Integrated framework for identifying transformative adaptation in agri-food systems

Climate change adaptation measures and practices may induce fundamental changes i.e. transformations in socio-ecological systems. Adaptation that intentionally aims for transformation is often intended to increase benefits and synergies with other broader societal development goals such as sustainability. Adaptation measures also have possible unintended negative effects that, in the case of system transformations, may be difficult to reverse. This study seeks to identify characteristic features of the adaptation processes that may result in agrifood system transformations. We introduce an integrated framework to identify these features and 'adaptation activity spaces', and apply this framework to the Nordic context, analysing stakeholder interviews that integrated serious gaming. The results show how transformations may result from adaptation measures targeted towards climate risks with an objective of changing either current practices or surrounding supportive structures. This study addresses reasons why transformative adaptation is not occurring in Nordic agri-food systems and presents novel information that may contribute to policymaking and further research needs on transformations in relation to adaptation decision-making.Peer reviewe

Environmental Imprint of Human Food Consumption : Linköping, Sweden 1870 - 2000

Human food consumption has changed from the late 19th century to the turn of the millennium, and so has the need for resources to sustain this consumption. For the city of Linköping, situated in southeastern Sweden, the environmental imprint of an average inhabitant’s food consumption is studied from the year 1870 to the year 2000. The average consumer is the driving factor in this study, since changes in food consumption have a direct influence on the environmental imprint. This thesis analyses the environmental imprint of human food consumption from a historical perspective, by applying two different methods. An analysis of the average Swedish food consumption creates the basis for a material flow analysis of nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as a study of the spatial imprint. Emissions of nitrogen and phosphorus into the hydrosphere have decreased over this period for the system of food consumption and production for an average consumer, while the input via chemical fertilizer has increased significantly. The efficiency of this system could be increased if for instance more phosphorus in human excreta would be reused within the system instead of large deposition and losses into the hydrosphere. The spatial imprint of human food consumption shows, given the changing local preconditions, that less space would be needed for regional production of the consumed food. However, the share of today’s import and thus globally produced food doubles this spatial imprint. The results of this study show not only a strong influence of the consumption of meat and other animal products on the environmental imprint, but also great potential in the regional production of food. In the context of an increasing urban population, and thus additional billions of people who will live at an increasing distance from the agricultural production land, concern for the direct effects of our human food consumption can be of decisive importance for future sustainable food supply

Opportunities and Challenges for Meeting the UN 2030 Agenda in the Light of Global Change-A Case Study of Swedish Perspectives

This study explores how geopolitical aspects can affect actors sense of agency to achieve the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its ambition to transform the world sustainably by studying the linkages between global change and the 2030 Agenda as described by Swedish change agents. Sweden has a self-declared ambition for leadership in the 2030 Agenda. The worlds high-income countries, including Sweden, have been given a specific responsibility to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. The results of this focus group study show that the geopolitical landscape encompasses a multitude of actors and roles whose relationships are filled with tension, creating dichotomies between them. The analysis indicates that Sweden is assessed to be dependent on functioning ecosystems, both locally and globally, as well as causing global environmental change. Two narratives have emerged: (i) the narrative of the 2030 Agenda, referring to deliberate societal transformations that can be controlled and steered, and that have a direction; and (ii) the narrative of geopolitics, indicating perceptions of emergent transformations that appear uncontrollable, drifting aimlessly towards an unknown future. These narratives might influence the understanding of societal transformations, and need to be considered in the facilitation of platforms for deliberative transformations or responses to emerging transformations.Funding Agencies|MISTRA-The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research</p

Co-creation research for transformative times : Facilitating foresight capacity in view of global sustainability challenges

This paper explores the potentials and limitations of transdisciplinary research on sustainability issues characterized by extensive uncertainty and complexity. Transdisciplinary approaches that support the co-creation of knowledge in collaboration between science and society are advocated in research that aims to explore pathways for societal transformations towards sustainability. However, there is limited research on how co-creation research plays out in practice and what are its implications, in particular with regards to how data collection and analysis can be developed to increase the quality and reliability of the research, and to the roles that researchers themselves play in shaping the research. This paper makes two contributions: First, it offers insight into the design and implementation of co-creation endeavors based on scholarly literature as well as experiences from a research program that seeks to support foresight capacity for sustainable development under geopolitical uncertainties. Second, the paper elaborates methodological support for co-creation research by highlighting the potential of co-dissemination for transdisciplinarity and arguing for a systematic approach to reflection and self-reflexivity. Specifically, the paper reflects on experiences from the ongoing Mistra Geopolitics research program, which explores the intersections between geopolitics and sustainable development, and where co-creation has been at the core since the start of the program. We explore three stages in transdisciplinary research: (i) co-design of the research agenda, (ii) co-production of knowledge, and (iii) co-dissemination. Specifically, we examine the role of non-academic partners, the role of knowledge brokers and facilitation, and the need for flexibility, adaptability and reflexivity throughout the process.Funding: Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research - MistraSwedish Foundation for Strategic Research [2016/11]</p

Application of GIS for Cyclone Vulnerability Analysis of Bangladesh

Cyclones are one of the most common and foremost natural hazards in the world that causes extensive causalities. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to cyclone hazard for its geographical location and socio-economic conditions. This study has aimed to analyze the historical cyclonic hazards and creating vulnerability maps and risk maps for Bangladesh. The apposite variables were selected by reviewing pertinent literatures and necessary data were retrieved for 1900 to 2015. GIS tool has been used for visualization of weighed scores for hazard, vulnerability and risk based on historical cyclones’ intensities, magnitudes, causalities and existing coping capacities. Moreover, hotspot analysis that implies Getis-Ord Gi* spatial statistics was also used in this study to identify the patterns of spatial significance and relationship of areas among their neighbors. This analysis produced Z scores from weighed variables those were proportional to the degree of vulnerability and risk. The low negative to high positive Z scores are correlative of low to high cyclone vulnerability and risk. Consequently, the weighed scores have elicited the coastal areas are in front line in terms of vulnerability and risk to cyclone. Besides, Gi* revealed that some areas are significantly risk prone for being spatially influenced by their neighbors

Designing urban green spaces for climate adaptation : A critical review of research outputs

Urban green spaces provide important contributions to enhance climate adaptation, and therefore research in this area has increased exponentially in the last decades. While several studies showed that the morphology and type of living and built elements of urban green spaces greatly affect their performance, a persistent gap between theory and practice continues to pervade the design of green spaces. This study conducts a semi-systematic review of research published in the last decade to investigate to what extent recent research has produced evidence-based outputs relevant to practitioners concerning the design of outdoor urban green spaces in the context of climate adaptation. An innovative design-oriented approach is subsequently applied to critically review evidence-based research outputs considering a comprehensive spectrum of climate impacts and adaptation measures. Our specific objectives are to: i) identify evidence-based research outputs of relevance to practitioners according to type of climatic impact; ii) assess the level of relevance and geographical transferability of such outputs to support the design of urban green spaces; and iii) identify key challenges that might hinder the implementation of evidence-based guidelines. Our results support a call to align research to confront the wicked gap between scientific research and implementation in design practice.Funding Agencies|FORMAS (Sweden)Swedish Research Council Formas [2017-01719]; FCT (Portugal)Portuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyEuropean Commission [ERA4CS/0001/2016]; RCN (Norway); European UnionEuropean Commission [690462]; NWO (The Netherlands)Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)Netherlands Government; FCT-Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia I.P.Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [ERA4CS/0001/2016]</p

Visualization for Citizen Participation: User Perceptions on a Mainstreamed Online Participatory Tool and Its Usefulness for Climate Change Planning

Citizen participation is obligated in municipal planning but is often criticized because of its inadequate implementation. To increase the usefulness of citizen participation and the involvement of underrepresented groups, online participatory tools (OPTs) have attracted attention, in particular, on topics related to climate change. Although many OPTs have been developed and are becoming more widely used, assessments of their usefulness in real-world planning remain scarce. This study aimed to disentangle prospects and pitfalls of this still novel way of practicing citizen dialogue. Specifically, we apply criteria derived from related literatures to assess a mainstreamed OPT in Norrkoping, Sweden. The CityPlanner (TM) tool was discussed with citizens and planners using focus group methodology and semi-structured individual interviews. Moreover, citizen contributions in four applications of the OPT were analyzed. The results reveal that the biggest challenges for citizen dialogues on planning in general and on climate change, in particular, appear not mainly rooted in the technical functions of the OPT. Rather, problems lie in (i) the lack of municipal strategy for citizen participation and in applying OPTs, (ii) a disparagement in citizens abilities to contribute to forming robust and sustainable cities, and (iii) in diverging views about the role of citizen contributions. This is reflected in how the OPT is used. While the examined OPT shows potential, the results indicate that visualized contexts for planning might be too scant to be entirely meaningful, and it lacks mechanisms for feedback. Not using the full potential of the OPT makes citizens less engaged and risks to adversely affect learning and citizens contributions to solving complex issues.Funding Agencies|Norrkoping Research and Development Foundation; Swedish Research Council FormasSwedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council Formas [942-2015-106]</p

Visualization-supported dialogues in the Baltic Sea Region

This study explores visualization-supported dialogues with water management and ecosystem stakeholders from four catchments in Sweden, Latvia, Germany and Poland. An interactive visualization tool was designed to present information regarding modelled effects of chosen future pathways including different measures that address ecosystem issues under present and future scenarios of land use and climate change, and estimated benefits and costs of the measures. This paper assesses if and how visualization-supported dialogues hinder or support key components of good governance of water and ecosystem management among expert stakeholders. We discuss challenges and opportunities related to the tool and dialogue design, and performance of dialogues. Results from a cross-case workshop indicate that the form and functionality of the tool contributes to participation, empowerment, accessibility and flexibility, while dialogue design is instrumental for encouraging trust and inclusion of local knowledge and competence.Funding Agencies|BONUS [2014-73]</p

Visualization for supporting individual climate change adaptation planning: Assessment of a web-based tool

Homeowners are important actors in implementing climate change adaptation. However, individual socio-cognitive constraints related to risk perceptions and perceived capacity may hamper their action. Climate change visualization could help planning and management overcome such constraints by offering accessible information to increase individual adaptive capacity. Such visualization would require that information be perceived as legitimate and credible by emphasizing the diversity of impacts and alternative options, and simultaneously as salient by highlighting context-specific risks and measures. Based on focus group interviews and test sessions, we analysed how homeowners made sense of and discussed a specific interactive planning support tool – VisAdapt™ – integrating climate scenarios, local risk maps, and adaptation measures for various house types. The tool combines precise and general depictions in visualizing climate change to support adaptation among Nordic homeowners. Results reveal that the tool spurred reflection on concrete local risks and various adaptation actions. The tool was less successful in providing a framework for assessing the magnitude of anticipated changes, making these appear as generally small. Visualization aspects that are important for spurring reflection on adaptive action are specifying various climate parameters, relating climate impacts to established practices for managing weather risks, and emphasizing diverse concrete short- and long-term measures.Nordic Center of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research (NORD-STAR

Pedestrian Routing and Perspectives : WayFinder’s Route down the Lane—Come on with the Rain

People living in urban areas are often exposed to heat and inundation caused by heavy rains. Therefore, pedestrian routing in areas exposed to weather-related threats can be of value to citizens. In this study, water accumulated on roads, sidewalks and footpaths after rainfall and snowmelt was used as a case of adverse environmental conditions. Pedestrian routing was implemented in the web tool WayFinder and a group of 56 participants tested the tool in Trondheim, Norway. The study aimed to gain insight into their perspectives on the implemented pedestrian routing functionality to examine to what extent pedestrians find such functionality helpful for navigating in regions that are likely to be inundated. Each participant was asked to (1) use the tool in practice; (2) when walking, report on observed inundated areas; and (3) complete three questionnaires to provide feedback on the WayFinder tool. Although most of the participants were successful in using WayFinder, they preferred the selection of routes that passed through areas likely to be inundated and obtaining information about the risks than selecting a single route suggestion that already avoided exposed areas.Funding: FCT (Portugal)Portuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyEuropean Commission; FORMAS (Sweden)Swedish Research Council Formas [2017-01719]; NWO (Netherlands)Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)Netherlands Government; RCN (Norway) [274192]; European UnionEuropean Commission [690462]</p