Strain buildup and release, earthquake prediction and selection of VLB sites for the margins of the North Pacific

Projects studying different aspects of crustal deformation are discussed. The rifting process at the plate boundary in northern Iceland was investigated using combined seismic, tilt, and displacement measurements. Stresses acting on the Alpine fault, New Zealand, were modeled based on observations of regional variation in metamorphism and argon loss. The relationship between the stress pattern shown by intraplate seismicity and possible stresses on plates arising from litohspheric motion over the asthenosphere was investigated. Small earthquakes in Southern California were studied to determine if subregions of uniform strain release exist and if interaction occurs between faults

Metamorphism, argon depletion, heat flow and stress on the Alpine fault

The Alpine fault of New Zealand is a major continental transform fault which was uplifted on its southeast side 4 to 11 km within the last 5 m.y. This uplift has exposed the Haast schists, which were metamorphosed from the adjacent Torlesse graywackes. The Haast schists increase in metamorphic grade from prehnite-pumpellyite facies 9-12 km from the fault through the chlorite and biotite zones of the greenschist facies to the garnet-oligoclase zone amphibolite facies within 4 km of the fault. These metamorphic zone boundaries are subparallel to the fault for 350 km along the strike. The K-Ar and Rb-Sr ages of the schists increase with distance from the fault: from 4 m.y. within 3 km of the fault to approximately 110 m.y. 20 km from the fault. Field relations show that the source of heat that produced the argon depletion aureole was the fault itself

Das Auszugsverhalten junger Menschen

In dieser Arbeit wird untersucht, welche individuellen Faktoren einen Einfluß auf das Auszugsverhalten junger Menschen in der Bundesrepublik (West) haben. Die Untersuchung wird auf der Basis von Daten des Sozioökonomischen Panels f�r die Geburtenjahrgänge von 1968-1982 durchgeführt. Es wird ein semiparametrisches Hazardratenmodell geschätzt, in dem die Zielzustände "Single-Haushalt" und "Wohnung mit Partner" unterschieden werden. Variablen wie das eigene Einkommen und das Elterneinkommen werden nonparametrisch im Modell berücksichtigt. Es zeigt sich, daß Arbeitslosigkeit keinen negativen Effekt auf die Auszugswahrscheinlichkeit hat. Die Institution Familie fungiert also für junge Menschen nur in geringem Maße als Versicherung gegen Arbeitslosigkeit. Ein höheres eigenes Einkommen führt hingegen ebenso wie ein hüheres Elterneinkommen zu einer höheren Auszugswahrscheinlichkeit

Rate- and State-Dependent Friction Law and Statistical Properties of Earthquakes

In order to clarify how the statistical properties of earthquakes depend on the constitutive law characterizing the stick-slip dynamics, we make an extensive numerical simulation of the one-dimensional spring-block model with the rate- and state-dependent friction law. Both the magnitude distribution and the recurrence-time distribution are studied with varying the constitutive parameters characterizing the model. While a continuous spectrum of seismic events from smaller to larger magnitudes is obtained, earthquakes described by this model turn out to possess pronounced ``characteristic'' features.Comment: Minor revisions are made in the text and in the figures. Accepted for publication in Europhys. Letter

Observations of Mira stars with the IOTA/FLUOR interferometer and comparison with Mira star models

We present K'-band observations of five Mira stars with the IOTA interferometer. The interferograms were obtained with the FLUOR fiber optics beam combiner, which provides high-accuracy visibility measurements in spite of time-variable atmospheric conditions. For the M-type Miras X Oph, R Aql, RU Her, R Ser, and the C-type Mira V CrB we derived the uniform-disk diameters 11.7mas, 10.9mas, 8.4mas, 8.1mas, and 7.9mas (+/- 0.3mas), respectively. Simultaneous photometric observations yielded the bolometric fluxes. The derived angular Rosseland radii and the bolometric fluxes allowed the determination of effective temperatures. For instance, the effective temperature of R Aql was determined to be 2970 +/- 110 K. A linear Rosseland radius for R Aql of (250 +100/-60) Rsun was derived from the angular Rosseland radius of 5.5mas +/- 0.2mas and the HIPPARCOS parallax of 4.73mas +/- 1.19mas. The observations were compared with theoretical Mira star models of Bessel et al. (1996) and Hofmann et al. (1998). The effective temperatures of the M-type Miras and the linear radius of R Aql indicate fundamental mode pulsation.Comment: 12 pages, 4 postscript figure

Integration of geological and seismological data for the analysis of seismic hazard: A case study of Japan

Seismic hazard analyses are associated with large uncertainties when historical data are insufficient to define secular rates of seismicity. Such uncertainties may be decreased with geological data in areas where seismicity is shallow and produced by Quaternary faulting. To illustrate, we examine intraplate Japan. Large intraplate earthquakes in Japan characteristically produce surface ruptures along mappable Quaternary faults and show a systematic relation between seismic moment, M_0 and rupture length I (log M_0 = 23.5 + 1.94 × log I). It is observed that, within the bounds placed by geologically assessed slip rates, the mean regional moment release rate M_0 resulting from slip on mapped Quaternary faults is in accord with estimates of M_0 determined with the 400-yr record of seismicity. Recent work also shows that when the repeat time T of earthquakes on Quaternary faults in southwest Japan is assumed to equal M_0/M_0^g (where M_0 is estimated for rupture extended over the entire fault length and M_0^g is the geologically assessed moment release rate of each fault), the moment frequency distribution of earthquakes predicted from the geologic record is virtually identical to that seen with the 400-yr record of seismicity. These observations indicate that the geologic record of Quaternary fault offsets contains sufficient information to predict both the spatial and size distribution of intraplate earthquakes in Japan. A contour map of the average recurrence time of ground shaking of JMA intensity ≧V is thus computed using an empirical relation between seismic moment and the areal distribution of seismic intensity and assuming that the repeat time T of earthquakes on each Quaternary fault equals M_0/M_0^g. The map demonstrates how Quaternary fault data may be used to assess long-term seismic hazard in areas of active faulting where historical records of seismicity are relatively short or absent. Another shortcoming of conventional seismic hazard analysis is that hazard is not considered a function of the time since each fault in a region last ruptured. A simple procedure is used to demonstrate how the time-dependent nature of the earthquake cycle affects the evaluation of seismic hazard. The distribution of seismic shaking characteristic of large interplate earthquakes offshore of Japan is estimated from published isoseismal maps. The observed average repeat times of ruptures along specific segments of the plate boundaries then provide the basis to make probabilistic estimates of the next expected time of seismic shaking due to plate boundary earthquakes. When data are too few to document the average repeat times of rupture, the estimates of probability are calculated with data relating to the relative coseismic slip during past earthquakes and the rate of interseismic strain accumulation, interpreted within the framework of the time predictable model of earthquake occurrence. Results are displayed as maps of instantaneous seismic hazard: the probability that seismic shaking will occur conditional to knowledge of where in time each fault in a region presently resides with respect to the earthquake cycle

Self-Similarity of Friction Laws

The change of the friction law from a mesoscopic level to a macroscopic level is studied in the spring-block models introduced by Burridge-Knopoff. We find that the Coulomb law is always scale invariant. Other proposed scaling laws are only invariant under certain conditions.}Comment: Plain TEX. Figures not include

The Solar Neighborhood XV: Discovery of New High Proper Motion Stars with mu >= 0.4"/yr between Declinations -47 degrees and 00 degrees

We report the discovery of 152 new high proper motion systems (mu >= 0.4"/yr) in the southern sky (Declination = -47 degrees to 00 degrees) brighter than UKST plate R_{59F} =16.5 via our SuperCOSMOS-RECONS (SCR) search. This paper complements Paper XII in The Solar Neighborhood series, which covered the region from Declination = -90 degrees to -47 degrees and discussed all 147 new systems from the southernmost phase of the search. Among the total of 299 systems from both papers, there are 148 (71 in Paper XII, 77 in this paper) new systems moving faster than 0.5"/yr that are additions to the classic ``LHS'' (Luyten Half Second) sample. These constitute an 8% increase in the sample of all stellar systems with mu >= 0.5"/yr in the southern sky. As in Paper XII, distance estimates are provided for the systems reported here based upon a combination of photographic plate magnitudes and 2MASS photometry, assuming all stars are on the main sequence. Two SCR systems from the portion of the sky included in this paper are anticipated to be within 10 pc, and an additional 23 are within 25 pc. In total, the results presented in Paper XII and here for this SCR sweep of the entire southern sky include five new systems within 10 pc and 38 more between 10 and 25 pc. The largest number of nearby systems have been found in the slowest proper motion bin, 0.6"/yr > mu >= 0.4"/yr, indicating that there may be a large population of low proper motion systems very near the Sun.Comment: 36 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomical Journa

The Keck Aperture Masking Experiment: spectro-interferometry of 3 Mira Variables from 1.1 to 3.8 microns

We present results from a spectro-interferometric study of the Miras o Cet, R Leo and W Hya obtained with the Keck Aperture Masking Experiment from 1998 Sep to 2002 Jul. The spectrally dispersed visibility data permit fitting with circularly symmetric brightness profiles such as a simple uniform disk. The stellar angular diameter obtained over up to ~ 450 spectral channels spaning the region 1.1-3.8 microns is presented. Use of a simple uniform disk brightness model facilitates comparison between epochs and with existing data and theoretical models. Strong size variations with wavelength were recorded for all stars, probing zones of H2O, CO, OH, and dust formation. Comparison with contemporaneous spectra extracted from our data show a strong anti-correlation between the observed angular diameter and flux. These variations consolidate the notion of a complex stellar atmosphere consisting of molecular shells with time-dependent densities and temperatures. Our findings are compared with existing data and pulsation models. The models were found to reproduce the functional form of the wavelength vs. angular diameter curve well, although some departures are noted in the 2.8-3.5 micron range.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures Accepted to Ap