Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot : model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Galactic Core-Collapse Supernovae at IceCube: “Fire Drill” Data Challenges and follow-up

The next Galactic core-collapse supernova (CCSN) presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make astrophysical measurements using neutrinos, gravitational waves, and electromagnetic radiation. CCSNe local to the Milky Way are extremely rare, so it is paramount that detectors are prepared to observe the signal when it arrives. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory, a gigaton water Cherenkov detector below the South Pole, is sensitive to the burst of neutrinos released by a Galactic CCSN at a level >10σ. This burst of neutrinos precedes optical emission by hours to days, enabling neutrinos to serve as an early warning for follow-up observation. IceCube\u27s detection capabilities make it a cornerstone of the global network of neutrino detectors monitoring for Galactic CCSNe, the SuperNova Early Warning System (SNEWS 2.0). In this contribution, we describe IceCube\u27s sensitivity to Galactic CCSNe and strategies for operational readiness, including "fire drill" data challenges. We also discuss coordination with SNEWS 2.0

All-Energy Search for Solar Atmospheric Neutrinos with IceCube

The interaction of cosmic rays with the solar atmosphere generates a secondary flux of mesons that decay into photons and neutrinos – the so-called solar atmospheric flux. Although the gamma-ray component of this flux has been observed in Fermi-LAT and HAWC Observatory data, the neutrino component remains undetected. The energy distribution of those neutrinos follows a soft spectrum that extends from the GeV to the multi-TeV range, making large Cherenkov neutrino telescopes a suitable for probing this flux. In this contribution, we will discuss current progress of a search for the solar neutrino flux by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory using all available data since 2011. Compared to the previous analysis which considered only high-energy muon neutrino tracks, we will additionally consider events produced by all flavors of neutrinos down to GeV-scale energies. These new events should improve our analysis sensitivity since the flux falls quickly with energy. Determining the magnitude of the neutrino flux is essential, since it is an irreducible background to indirect solar dark matter searches

TXS 0506+056 with Updated IceCube Data

Past results from the IceCube Collaboration have suggested that the blazar TXS 0506+056 is a potential source of astrophysical neutrinos. However, in the years since there have been numerous updates to event processing and reconstruction, as well as improvements to the statistical methods used to search for astrophysical neutrino sources. These improvements in combination with additional years of data have resulted in the identification of NGC 1068 as a second neutrino source candidate. This talk will re-examine time-dependent neutrino emission from TXS 0506+056 using the most recent northern-sky data sample that was used in the analysis of NGC 1068. The results of using this updated data sample to obtain a significance and flux fit for the 2014 TXS 0506+056 "untriggered" neutrino flare are reported

Recent neutrino oscillation results with the IceCube experiment

The IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory is a Cherenkov detector instrumented in a cubic kilometer of ice at the South Pole. IceCube’s primary scientific goal is the detection of TeV neutrino emissions from astrophysical sources. At the lower center of the IceCube array, there is a subdetector called DeepCore, which has a denser configuration that makes it possible to lower the energy threshold of IceCube and observe GeV-scale neutrinos, opening the window to atmospheric neutrino oscillations studies. Advances in physics sensitivity have recently been achieved by employing Convolutional Neural Networks to reconstruct neutrino interactions in the DeepCore detector. In this contribution, the recent IceCube result from the atmospheric muon neutrino disappearance analysis using the CNN-reconstructed neutrino sample are presented and compared to the existing worldwide measurements

Angular dependence of the atmospheric neutrino flux with IceCube data

IceCube Neutrino Observatory, the cubic kilometer detector embedded in ice of the geographic South Pole, is capable of detecting particles from several GeV up to PeV energies enabling precise neutrino spectrum measurement. The diffuse neutrino flux can be subdivided into three components: astrophysical, from extraterrestrial sources; conventional, from pion and kaon decays in atmospheric Cosmic Ray cascades; and the yet undetected prompt component from the decay of charmed hadrons. A particular focus of this work is to test the predicted angular dependence of the atmospheric neutrino flux using an unfolding method. Unfolding is a set of methods aimed at determining a value from related quantities in a model-independent way, eliminating the influence of several assumptions made in the process. In this work, we unfold the muon neutrino energy spectrum and employ a novel technique for rebinning the observable space to ensure sufficient event numbers within the low statistic region at the highest energies. We present the unfolded energy and zenith angle spectrum reconstructed from IceCube data and compare the result with model expectations and previous measurements

Searching for IceCube sub-TeV neutrino counterparts to sub-threshold Gravitational Wave events

Since the release of the Gravitational Wave Transient Catalogue GWTC-2.1 by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration, sub-threshold gravitational wave (GW) candidates are publicly available. They are expected to be released in real-time as well, in the upcoming O4 run. Using these GW candidates for multi-messenger studies complement the ongoing efforts to identify neutrino counterparts to GW events. This in turn, allows us to schedule electromagnetic follow-up searches more efficiently. However, the definition and criteria for sub-threshold candidates are pretty flexible. Finding a multi-messenger counterpart via archival studies for these candidates will help to set up strong bounds on the GW parameters which are useful for defining a GW signal as sub-threshold, thereby increasing their significance for scheduling follow-up searches. Here, we present the current status of this ongoing work with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. We perform a selection of the sub-threshold GW candidates from GWTC-2.1 and conduct an archival search for sub-TeV neutrino counterparts detected by the dense infill array of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, known as "DeepCore". For this, an Unbinned Maximum Likelihood (UML) method is used. We report the 90% C.L. sensitivities of this sub-TeV neutrino dataset for each selected sub-threshold GW candidate, considering the spatial and temporal correlation between the GW and neutrino events within a 1000 s time window