Triggers and maintenance of multiple shifts in the state of a natural community

Ecological communities can undergo sudden and dramatic shifts between alternative persistent community states. Both ecological prediction and natural resource management rely on understanding the mechanisms that trigger such shifts and maintain each state. Differentiating between potential mechanisms is difficult, however, because shifts are often recognized only in hindsight and many occur on such large spatial scales that manipulative experiments to test their causes are difficult or impossible. Here we use an approach that focuses first on identifying changes in environmental factors that could have triggered a given state change, and second on examining whether these changes were sustained (and thus potentially maintained the new state) or transitory (explaining the shift but not its persistence). We use this approach to evaluate a community shift in which a benthic marine species of filter feeding sea cucumber (Pachythyone rubra) suddenly came to dominate subtidal rocky reefs that had previously supported high abundances of macroalgae, persisted for more than a decade, then abruptly declined. We found that a sustained period without large wave events coincided with the shift to sea cucumber dominance, but that the sea cucumbers persisted even after the end of this low wave period, indicating that different mechanisms maintained the new community. Additionally, the period of sea cucumber dominance occurred when their predators were rare, and increases in the abundance of these predators coincided with the end of sea cucumber dominance. These results underscore the complex nature of regime shifts and illustrate that focusing separately on the causes and maintenance of state change can be a productive first step for analyzing these shifts in a range of systems

Sublethal toxicant effects with dynamic energy budget theory: application to mussel outplants

We investigate the effectiveness of a sublethal toxic effect model embedded in Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory for the analysis of field data. We analyze the performance of two species of mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis and M. californianus, near a diffuser discharging produced water in the Southern California Bight, California. Produced water is a byproduct of oil production consisting of fossil water together with compounds added during the extraction process, and generally contains highly elevated levels of pollutants relative to sea water. Produced water negatively affects the production of somatic and reproductive biomass in both mussel species; we show that these negative effects can be quantified with our DEB-based modeling framework through the estimation of toxic effect scaling parameters. Our analyses reveal that the toxic impact of produced water on growth and reproduction of M. californianus is substantially higher than for M. galloprovincialis. Projections of the expected lifetime production of gonad biomass indicate that the environmental impact of produced water can be as large as 100%, whereas short-term assessment without the use of DEB theory projects a maximum effect of only 30%

Coral Reef Monitoring by Scuba Divers Using Underwater Photogrammetry and Geodetic Surveying

Underwater photogrammetry is increasingly being used by marine ecologists because of its ability to produce accurate, spatially detailed, non-destructive measurements of benthic communities, coupled with affordability and ease of use. However, independent quality control, rigorous imaging system set-up, optimal geometry design and a strict modeling of the imaging process are essential to achieving a high degree of measurable accuracy and resolution. If a proper photogrammetric approach that enables the formal description of the propagation of measurement error and modeling uncertainties is not undertaken, statements regarding the statistical significance of the results are limited. In this paper, we tackle these critical topics, based on the experience gained in the Moorea Island Digital Ecosystem Avatar (IDEA) project, where we have developed a rigorous underwater photogrammetric pipeline for coral reef monitoring and change detection. Here, we discuss the need for a permanent, underwater geodetic network, which serves to define a temporally stable reference datum and a check for the time series of photogrammetrically derived three-dimensional (3D) models of the reef structure. We present a methodology to evaluate the suitability of several underwater camera systems for photogrammetric and multi-temporal monitoring purposes and stress the importance of camera network geometry to minimize the deformations of photogrammetrically derived 3D reef models. Finally, we incorporate the measurement and modeling uncertainties of the full photogrammetric process into a simple and flexible framework for detecting statistically significant changes among a time series of models

The solar magnetic field since 1700: II. Physical reconstruction of total, polar and open flux

We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the open heliospheric flux from the year 1700 onward. The statistical properties of the semi-synthetic sunspot group records reflect those of the observed the Royal Greenwich Observatory photoheliographic results. These include correlations between the sunspot numbers and sunspot group latitudes, longitudes, areas and tilt angles. The reconstruction results for the total surface flux, the polar field, and the heliospheric open flux (determined by a current sheet source surface extrapolation) agree well with the available observational or empirically derived data and reconstructions. We confirm a significant positive correlation between the polar field during activity minimum periods and the strength of the subsequent sunspot cycle, which has implications for flux transport dynamo models for the solar cycle. Just prior to the Dalton minimum, at the end of the 18th century, a long cycle was followed by a weak cycle. We find that introducing a possibly `lost' cycle between 1793 and 1800 leads to a shift of the minimum of the open flux by 15 years which is inconsistent with the cosmogenic isotope record.Comment: A&A, accepte

Analysis of Abrupt Transitions in Ecological Systems

The occurrence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states are of great concern and the likelihood of such transitions is increasing for many ecological systems. General understanding of abrupt transitions has been advanced by theory, but hindered by the lack of a common, accessible, and data-driven approach to characterizing them. We apply such an approach to 30–60 years of data on environmental drivers, biological responses, and associated evidence from pelagic ocean, coastal benthic, polar marine, and semi-arid grassland ecosystems. Our analyses revealed one case in which the response (krill abundance) linearly tracked abrupt changes in the driver (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), but abrupt transitions detected in the three other cases (sea cucumber abundance, penguin abundance, and black grama grass production) exhibited hysteretic relationships with drivers (wave intensity, sea-ice duration, and amounts of monsoonal rainfall, respectively) through a variety of response mechanisms. The use of a common approach across these case studies illustrates that: the utility of leading indicators is often limited and can depend on the abruptness of a transition relative to the lifespan of responsive organisms and observation intervals; information on spatiotemporal context is useful for comparing transitions; and ancillary information from associated experiments and observations aids interpretation of response-driver relationships. The understanding of abrupt transitions offered by this approach provides information that can be used to manage state changes and underscores the utility of long-term observations in multiple sentinel sites across a variety of ecosystems.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful

Academic freedom in Europe: time for a Magna Charta?

This paper is a preliminary attempt to establish a working definition of academic freedom for the European Union states. The paper details why such a definition is required for the European Union and then examines some of the difficulties of defining academic freedom. By drawing upon experience of the legal difficulties beset by the concept in the USA and building on previous analyses of constitutional and legislative protection for academic freedom, and of legal regulations concerning institutional governance and academic tenure, a working definition of academic freedom is then derived. The resultant definition which, it is suggested, could form the basis for a European Magna Charta Libertatis Academicae, goes beyond traditional discussions of academic freedom by specifying not only the rights inherent in the concept but also its accompanying duties, necessary limitations and safeguards. The paper concludes with proposals for how the definition might be tested and carried forward

Indirect effects of species interactions on habitat provisioning

Species that shelter in a biogenic habitat can influence their refugia and, in turn, play an essential role in shaping local patterns of biodiversity. Here we explore a positive feedback loop between the provisioning rate of habitat-forming branching corals and their associated fishes and show how interactions between two groups of fish—the planktivorous damselfish and predatory hawkfish—altered the feedback. A field experiment confirmed that skeletal growth of branching coral (genus Pocillopora) increased substantially with increasing numbers (biomass) of resident fishes, likely because they greatly increased the interstitial concentrations of nutrients. Because there is a positive relationship between colony size and number (biomass) of associated fishes (primarily damselfishes in the Family Pomacentridae), a structure–function feedback loop exists in which increasing numbers of damselfish enhance coral growth and larger corals host greater abundances (and species richness) of fish. However, interactions between damselfishes and arc-eye hawkfish, Paracirrhites arcatus, a largely solitary resident, can disrupt this positive feedback loop. Field surveys revealed a marked pattern of fish occupancy related to coral size: Pocillopora colonies of sufficient size to host fish (>40 cm circumference) had either groups of damselfish or an arc-eye hawkfish; only larger colonies (>75 cm) were occupied by both the damselfish and hawkfish. Subsequent short- and long-term experiments revealed that on intermediate-sized Pocillopora colonies, arc-eye hawkfish prevented the establishment of damselfish by suppressing their recruitment. The demographic consequences to the host coral were substantial; in a 1-year-long experiment, intermediate-size Pocillopora occupied by hawkfish grew at half the rate of corals that hosted groups of damselfish. These findings indicate that: (1) species which occupy a biogenic habitat can enhance the provisioning rate of their habitat; (2) such positive feedbacks between community structure and ecosystem function can be disrupted by a strong interactor; (3) even substantial consequences on ecosystem processes that arise can be difficult to discern