Balancing Market Design and Opportunity Cost - The Swiss Case

In 2017, the Swiss electorate voted to transition the Swiss energy system towards energy efficiency and renewable energy resources. This transition entails many changes to the existing energy technologies and the supporting markets. In particular, this paper focuses on the Swiss electricity balancing markets and their adaptation in the context of the energy transition. I use an operational model for a set of Swiss hydropower plants to quantify the opportunity costs of balancing provision for hydropower under the past, current, and future Swiss balancing market designs. My results show that compared to the former balancing market design, significant cost savings can be achieved by the planned modifications. In addition, I show how the opportunity cost dynamics may change in the future with an increasing share of variable renewable energy in the system

Hydropower Operation in a Changing Market Environment – A Swiss Case Study

Hydropower (HP) is expected to play an important role in the European energy transition by providing back-up and storage capacity as well as flexibility for intermittent renewable energies. However, due to low electricity market prices the profitability of HP decreased in recent years. In this paper, we analyze historic revenue potentials and future market prospects for HP taking into account different development paths. Using a short-term HP operation model to capture market opportunities as well as technical and natural constraints of HP plants, we model three representative Swiss HP plants. The results indicate that in the last years, balancing markets could have provided significant additional revenues for HP plants. However, accounting for uncertainties and market characteristics, the potential of balancing markets is reduced but cross-market optimization is still beneficial. Looking into the future, market price prospects for the coming decade are low to modest. Global fuel markets and the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS) will be the main drivers for decisions for Swiss HP. The revenue potential from balancing markets will be reduced significantly in the future if all Swiss HP operators aim for balancing. While optimized operation across markets helps Swiss HP to increase its revenues, it is limited in scale

Bidding into balancing markets in a hydro-dominated electricity system

In an electricity system, demand and supply have to be balanced in real time. Since most energy is traded before real time already in forward, day-ahead and intraday markets imbalances can occur. To ensure the balance between demand and supply even if power plants deviate from their schedules, the system operator procures balancing capacity and energy in balancing markets. The market outcomes may significantly differ from one country to the other depending on the underlying generation technologies and market design. In this paper, we have a look at the balancing market prices of a hydro-dominated electricity system using Switzerland as a case study. By using a short-term hydropower operation model and a set of Swiss hydropower plants, we are able to identify a competitive benchmark for Swiss balancing market prices defined by the opportunity costs of hydropower for providing balancing capacity. Our results show that Swiss balancing market prices are influenced by several drivers but do not hint at any market imperfections

Integrating Economic and Ecological Benchmarking for a Sustainable Development of Hydropower

Hydropower reservoirs play an increasingly important role for the global electricity supply. Reservoirs are anthropogenically-dominated ecosystems because hydropower operations induce artificial water level fluctuations (WLF) that exceed natural fluctuations in frequency and amplitude. These WLF have detrimental ecological effects, which can be quantified as losses to ecosystem primary production due to lake bottoms that fall dry. To allow for a sustainable development of hydropower, these “ecological costs” of WLF need to be weighed against the “economic benefits” of hydropower that can balance and store intermittent renewable energy. We designed an economic hydropower operation model to derive WLF in large and small reservoirs for three different future energy market scenarios and quantified the according losses in ecosystem primary production in semi-natural outdoor experiments. Our results show that variations in market conditions affect WLF differently in small and large hydropower reservoirs and that increasing price volatility magnified WLF and reduced primary production. Our model allows an assessment of the trade-off between the objectives of preserving environmental resources and economic development, which lies at the core of emerging sustainability issues

The future of Swiss hydropower : how to distribute the risk and the profits?

Low electricity prices put economic pressure on hydropower companies. A more flexible water fee design can counteract this pressure and support hydropower companies during times when market revenues are low. However, this comes at the cost of lower revenues for resource owners. Using a sample of cost data for 62 companies and revenue data derived from an electricity market model, we have quantified this trade-off for the case of Switzerland. We found that electricity market price developments dominate changes in water fees and that for the profitability of hydropower, electricity prices are more important than water fee levels. However, with electricity prices of around CHF 40 per MWh, water fees can make the difference between profit and loss. Therefore, while flexible water fee regimes shift the market risk from producers to resource owners to some extent, the extent of this risk shift depends on the detailed design of the flexible regime

The Design of Variable Water Fees and its Impact on Swiss Hydropower Companies and Resource Owners

Water fees are a remuneration to be paid by the operators of hydropower plants to the owners of the water resource right. In Switzerland the fee is based on the gross capacity of the plant and independent from market conditions. This regulation implies that cantons and municipalities have a constant income from water fees, because the whole market risk lies with the producers. As revenues of hydropower companies have dropped after 2012 due to low electricity prices Swiss hydropower producers have been calling for a change in the water fee regime. The currently most probable policy change is a flexibilization of water fees. Within this paper we analyse the impacts of different water fee reform options - and how they depend on market conditions - from the hydropower producers (companies) and resource owners (cantons and municipalities) perspective. We find that electricity market price developments dominate the water fees in most cases, but for a range of electricity prices between 40 and 60 CHF/MWh water fees can make a difference. However, there is a larger variability between plants than between market scenarios, i.e., in every scenario, we find plants that make profits and others that make losses. We also show that a uniform water fee favors storage/pump-storage plants, whereas a differentiation of the water fee level by plant type favors run-of-river units

The Future of Swiss Hydropower A Review on Drivers and Uncertainties

Swiss Hydropower (HP) is currently facing a wide range of challenges that have initiated a debate about future prospects and its role within the envisioned energy transition. Building on this debate, this paper provides an overview of the status and prospects of Swiss HP by identifying and evaluating the different drivers and uncertainties that Swiss HP faces. Based on a review and the perceptions held by some of the main Swiss HP stakeholders the two main topics that need to be addressed are the market driven impacts and the political, legal and social aspects. While the market dynamics cannot directly be influenced by Swiss companies or authorities, the regulatory framework can and needs to be adjusted. However, this requires a comprehensive stakeholder process and is at least a medium-term process

Optimized market value of alpine solar photovoltaic installations

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is the most rapidly expanding renewable resource worldwide. Yet, its full potential may be hindered by mismatches with market demand and correlated production profiles. In this research, we explore a case study of innovative PV placements in alpine regions using two, soft-linked optimization models of Switzerland's electricity system. Using Swissmod, an electricity dispatch and load-flow model, and OREES, an electricity system model employing evolution strategy to optimize PV placement, we simulate market prices of optimized PV placements given multiple years of weather data, various CO2 prices, and considering future electricity infrastructure developments across Europe. Mountain placements result in higher market value and less required area relative to lower-altitude PV placement strategies. The higher market value is driven by better alignment with demand, particularly during winter when demand is highest. We found that optimized alpine placements offer revenues of panel capacity (EUR/kW/year) that are on average 20% higher than revenues from urban PV installations. Furthermore, the Swiss mountains could host more than 1 GW of capacity with even greater revenues (33%). Alpine PV installations, with their higher market values and increased value factors, can potentially be very profitable investments and are also valuable from a system perspective

The Future of Swiss Hydropower Realities, Options and Open Questions

The NRP70 project 'The Future of Swiss Hydropower: An Integrated Economic Assessment of Chances, Threats and Solutions' (HP Future) has been initiated in 2014 with the objective to identify options for Swiss hydropower (HP) to adopt to the ongoing and expected electricity system changes. The project has been finalized in 2018 and this final report provides an overview of the obtained results and insights. Following a short summary of the main findings is provided