The development and application of aerodynamic uncertainties: And flight test verification for the space shuttle orbiter

The approach used in establishing the predicted aerodynamic uncertainties and the process used in applying these uncertainties during the design of the Orbiter flight control system and the entry trajectories are presented. The flight test program that was designed to verify the stability and control derivatives with a minimum of test flights is presented and a comparison of preflight predictions with preliminary flight test results is made. It is concluded that the approach used for the Orbiter is applicable to future programs where testing is limited due to time constraints or funding

Conditional quantum logic using two atomic qubits

In this paper we propose and analyze a feasible scheme where the detection of a single scattered photon from two trapped atoms or ions performs a conditional unitary operation on two qubits. As examples we consider the preparation of all four Bell states, the reverse operation that is a Bell measurement, and a CNOT gate. We study the effect of atomic motion and multiple scattering, by evaluating Bell inequalities violations, and by calculating the CNOT gate fidelity.Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures in 11 file

A Parameter Model of Gas Exchange for the Seasonal Sea Ice Zone

Carbon budgets for the polar oceans require better constraint on air–sea gas exchange in the sea ice zone (SIZ). Here, we utilize advances in the theory of turbulence, mixing and air–sea flux in the ice–ocean boundary layer (IOBL) to formulate a simple model for gas exchange when the surface ocean is partially covered by sea ice. The gas transfer velocity (k) is related to shear-driven and convection-driven turbulence in the aqueous mass boundary layer, and to the mean-squared wave slope at the air–sea interface. We use the model to estimate k along the drift track of ice-tethered profilers (ITPs) in the Arctic. Individual estimates of daily-averaged k from ITP drifts ranged between 1.1 and 22 m d−1, and the fraction of open water (f) ranged from 0 to 0.83. Converted to area-weighted effective transfer velocities (keff), the minimum value of keff was 10−55 m d−1 near f = 0 with values exceeding keff = 5 m d−1 at f = 0.4. The model indicates that effects from shear and convection in the sea ice zone contribute an additional 40% to the magnitude of keff, beyond what would be predicted from an estimate of keff based solely upon a wind speed parameterization. Although the ultimate scaling relationship for gas exchange in the sea ice zone will require validation in laboratory and field studies, the basic parameter model described here demonstrates that it is feasible to formulate estimates of k based upon properties of the IOBL using data sources that presently exist

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Multimodel Analysis of the Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss at Quadrupled CO2

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordAntarctic sea ice cover is projected to significantly decrease by the end of the twenty-first century if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, with potential consequences for Southern Hemisphere weather and climate. Here we examine the atmospheric response to projected Antarctic sea ice loss at quadrupled CO2, inferred from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. Our study is the first multimodel analysis of the atmospheric response to Antarctic sea ice loss. Projected sea ice loss enhances the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode, which slightly damps the positive Southern Annular Mode response to increased CO2, particularly in spring. The negative Southern Annular Mode response largely reflects a weakening of the eddy-driven jet, and to a lesser extent, an equatorward shift of the jet. Sea ice loss induces near-surface warming over the high-latitude Southern Ocean, but warming does not penetrate over the Antarctic continent. In spring, we find multimodel evidence for a weakened polar stratospheric vortex in response to sea ice loss.NER

Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback

Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH[subscript 4] and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions.United States. Dept. of Energy (Climate Change Prediction Program Grant DE-PS02-08ER08-05)United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Science (Biological and Environmental Research

Tracer Applications of Noble Gas Radionuclides in the Geosciences

The noble gas radionuclides, including 81Kr (half-life = 229,000 yr), 85Kr (11 yr), and 39Ar (269 yr), possess nearly ideal chemical and physical properties for studies of earth and environmental processes. Recent advances in Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA), a laser-based atom counting method, have enabled routine measurements of the radiokrypton isotopes, as well as the demonstration of the ability to measure 39Ar in environmental samples. Here we provide an overview of the ATTA technique, and a survey of recent progress made in several laboratories worldwide. We review the application of noble gas radionuclides in the geosciences and discuss how ATTA can help advance these fields, specifically determination of groundwater residence times using 81Kr, 85Kr, and 39Ar; dating old glacial ice using 81Kr; and an 39Ar survey of the main water masses of the oceans, to study circulation pathways and estimate mean residence times. Other scientific questions involving deeper circulation of fluids in the Earth's crust and mantle also are within the scope of future applications. We conclude that the geoscience community would greatly benefit from an ATTA facility dedicated to this field, with instrumentation for routine measurements, as well as for research on further development of ATTA methods