Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserv

Lower respiratory tract infection and rapid expansion of an abdominal aortic aneurysm: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>The rate of abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion is related to multiple factors. There is some evidence that inflammation can accelerate aneurysm expansion. However, the association between pulmonary sepsis and rapid abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion is rarely reported.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>Here we present a case of a rapidly expanding abdominal aortic aneurysm in a 68-year-old Caucasian man with a concomitant lower respiratory tract infection and systemic sepsis requiring intensive monitoring and urgent endovascular intervention. Our patient had an uncomplicated post-operative recovery and a follow-up computed tomography scan at one month demonstrated no evidence of an endoleak.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This case highlights the potential association between pulmonary sepsis and rapid abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion. In such cases, a policy of frequent monitoring should be adopted to identify those patients requiring definitive management.</p

The combined effect of two mutations that alter serially homologous color pattern elements on the fore and hindwings of a butterfly

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ability for serially homologous structures to acquire a separate identity has been primarily investigated for structures dependent on Hox gene input but is still incompletely understood in other systems. The fore and hindwings of butterflies are serially homologous structures as are the serially homologous eyespots that can decorate each of these wings. Eyespots can vary in number between fore and hindwings of the same individual and mutations of large effect can control the total number of eyespots that each of the wings displays. Here we investigate the genetics of a new spontaneous color pattern mutation, <it>Missing</it>, that alters eyespot number in the nymphalid butterfly, <it>Bicyclus anynana</it>. We further test the interaction of <it>Missing </it>with a previously described mutation, <it>Spotty</it>, describe the developmental stage affected by <it>Missing</it>, and test whether <it>Missing </it>is a mutant variant of the gene <it>Distal-less </it>via a linkage association study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>Missing </it>removes or greatly reduces the size of two of the hindwing eyespots from the row of seven eyespots, with no detectable effect on the rest of the wing pattern. Offspring carrying a single <it>Missing </it>allele display intermediate sized eyespots at these positions. <it>Spotty </it>has the opposite effect of <it>Missing</it>, i.e., it introduces two extra eyespots in homologous wing positions to those affected by <it>Missing</it>, but on the forewing. When <it>Missing </it>is combined with <it>Spotty </it>the size of the two forewing eyespots decreases but the size of the hindwing spots stays the same, suggesting that these two mutations have a combined effect on the forewing such that <it>Missing </it>reduces eyespot size when in the presence of a <it>Spotty </it>mutant allele, but that <it>Spotty </it>has no effect on the hindwing. <it>Missing </it>prevents the complete differentiation of two of the eyespot foci on the hindwing. We found no evidence for any linkage between the <it>Distal-less </it>and <it>Missing </it>genes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The spontaneous mutation <it>Missing </it>controls the differentiation of the signaling centers of a subset of the serial homologous eyespots present on both the fore and the hindwing in a dose-dependent fashion. The effect of <it>Missing </it>on the forewing, however, is only observed when the mutation <it>Spotty </it>introduces additional eyespots on this wing. <it>Spotty</it>, on the other hand, controls the differentiation of eyespot centers only on the forewing. <it>Spotty</it>, unlike <it>Missing</it>, may be under Ubx gene regulation, since it affects a subset of eyespots on only one of the serially homologous wings.</p

Increased Fluorodeoxyglucose Uptake Following Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A Predictor of Endoleak?

The main criterion for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is an AAA diameter ≥5.5 cm. However, some AAAs rupture when they are smaller. Size alone may therefore not be a sufficient criterion to determine rupture risk. Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake is increased in the presence of inflammation and it was suggested that this may be a better predictor of rupture risk than AAA size. Furthermore, increased FDG uptake following endovascular AAA repair may be an indirect predictor of continuous AAA sac enlargement due to the presence of an endoleak (even if this is not detected by imaging modalities) and/or increased AAA rupture risk. The role of FDG uptake needs to be explored further in the management of AAAs

GRADE Guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence—An overview in the context of health decision-making

Objectives: The objective of the study is to present the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) conceptual approach to the assessment of certainty of evidence from modeling studies (i.e., certainty associated with model outputs). / Study Design and Setting: Expert consultations and an international multidisciplinary workshop informed development of a conceptual approach to assessing the certainty of evidence from models within the context of systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and health care decisions. The discussions also clarified selected concepts and terminology used in the GRADE approach and by the modeling community. Feedback from experts in a broad range of modeling and health care disciplines addressed the content validity of the approach. / Results: Workshop participants agreed that the domains determining the certainty of evidence previously identified in the GRADE approach (risk of bias, indirectness, inconsistency, imprecision, reporting bias, magnitude of an effect, dose–response relation, and the direction of residual confounding) also apply when assessing the certainty of evidence from models. The assessment depends on the nature of model inputs and the model itself and on whether one is evaluating evidence from a single model or multiple models. We propose a framework for selecting the best available evidence from models: 1) developing de novo, a model specific to the situation of interest, 2) identifying an existing model, the outputs of which provide the highest certainty evidence for the situation of interest, either “off-the-shelf” or after adaptation, and 3) using outputs from multiple models. We also present a summary of preferred terminology to facilitate communication among modeling and health care disciplines. / Conclusion: This conceptual GRADE approach provides a framework for using evidence from models in health decision-making and the assessment of certainty of evidence from a model or models. The GRADE Working Group and the modeling community are currently developing the detailed methods and related guidance for assessing specific domains determining the certainty of evidence from models across health care–related disciplines (e.g., therapeutic decision-making, toxicology, environmental health, and health economics)

Hemoglobin Promotes Staphylococcus aureus Nasal Colonization

Staphylococcus aureus nasal colonization is an important risk factor for community and nosocomial infection. Despite the importance of S. aureus to human health, molecular mechanisms and host factors influencing nasal colonization are not well understood. To identify host factors contributing to nasal colonization, we collected human nasal secretions and analyzed their ability to promote S. aureus surface colonization. Some individuals produced secretions possessing the ability to significantly promote S. aureus surface colonization. Nasal secretions pretreated with protease no longer promoted S. aureus surface colonization, suggesting the involvement of protein factors. The major protein components of secretions were identified and subsequent analysis revealed that hemoglobin possessed the ability to promote S. aureus surface colonization. Immunoprecipitation of hemoglobin from nasal secretions resulted in reduced S. aureus surface colonization. Furthermore, exogenously added hemoglobin significantly decreased the inoculum necessary for nasal colonization in a rodent model. Finally, we found that hemoglobin prevented expression of the agr quorum sensing system and that aberrant constitutive expression of the agr effector molecule, RNAIII, resulted in reduced nasal colonization of S. aureus. Collectively our results suggest that the presence of hemoglobin in nasal secretions contributes to S. aureus nasal colonization

A method for estimation of elasticities in metabolic networks using steady state and dynamic metabolomics data and linlog kinetics

BACKGROUND: Dynamic modeling of metabolic reaction networks under in vivo conditions is a crucial step in order to obtain a better understanding of the (dis)functioning of living cells. So far dynamic metabolic models generally have been based on mechanistic rate equations which often contain so many parameters that their identifiability from experimental data forms a serious problem. Recently, approximative rate equations, based on the linear logarithmic (linlog) format have been proposed as a suitable alternative with fewer parameters. RESULTS: In this paper we present a method for estimation of the kinetic model parameters, which are equal to the elasticities defined in Metabolic Control Analysis, from metabolite data obtained from dynamic as well as steady state perturbations, using the linlog kinetic format. Additionally, we address the question of parameter identifiability from dynamic perturbation data in the presence of noise. The method is illustrated using metabolite data generated with a dynamic model of the glycolytic pathway of Saccharomyces cerevisiae based on mechanistic rate equations. Elasticities are estimated from the generated data, which define the complete linlog kinetic model of the glycolysis. The effect of data noise on the accuracy of the estimated elasticities is presented. Finally, identifiable subset of parameters is determined using information on the standard deviations of the estimated elasticities through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. CONCLUSION: The parameter estimation within the linlog kinetic framework as presented here allows the determination of the elasticities directly from experimental data from typical dynamic and/or steady state experiments. These elasticities allow the reconstruction of the full kinetic model of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and the determination of the control coefficients. MC simulations revealed that certain elasticities are potentially unidentifiable from dynamic data only. Addition of steady state perturbation of enzyme activities solved this problem

Testing Biochemistry Revisited: How In Vivo Metabolism Can Be Understood from In Vitro Enzyme Kinetics

A decade ago, a team of biochemists including two of us, modeled yeast glycolysis and showed that one of the most studied biochemical pathways could not be quite understood in terms of the kinetic properties of the constituent enzymes as measured in cell extract. Moreover, when the same model was later applied to different experimental steady-state conditions, it often exhibited unrestrained metabolite accumulation

Quantitative Genetics, Pleiotropy, and Morphological Integration in the Dentition of Papio hamadryas

Variation in the mammalian dentition is highly informative of adaptations and evolutionary relationships, and consequently has been the focus of considerable research. Much of the current research exploring the genetic underpinnings of dental variation can trace its roots to Olson and Miller's 1958 book Morphological Integration. These authors explored patterns of correlation in the post-canine dentitions of the owl monkey and Hyopsodus, an extinct condylarth from the Eocene. Their results were difficult to interpret, as was even noted by the authors, due to a lack of genetic information through which to view the patterns of correlation. Following in the spirit of Olson and Miller's research, we present a quantitative genetic analysis of dental variation in a pedigreed population of baboons. We identify patterns of genetic correlations that provide insight to the genetic architecture of the baboon dentition. This genetic architecture indicates the presence of at least three modules: an incisor module that is genetically independent of the post-canine dentition, and a premolar module that demonstrates incomplete pleiotropy with the molar module. We then compare this matrix of genetic correlations to matrices of phenotypic correlations between the same measurements made on museum specimens of another baboon subspecies and the Southeast Asian colobine Presbytis. We observe moderate significant correlations between the matrices from these three primate taxa. From these observations we infer similarity in modularity and hypothesize a common pattern of genetic integration across the dental arcade in the Cercopithecoidea

The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle

The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises