Regulation strength and technology creep play key roles in global long-term projections of wild capture fisheries

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MIdentificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601) - BIGSEA projectMany studies have shown that the global fish catch can only be sustained with effective regulation that restrains overfishing. However, the persistence of weak or ineffective regulation in many parts of the world, coupled with changing technologies and additional stressors like climate change, renders the future of global catches uncertain. Here, we use a spatially resolved, bio-economic size-spectrum model to shed light on the interactive impacts of three globally important drivers over multidecadal timescales: imperfect regulation, technology-driven catchability increase, and climate change. We implement regulation as the adjustment of fishing towards a target level with some degree of effectiveness and project a range of possible trajectories for global fisheries. We find that if technological progress continues apace, increasingly effective regulation is required to prevent overfishing, akin to a Red Queen race. Climate change reduces the possible upper bound for global catches, but its economic impacts can be offset by strong regulation. Ominously, technological progress under weak regulation masks a progressive erosion of fish biomass by boosting profits and generating a temporary stabilization of global catches. Our study illustrates the large degree to which the long-term outlook of global fisheries can be improved by continually strengthening fisheries regulation, despite the negative impacts of climate change

Probing neutrino decays with the cosmic microwave background

We investigate in detail the possibility of constraining neutrino decays with data from the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR). Two generic decays are considered \nu_H -> \nu_L \phi and \nu_H -> \nu_L \nu_L_bar \nu_L. We have solved the momentum dependent Boltzmann equation in order to account for possible relativistic decays. Doing this we estimate that any neutrino with mass m > 1 eV decaying before the present should be detectable with future CMBR data. Combining this result with other results on stable neutrinos, any neutrino mass of the order 1 eV should be detectable.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and Lepton Number Asymmetry in the Universe

Recently it is reported that there is the discrepancy between big bang nucleosynthesis theory and observations (BBN crisis). We show that BBN predictions agree with the primordial abundances of light elements, He4, D, He3 and Li7 inferred from the observational data if an electron neutrino has a net chemical potential xi_{nu_e} due to lepton asymmetry. We estimate that xi_{nu_e} = 0.043^{+0.040}_{-0.040} (95% C.L.) and Omega_bh^2 = 0.015^{+0.006}_{-0.003} (95% C.L.).Comment: 10 pages, using AAS LATEX and three postscript figure

Primordial black hole constraints in cosmologies with early matter domination

Moduli fields, a natural prediction of any supergravity and superstring-inspired supersymmetry theory, may lead to a prolonged period of matter domination in the early Universe. This can be observationally viable provided the moduli decay early enough to avoid harming nucleosynthesis. If primordial black holes form, they would be expected to do so before or during this matter dominated era. We examine the extent to which the standard primordial black hole constraints are weakened in such a cosmology. Permitted mass fractions of black holes at formation are of order $10^{-8}$, rather than the usual $10^{-20}$ or so. If the black holes form from density perturbations with a power-law spectrum, its spectral index is limited to $n \lesssim 1.3$, rather than the $n \lesssim 1.25$ obtained in the standard cosmology.Comment: 7 pages RevTeX file with four figures incorporated (uses RevTeX and epsf). Also available by e-mailing ARL, or by WWW at http://star-www.maps.susx.ac.uk/papers/infcos_papers.htm

Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US–Russia war under business-as-usual fishing—similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MIdentificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601) - BIGSEA projectNuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management

Determinants of Restaurant Systematic Risk: A Reexamination

This study reexamines determinants of the systematic risk or beta of restaurant firms based on the financial data of 75 U.S. restaurant firms from 1996 through 1999. Our weighted least-squares regression analysis found that restaurant systematic risk correlated negatively with assets turnover but positively with quick ratio. The findings suggest that high efficiency in generating sales revenue helps lower the systematic risk, while excess liquidity tends to increase the risk

The fundamental constants and their variation: observational status and theoretical motivations

This article describes the various experimental bounds on the variation of the fundamental constants of nature. After a discussion on the role of fundamental constants, of their definition and link with metrology, the various constraints on the variation of the fine structure constant, the gravitational, weak and strong interactions couplings and the electron to proton mass ratio are reviewed. This review aims (1) to provide the basics of each measurement, (2) to show as clearly as possible why it constrains a given constant and (3) to point out the underlying hypotheses. Such an investigation is of importance to compare the different results, particularly in view of understanding the recent claims of the detections of a variation of the fine structure constant and of the electron to proton mass ratio in quasar absorption spectra. The theoretical models leading to the prediction of such variation are also reviewed, including Kaluza-Klein theories, string theories and other alternative theories and cosmological implications of these results are discussed. The links with the tests of general relativity are emphasized.Comment: 56 pages, l7 figures, submitted to Rev. Mod. Phy