Solving the Bargaining Problem

The bargainingproblem is here conceived as determining a point of final agreement in bilateral bargaining situations where there is an overlap in the interests of the parties. Several formal models for describing how persons may solve the bargaining problem (in particular, those of Nash, Kalai and Smorodinsky, and Felsenthal and Diskin) are briefly reviewed, and three experiments are described which seek a comparative test of these models. Experimental results fail to provide clear support for any of these formal models, but they do lead to a more generaldescription of how bargainers tend to arrive at cooperative agreements. This is expressed in terms of the three central considerations of (1) prominence, (2) social efficiency, and (3) equity

Measuring implementation strength: lessons from the evaluation of public health strategies in low- and middle-income settings.

Evaluation of strategies to ensure evidence-based, low-cost interventions reach those in need is critical. One approach is to measure the strength, or intensity, with which packages of interventions are delivered, in order to explore the association between implementation strength and public health gains. A recent systematic review suggested methodological guidance was needed. We described the approaches used in three examples of measures of implementation strength in evaluation. These addressed important public health topics with a substantial disease burden in low-and middle-income countries; they involved large-scale implementation; and featured evaluation designs without comparison areas. Strengths and weaknesses of the approaches were discussed. In the evaluation of Ethiopia's Health Extension Programme, implementation strength scoring for each kebele (ward) was based on aggregated data from interviews with mothers of children aged 12-23 months, reflecting their reports of contact with four elements of the programme. An evaluation of the Avahan HIV prevention programme in India used the cumulative amount of Avahan funding per HIV-infected person spent each year in each district. In these cases, a single measure was developed and the association with hypothesised programme outcomes presented. In the evaluation of the Affordable Medicines Facility-malaria, several implementation strength measures were developed based on the duration of activity of the programme and the level of implementation of supporting interventions. Measuring the strength of programme implementation and assessing its association with outcomes is a promising approach to strengthen pragmatic impact evaluation. Five key aspects of developing an implementation strength measure are to: (a) develop a logic model; (b) identify aspects of implementation to be assessed; (c) design and implement data collection from a range of data sources; (d) decide whether and how to combine data into a single measure; and, (e) plan whether and how to use the measure(s) in outcome analysis

Defining childhood severe falciparum malaria for intervention studies.

Background Clinical trials of interventions designed to prevent severe falciparum malaria in children require a clear endpoint. The internationally accepted definition of severe malaria is sensitive, and appropriate for clinical purposes. However, this definition includes individuals with severe nonmalarial disease and coincident parasitaemia, so may lack specificity in vaccine trials. Although there is no “gold standard” individual test for severe malaria, malaria-attributable fractions (MAFs) can be estimated among groups of children using a logistic model, which we use to test the suitability of various case definitions as trial endpoints. Methods and Findings A total of 4,583 blood samples were taken from well children in cross-sectional surveys and from 1,361 children admitted to a Kenyan District hospital with severe disease. Among children under 2 y old with severe disease and over 2,500 parasites per microliter of blood, the MAFs were above 85% in moderate- and low-transmission areas, but only 61% in a high-transmission area. HIV and malnutrition were not associated with reduced MAFs, but gastroenteritis with severe dehydration (defined by reduced skin turgor), lower respiratory tract infection (clinician's final diagnosis), meningitis (on cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] examination), and bacteraemia were associated with reduced MAFs. The overall MAF was 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83.8%–86.1%) without excluding these conditions, 89% (95% CI 88.4%–90.2%) after exclusions, and 95% (95% CI 94.0%–95.5%) when a threshold of 2,500 parasites/μl was also applied. Applying a threshold and exclusion criteria reduced sensitivity to 80% (95% CI 77%–83%). Conclusions The specificity of a case definition for severe malaria is improved by applying a parasite density threshold and by excluding children with meningitis, lower respiratory tract infection (clinician's diagnosis), bacteraemia, and gastroenteritis with severe dehydration, but not by excluding children with HIV or malnutrition

Presumptive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine versus weekly chloroquine for malaria prophylaxis in children with sickle cell anaemia in Uganda: a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria carries high case fatality among children with sickle cell anaemia. In Uganda, chloroquine is used for prophylaxis in these children despite unacceptably high levels of resistance. Intermittent presumptive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) has shown great potential for reducing prevalence of malaria and anaemia among pregnant women and infants.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To compare the efficacy of monthly SP presumptive treatment, versus weekly chloroquine for malaria prophylaxis in children attending the Sickle Cell Clinic, Mulago Hospital.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two hundred and forty two children with sickle cell anaemia were randomized to presumptive treatment with SP or weekly chloroquine for malaria prophylaxis. Active detection of malaria was made at each weekly visit to the clinic over one month. The primary outcome measure was the proportion of children with one malaria episode at one month follow-up. The secondary outcome measures included malaria-related admissions and adverse effects of the drugs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ninety-three percent (114/122) of the children in the chloroquine group and 94% (113/120) in the SP group completed one month follow up. SP reduced prevalence of malaria by 50% compared to chloroquine [OR = 0.50, (95% CI 0.26-0.97)]; p = 0.042. Six percent (7/122) of the children receiving weekly chloroquine had malaria related admissions compared to 2.5% (3/120) on presumptive treatment with SP. No serious drug effects were reported in both treatment groups</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Presumptive treatment with SP was more efficacious than weekly chloroquine in reducing prevalence of malaria in children with sickle cell anaemia. Continued use of chloroquine for malaria chemoprophylaxis in children with sickle cell anaemia in Uganda does not seem to be justified.</p> <p>Clinical Trials Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCTOO124267</p

Intermittent Preventive Treatment to Reduce the Burden of Malaria in Children: New Evidence on Integration and Delivery

James Beeson and colleagues discuss three new studies in PLoS Medicine that provide valuable evidence on how to delivery and integrate intermittent preventive reatment for malaria in children (IPTc)

Measuring newborn foot length to identify small babies in need of extra care: a cross sectional hospital based study with community follow-up in Tanzania

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Neonatal mortality because of low birth weight or prematurity remains high in many developing country settings. This research aimed to estimate the sensitivity and specificity, and the positive and negative predictive values of newborn foot length to identify babies who are low birth weight or premature and in need of extra care in a rural African setting.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud A cross-sectional study of newborn babies in hospital, with community follow-up on the fifth day of life, was carried out between 13 July and 16 October 2009 in southern Tanzania. Foot length, birth weight and gestational age were estimated on the first day and foot length remeasured on the fifth day of life.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud In hospital 529 babies were recruited and measured within 24 hours of birth, 183 of whom were also followed-up at home on the fifth day. Day one foot length <7 cm at birth was 75% sensitive (95%CI 36-100) and 99% specific (95%CI 97-99) to identify very small babies (birth weight <1500 grams); foot length <8 cm had sensitivity and specificity of 87% (95%CI 79-94) and 60% (95%CI 55-64) to identify those with low birth weight (<2500 grams), and 93% (95%CI 82-99) and 58% (95%CI 53-62) to identify those born premature (<37 weeks). Mean foot length on the first day was 7.8 cm (standard deviation 0.47); the mean difference between first and fifth day foot lengths was 0.1 cm (standard deviation 0.3): foot length measured on or before the fifth day of life identified more than three-quarters of babies who were born low birth weight.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud Measurement of newborn foot length for home births in resource poor settings has the potential to be used by birth attendants, community volunteers or parents as a screening tool to identify low birth weight or premature newborns in order that they can receive targeted interventions for improved survival

Seasonal Intermittent Preventive Treatment for the Prevention of Anaemia and Malaria in Ghanaian Children: A Randomized, Placebo Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Malaria and anaemia are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in children in sub-Saharan Africa. We have investigated the effect of intermittent preventive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine or artesunate plus amodiaquine on anaemia and malaria in children in an area of intense, prolonged, seasonal malaria transmission in Ghana. METHODS: 2451 children aged 3-59 months from 30 villages were individually randomised to receive placebo or artesunate plus amodiaquine (AS+AQ) monthly or bimonthly, or sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) bimonthly over a period of six months. The primary outcome measures were episodes of anaemia (Hb1 year old when they received IPTc compared to the placebo group. However the incidence of malaria in the post intervention period was higher in children who were <1 year old when they received AS+AQ monthly compared to the placebo group. INTERPRETATION: IPTc is safe and efficacious in reducing the burden of malaria in an area of Ghana with a prolonged, intense malaria transmission season. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00119132

An X chromosome-wide association study in autism families identifies TBL1X as a novel autism spectrum disorder candidate gene in males

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder with a strong genetic component. The skewed prevalence toward males and evidence suggestive of linkage to the X chromosome in some studies suggest the presence of X-linked susceptibility genes in people with ASD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed genome-wide association study (GWAS) data on the X chromosome in three independent autism GWAS data sets: two family data sets and one case-control data set. We performed meta- and joint analyses on the combined family and case-control data sets. In addition to the meta- and joint analyses, we performed replication analysis by using the two family data sets as a discovery data set and the case-control data set as a validation data set.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One SNP, rs17321050, in the transducin β-like 1X-linked (<it>TBL1X</it>) gene [OMIM:300196] showed chromosome-wide significance in the meta-analysis (<it>P </it>value = 4.86 × 10^-6) and joint analysis (<it>P </it>value = 4.53 × 10^-6) in males. The SNP was also close to the replication threshold of 0.0025 in the discovery data set (<it>P </it>= 5.89 × 10^-3) and passed the replication threshold in the validation data set (<it>P </it>= 2.56 × 10^-4). Two other SNPs in the same gene in linkage disequilibrium with rs17321050 also showed significance close to the chromosome-wide threshold in the meta-analysis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>TBL1X </it>is in the Wnt signaling pathway, which has previously been implicated as having a role in autism. Deletions in the Xp22.2 to Xp22.3 region containing <it>TBL1X </it>and surrounding genes are associated with several genetic syndromes that include intellectual disability and autistic features. Our results, based on meta-analysis, joint analysis and replication analysis, suggest that <it>TBL1X </it>may play a role in ASD risk.</p

How Mistimed and Unwanted Pregnancies Affect Timing of Antenatal Care Initiation in three Districts in Tanzania

Early antenatal care (ANC) initiation is a doorway to early detection and management of potential complications associated with pregnancy. Although the literature reports various factors associated with ANC initiation such as parity and age, pregnancy intentions is yet to be recognized as a possible predictor of timing of ANC initiation. Data originate from a cross-sectional household survey on health behaviour and service utilization patterns. The survey was conducted in 2011 in Rufiji, Kilombero and Ulanga districts in Tanzania on 910 women of reproductive age who had given birth in the past two years. ANC initiation was considered to be early only if it occurred in the first trimester of pregnancy gestation. A recently completed pregnancy was defined as mistimed if a woman wanted it later, and if she did not want it at all the pregnancy was termed as unwanted. Chisquare was used to test for associations and multinomial logistic regression was conducted to examine how mistimed and unwanted pregnancies affect timing of ANC initiation. Although 49.3% of the women intended to become pregnant, 50.7% (34.9% mistimed and 15.8% unwanted) became pregnant unintentionally. While ANC initiation in the 1st trimester was 18.5%, so was 71.7% and 9.9% in the 2nd and 3rd trimesters respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that ANC initiation in the 2nd trimester was 1.68 (95% CI 1.10‒2.58) and 2.00 (95% CI 1.05‒3.82) times more likely for mistimed and unwanted pregnancies respectively compared to intended pregnancies. These estimates rose to 2.81 (95% CI 1.41‒5.59) and 4.10 (95% CI 1.68‒10.00) respectively in the 3rd trimester. We controlled for gravidity, age, education, household wealth, marital status, religion, district of residence and travel time to a health facility. Late ANC initiation is a significant maternal and child health consequence of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies in Tanzania. Women should be empowered to delay or avoid pregnancies whenever they need to do so. Appropriate counseling to women, especially those who happen to conceive unintentionally is needed to minimize the possibility of delaying ANC initiation.\u