Drivers of marine heatwaves in the Northwest Atlantic: the role of air-sea interaction during onset and decline

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Schlegel, R. W., Oliver, E. C. J., & Chen, K. Drivers of marine heatwaves in the Northwest Atlantic: the role of air-sea interaction during onset and decline. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, (2021): 627970, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.627970Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in duration and intensity at a global scale and are projected to continue to increase due to the anthropogenic warming of the climate. Because MHWs may have drastic impacts on fisheries and other marine goods and services, there is a growing interest in understanding the predictability and developing practical predictions of these events. A necessary step toward prediction is to develop a better understanding of the drivers and processes responsible for the development of MHWs. Prior research has shown that air–sea heat flux and ocean advection across sharp thermal gradients are common physical processes governing these anomalous events. In this study we apply various statistical analyses and employ the self-organizing map (SOM) technique to determine specifically which of the many candidate physical processes, informed by a theoretical mixed-layer heat budget, have the most pronounced effect on the onset and/or decline of MHWs on the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf. It was found that latent heat flux is the most common driver of the onset of MHWs. Mixed layer depth (MLD) also strongly modulates the onset of MHWs. During the decay of MHWs, atmospheric forcing does not explain the evolution of the MHWs well, suggesting that oceanic processes are important in the decay of MHWs. The SOM analysis revealed three primary synoptic scale patterns during MHWs: low-pressure cyclonic Autumn-Winter systems, high-pressure anti-cyclonic Spring-Summer blocking, and mild but long-lasting Summer blocking. Our results show that nearly half of past MHWs on the Northwest Atlantic shelf are initiated by positive heat flux anomaly into the ocean, but less than one fifth of MHWs decay due to this process, suggesting that oceanic processes, e.g., advection and mixing are the primary driver for the decay of most MHWs.RS was supported by the Ocean Frontier Institute International Postdoctoral Fellowship hosted jointly by Dalhousie University and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, through an award from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund. EO was funded through the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255 and Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction, and Response Network Early Career Faculty Grant 1-02-02-059.1. KC was supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program under grant NA19OAR4320074 and Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) program under grant NA20OAR4310398

Climate change in coastal waters: Time series properties affecting trend estimation

In South Africa, 129 in situ temperature time series of up to 43 years are used for investigations of the thermal characteristics of coastal seawater. They are collected with handheld thermometers or underwater temperature recorders (UTRs) and are recorded at precisions from 0.58 to 0.0018C. Using the natural range of seasonal signals and variability for 84 of these time series, their length, decadal trend, and data precision were systematically varied before fitting generalized least squares (GLS) models to study the effect these variables have on trend detection. The variables that contributed most to accurate trend detection, in decreasing order, were time series length, decadal trend, variance, percentage of missing data (% NA), and measurement precision. Time series greater than 30 years in length are preferred and although larger decadal trends are modeled more accurately, modeled significance (p value) is largely affected by the variance present. The risk of committing both type-1 and type-2 errors increases when $5% NA is present. There is no appreciable effect on model accuracy between measurement precision of 0.18–0.0018C. Measurement precisions of 0.58C require longer time series to give equally accurate model results. The implication is that the thermometer time series in this dataset, and others around the world, must be at least two years longer than their UTR counterparts to be useful for decadal-scale climate change studies. Furthermore, adding older lower-precision UTR data to newer higher-precision UTR data within the same time series will increase their usefulness for this purpose

A Deep ROSAT HRI Observation of NGC 1313

We describe a series of observations of NGC 1313 using the ROSAT HRI with a combined exposure time of 183.5 ksec. The observations span an interval between 1992 and 1998; the purpose of observations since 1994 was to monitor the X-ray flux of SN1978K, one of several luminous sources in the galaxy. No diffuse emission is detected in the galaxy to a level of ~1-2x10^37 ergs/s/arcmin^-2. A total of eight sources are detected in the summed image within the D_25 diameter of the galaxy. The luminosities of five of the eight range from \~6x10^37 to ~6x10^38 erg/s; these sources are most likely accreting X-ray binaries, similar to sources obseved in M31 and M33. The remaining three sources all emit above 10^39 erg/s. We present light curves of the five brightest sources. Variability is detected at the 99.9% level from four of these. We identify one of the sources as an NGC 1313 counterpart of a Galactic X-ray source. The light curve, though crudely sampled, most closely resembles that of a Galactic black hole candidate such as GX339-4, but with considerably higher peak X-ray luminosity. An additional seven sources lie outside of the D_25 diameter and are either foreground stars or background AGN.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures; accepted AJ, scheduled for November 200

A novel approach to quantify metrics of upwelling intensity, frequency, and duration

The importance of coastal upwelling systems is widely recognized. However, several aspects of the current and future behaviors of these systems remain uncertain. Fluctuations in temperature because of anthropogenic climate change are hypothesized to affect upwelling-favorable winds and coastal upwelling is expected to intensify across all Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. To better understand how upwelling may change in the future, it is necessary to develop a more rigorous method of quantifying this phenomenon. In this paper, we use SST data and wind data in a novel method of detecting upwelling signals and quantifying metrics of upwelling intensity, duration, and frequency at four sites within the Benguela Upwelling System. We found that indicators of upwelling are uniformly detected across five SST products for each of the four sites and that the duration of those signals is longer in SST products with higher spatial resolutions. Moreover, the high-resolution SST products are significantly more likely to display upwelling signals at 25 km away from the coast when signals were also detected at the coast

What Produced the Ultraluminous Supernova Remnant in NGC 6946?

The ultraluminous supernova remnant (SNR) in NGC 6946 is the brightest known SNR in X-rays, ~1000 times brighter than Cas A. To probe the nature of this remnant and its progenitor, we have obtained high-dispersion optical echelle spectra. The echelle spectra detect H-alpha, [N II], and [O III] lines, and resolve these lines into a narrow (FWHM ~20--40 km/s) component from un-shocked material and a broad (FWHM ~250 km/s) component from shocked material. Both narrow and broad components have unusually high [N II]/H-alpha ratios, ~1. Using the echelle observation, archival HST images, and archival ROSAT X-ray observations, we conclude that the SNR was produced by a normal supernova, whose progenitor was a massive star, either a WN star or a luminous blue variable. The high luminosity of the remnant is caused by the supernova ejecta expanding into a dense, nitrogen-rich circumstellar nebula created by the progenitor.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures. To be published in The Astronomical Journal, March 200

The Lyman-alpha Forest Power Spectrum from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

We measure the power spectrum, P_F(k,z), of the transmitted flux in the Ly-alpha forest using 3035 high redshift quasar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. This sample is almost two orders of magnitude larger than any previously available data set, yielding statistical errors of ~0.6% and ~0.005 on, respectively, the overall amplitude and logarithmic slope of P_F(k,z). This unprecedented statistical power requires a correspondingly careful analysis of the data and of possible systematic contaminations in it. For this purpose we reanalyze the raw spectra to make use of information not preserved by the standard pipeline. We investigate the details of the noise in the data, resolution of the spectrograph, sky subtraction, quasar continuum, and metal absorption. We find that background sources such as metals contribute significantly to the total power and have to be subtracted properly. We also find clear evidence for SiIII correlations with the Ly-alpha forest and suggest a simple model to account for this contribution to the power. While it is likely that our newly developed analysis technique does not eliminate all systematic errors in the P_F(k,z) measurement below the level of the statistical errors, our tests indicate that any residual systematics in the analysis are unlikely to affect the inference of cosmological parameters from P_F(k,z). These results should provide an essential ingredient for all future attempts to constrain modeling of structure formation, cosmological parameters, and theories for the origin of primordial fluctuations.Comment: 92 pages, 45 of them figures, submitted to ApJ, data available at http://feynman.princeton.edu/~pmcdonal/LyaF/sdss.htm

Double-Peaked Low-Ionization Emission Lines in Active Galactic Nuclei

We present a new sample of 116 double-peaked Balmer line Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Double-peaked emission lines are believed to originate in the accretion disks of AGN, a few hundred gravitational radii (Rg) from the supermassive black hole. We investigate the properties of the candidate disk emitters with respect to the full sample of AGN over the same redshifts, focusing on optical, radio and X-ray flux, broad line shapes and narrow line equivalent widths and line flux-ratios. We find that the disk-emitters have medium luminosities (~10^44erg/s) and FWHM on average six times broader than the AGN in the parent sample. The double-peaked AGN are 1.6 times more likely to be radio-sources and are predominantly (76%) radio quiet, with about 12% of the objects classified as LINERs. Statistical comparison of the observed double-peaked line profiles with those produced by axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric accretion disk models allows us to impose constraints on accretion disk parameters. The observed Halpha line profiles are consistent with accretion disks with inclinations smaller than 50 deg, surface emissivity slopes of 1.0-2.5, outer radii larger than ~2000 Rg, inner radii between 200-800Rg, and local turbulent broadening of 780-1800 km/s. The comparison suggests that 60% of accretion disks require some form of asymmetry (e.g., elliptical disks, warps, spiral shocks or hot spots).Comment: 60 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in AJ. For high quality figures and full tables, please see http://astro.princeton.edu/~iskra/disks.htm

NYU-VAGC: a galaxy catalog based on new public surveys

Here we present the New York University Value-Added Galaxy Catalog (NYU-VAGC), a catalog of local galaxies (mostly below a redshift of about 0.3) based on a set of publicly-released surveys (including the 2dFGRS, 2MASS, PSCz, FIRST, and RC3) matched to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 2. Excluding areas masked by bright stars, the photometric sample covers 3514 square degrees and the spectroscopic sample covers 2627 square degrees (with about 85% completeness). Earlier, proprietary versions of this catalog have formed the basis of many SDSS investigations of the power spectrum, correlation function, and luminosity function of galaxies. We calculate and compile derived quantities (for example, K-corrections and structural parameters for galaxies). The SDSS catalog presented here is photometrically recalibrated, reducing systematic calibration errors across the sky from about 2% to about 1%. We include an explicit description of the geometry of the catalog, including all imaging and targeting information as a function of sky position. Finally, we have performed eyeball quality checks on a large number of objects in the catalog in order to flag deblending and other errors. This catalog is complementary to the SDSS Archive Servers, in that NYU-VAGC's calibration, geometrical description, and conveniently small size are specifically designed for studying galaxy properties and large-scale structure statistics using the SDSS spectroscopic catalog.Comment: accepted by AJ; full resolution version available at http://sdss.physics.nyu.edu/vagc/va_paper.ps; data files available at http://sdss.physics.nyu.edu/vagc

Spitzer 70~μ\mum Emission as a SFR Indicator for Sub--Galactic Regions

We use Spitzer 24 $\mu$m, 70 $\mu$m and ground based H$\alpha$ data for a sample of 40 SINGS galaxies to establish a star formation rate (SFR) indicator using 70 $\mu$m emission for sub--galactic ($\sim0.05-2\ \rm{kpc}$) line-emitting regions and to investigate limits in application. A linear correlation between 70 $\mu$m and SFR is found and a star formation indicator SFR(70) is proposed for line-emitting sub-galactic regions as $\rm \Sigma(SFR)\ ({M_{\odot}\cdot yr^{-1}\cdot kpc^{-2}})=9.4\times10^{-44}\ \Sigma(70)\ \rm{(ergs\cdot s^{-1}\cdot kpc^{-2})}$, for regions with$12+\rm{log(O/H)}\gtrsim8.4$and$\rm \Sigma(SFR)\gtrsim10^{-3}\ (M_{\odot}\cdot yr^{-1}\cdot kpc^{-2})$, with a 1-$\sigma$dispersion around the calibration of$\sim0.16$dex. We also discuss the influence of metallicity on the scatter of the data. Comparing with the SFR indicator at 70$\mu$m for integrated light from galaxies, we find that there is$\sim40%$excess 70$\mu$m emission in galaxies, which can be attributed to stellar populations not involved in the current star formation activity.Comment: 36 pages, 1 table, 18 figures, accepted by Ap

Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Goldsmit, J., Schlegel, R. W., Filbee-Dexter, K., MacGregor, K. A., Johnson, L. E., Mundy, C. J., Savoie, A. M., McKindsey, C. W., Howland, K. L., & Archambault, P. Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover. Frontiers in Marine Science, 18, (2021): 742209. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems through the expansion and contraction of species’ ranges. Sea ice loss and warming temperatures are expected to expand habitat availability for macroalgae along long stretches of Arctic coastlines. To better understand the current distribution of kelp forests in the Eastern Canadian Arctic, kelps were sampled along the coasts for species identifications and percent cover. The sampling effort was supplemented with occurrence records from global biodiversity databases, searches in the literature, and museum records. Environmental information and occurrence records were used to develop ensemble models for predicting habitat suitability and a Random Forest model to predict kelp cover for the dominant kelp species in the region – Agarum clathratum, Alaria esculenta, and Laminariaceae species (Laminaria solidungula and Saccharina latissima). Ice thickness, sea temperature and salinity explained the highest percentage of kelp distribution. Both modeling approaches showed that the current extent of arctic kelps is potentially much greater than the available records suggest. These modeling approaches were projected into the future using predicted environmental data for 2050 and 2100 based on the most extreme emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The models agreed that predicted distribution of kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic is likely to expand to more northern locations under future emissions scenarios, with the exception of the endemic arctic kelp L. solidungula, which is more likely to lose a significant proportion of suitable habitat. However, there were differences among species regarding predicted cover for both current and future projections. Notwithstanding model-specific variation, it is evident that kelps are widespread throughout the area and likely contribute significantly to the functioning of current Arctic ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of kelp in Arctic ecosystems and the underestimation of their potential distribution there.This work was supported by ArcticNet (P101 ArcticKelp), Fisheries and Oceans Canada Arctic Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Arctic Science and Aquatic Invasive Species Monitoring and Research Funds, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), NRCan Polar Continental Shelf Program Support, Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN), the Nunavut Marine Region Wildlife Management Board (NWMB), Quebec-Ocean, and the Ocean Frontier Institute through an award from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network of Centres of Excellence’s (MEOPAR-NCE) Southampton Island Marine Ecosystem Project, and the Belmont Forum–BiodivERsA’s De-icing of Arctic Coasts: critical or new opportunities for marine biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (ACCES). KF-D was supported by the Australian Research Council (DE190100692)