Biocomplexity in Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) of Puget Sound, USA

Small-scale genetic and demographic diversity can stabilize populations on a larger scale. However, subpopulations of pelagic fish species can be difficult to distinguish. Here, we examine demographic diversity in 21 stocks of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in Puget Sound, USA using a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) model, and data from both acoustic surveys paired with trawls, and subtidal egg surveys to estimate population growth trends. Herring populations associated with individual spawning beaches are asynchronous, but share a common negative growth rate across the Puget Sound estuary. We found that both survey techniques observe the same underlying demographic processes, and that egg surveys are a more accurate estimator of total spawning biomass. We used states obtained from MARSS analysis to measure portfolio effects in Puget Sound herring, and found that the Puget Sound population as a whole is stabilized by the presence of several separate spawning subpopulations. Available environmental data was not sufficient to explain variations in spawning biomass; however, herring may respond to spawning site conditions that aren’t currently measured

Resurgence of an Apex Marine Predator and the Decline in Prey Body Size

In light of recent recoveries of marine mammal populations worldwide and heightened concern about their impacts on marine food webs and global fisheries, it has become increasingly important to understand the potential impacts of large marine mammal predators on prey populations and their life-history traits. In coastal waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean, marine mammals have increased in abundance over the past 40 to 50 y, including fish-eating killer whales that feed primarily on Chinook salmon. Chinook salmon, a species of high cultural and economic value, have exhibited marked declines in average size and age throughout most of their North American range. This raises the question of whether size-selective predation by marine mammals is generating these trends in life-history characteristics. Here we show that increased predation since the 1970s, but not fishery selection alone, can explain the changes in age and size structure observed for Chinook salmon populations along the west coast of North America. Simulations suggest that the decline in mean size results from the selective removal of large fish and an evolutionary shift toward faster growth and earlier maturation caused by selection. Our conclusion that intensifying predation by fish-eating killer whales contributes to the continuing decline in Chinook salmon body size points to conflicting management and conservation objectives for these two iconic species

Relating multi-sequence longitudinal intensity profiles and clinical covariates in new multiple sclerosis lesions

Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can be used to detect lesions in the brains of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. The formation of these lesions is a complex process involving inflammation, tissue damage, and tissue repair, all of which are visible on MRI. Here we characterize the lesion formation process on longitudinal, multi-sequence structural MRI from 34 MS patients and relate the longitudinal changes we observe within lesions to therapeutic interventions. In this article, we first outline a pipeline to extract voxel level, multi-sequence longitudinal profiles from four MRI sequences within lesion tissue. We then propose two models to relate clinical covariates to the longitudinal profiles. The first model is a principal component analysis (PCA) regression model, which collapses the information from all four profiles into a scalar value. We find that the score on the first PC identifies areas of slow, long-term intensity changes within the lesion at a voxel level, as validated by two experienced clinicians, a neuroradiologist and a neurologist. On a quality scale of 1 to 4 (4 being the highest) the neuroradiologist gave the score on the first PC a median rating of 4 (95% CI: [4,4]), and the neurologist gave it a median rating of 3 (95% CI: [3,3]). In the PCA regression model, we find that treatment with disease modifying therapies (p-value < 0.01), steroids (p-value < 0.01), and being closer to the boundary of abnormal signal intensity (p-value < 0.01) are associated with a return of a voxel to intensity values closer to that of normal-appearing tissue. The second model is a function-on-scalar regression, which allows for assessment of the individual time points at which the covariates are associated with the profiles. In the function-on-scalar regression both age and distance to the boundary were found to have a statistically significant association with the profiles

Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability

Phenotypic plasticity plays a key role in modulating how environmental variation influences population dynamics, but we have only rudimentary understanding of how plasticity interacts with the magnitude and predictability of environmental variation to affect population dynamics and persistence. We developed a stochastic individual-based model, in which phenotypes could respond to a temporally fluctuating environmental cue and fitness depended on the match between the phenotype and a randomly fluctuating trait optimum, to assess the absolute fitness and population dynamic consequences of plasticity under different levels of environmental stochasticity and cue reliability. When cue and optimum were tightly correlated, plasticity buffered absolute fitness from environmental variability, and population size remained high and relatively invariant. In contrast, when this correlation weakened and environmental variability was high, strong plasticity reduced population size, and populations with excessively strong plasticity had substantially greater extinction probability. Given that environments might become more variable and unpredictable in the future owing to anthropogenic influences, reaction norms that evolved under historic selective regimes could imperil populations in novel or changing environmental contexts. We suggest that demographic models (e.g. population viability analyses) would benefit from a more explicit consideration of how phenotypic plasticity influences population responses to environmental change

Individual Behavior Drives Ecosystem Function and the Impacts of Harvest

Current approaches for biodiversity conservation and management focus on sustaining high levels of diversity among species to maintain ecosystem function. We show that the diversity among individuals within a single population drives function at the ecosystem scale. Specifically, nutrient supply from individual fish differs from the population average \u3e80% of the time, and accounting for this individual variation nearly doubles estimates of nutrients supplied to the ecosystem. We test how management (i.e., selective harvest regimes) can alter ecosystem function and find that strategies targeting more active individuals reduce nutrient supply to the ecosystem up to 69%, a greater effect than body size–selective or nonselective harvest. Findings show that movement behavior at the scale of the individual can have crucial repercussions for the functioning of an entire ecosystem, proving an important challenge to the species-centric definition of biodiversity if the conservation and management of ecosystem function is a primary goal

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change

Experimental investigation of the elasticity of the human diaphragm

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Traumatic diaphragmatic ruptures affect mainly the left side. In an experimental study in human corpses we examined the stretch behaviour of the left and right diaphragmatic halves.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a total of 8 male and 8 female corpses each diaphragmatic half was divided into 4 different segments. Each segments stretch behaviour was investigated. In steps of 2 N the stretch was increased up to 24 N.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the female the left diaphragm showed a stronger elasticity compared to the right. Additionally the left diaphragm in females showed a higher elasticity in comparison to the left in males. Traumatic diaphragmatic ruptures affect mostly the central tendineous part or the junction between tendineous and muscular part of the diaphragmatic muscle. Accordingly we found a lower elasticity in these parts compared with the other diaphragmatic segments.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In summary it can be said that albeit some restrictions we were able to determine the elasticity of different diaphragmatic segments quantitatively and reproduceably with our presented method. Thereby a comparison of results of different diaphragmatic segments as well as of both diaphragmatic halves and of both genders was possible</p

Chiral potentials, perturbation theory, and the 1S0 channel of NN scattering

We use nucleon-nucleon phase shifts obtained from experimental data, together with the chiral expansion for the long-distance part of the NN interaction, to obtain information about the short-distance piece of the NN potential that is at work in the 1S0 channel. We find that if the scale R that defines the separation between "long-" and "short-" distance is chosen to be \lsim 1.8 fm then the energy dependence produced by short-distance dynamics is well approximated by a two-term polynomial for Tlab < 200 MeV. We also find that a quantitative description of NN dynamics is possible, at least in this channel, if one treats the long-distance parts of the chiral NN potential in perturbation theory. However, in order to achieve this we have to choose a separation scale R that is larger than 1.0 fm.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figure

Resource waves: phenological diversity enhances foraging opportunities for mobile consumers

Time can be a limiting constraint for consumers, particularly when resource phenology mediates foraging opportunity. Though a large body of research has explored how resource phenology influences trophic interactions, this work has focused on the topics of trophic mismatch or predator swamping, which typically occur over short periods, at small spatial extents or coarse resolutions. In contrast many consumers integrate across landscape heterogeneity in resource phenology, moving to track ephemeral food sources that propagate across space as resource waves. Here we provide a conceptual framework to advance the study of phenological diversity and resource waves. We define resource waves, review evidence of their importance in recent case studies, and demonstrate their broader ecological significance with a simulation model. We found that consumers ranging from fig wasps (Chalcidoidea) to grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) exploit resource waves, integrating across phenological diversity to make resource aggregates available for much longer than their component parts. In model simulations, phenological diversity was often more important to consumer energy gain than resource abundance per se. Current ecosystem-based management assumes that species abundance mediates the strength of trophic interactions. Our results challenge this assumption and highlight new opportunities for conservation and management. Resource waves are an emergent property of consumer– resource interactions and are broadly significant in ecology and conservationThis is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America and published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. It can be found at: http://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291939-9170/Keywords: phenological diversity, resource wave, trophic interaction, model, ecosystem-based management, movement, foraging, time-constraint, landscape heterogeneity, phenological trackin