (C) and titanium (Ti) ions were implanted onto the surface of the silicon (Si), and the thin films of aluminum nitride (AlN) were prepared on Si(100) substrate by magnetron sputtering after the implantations. The compositions of these thin film systems were studied by optical microscopy and Raman spectroscopy, and the surface conductivity of those samples were measured. It was indicated that the implanted C and Ti ions did have made a difference to the electro physical properties of the systems AlN/Si