Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling

AbstractThis work presents the results of the implementation of a probabilistic system to model the uncertainty associated to radar rainfall (RR) estimates and the way this uncertainty propagates through the sewer system of an urban area located in the North of England. The spatial and temporal correlations of the RR errors as well as the error covariance matrix were computed to build a RR error model able to generate RR ensembles that reproduce the uncertainty associated with the measured rainfall. The results showed that the RR ensembles provide important information about the uncertainty in the rainfall measurement that can be propagated in the urban sewer system. The results showed that the measured flow peaks and flow volumes are often bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the RR ensembles. In 55% of the simulated events, the uncertainties in RR measurements can explain the uncertainties observed in the simulated flow volumes. However, there are also some events where the RR uncertainty cannot explain the whole uncertainty observed in the simulated flow volumes indicating that there are additional sources of uncertainty that must be considered such as the uncertainty in the urban drainage model structure, the uncertainty in the urban drainage model calibrated parameters, and the uncertainty in the measured sewer flows

Improving rainfall nowcasting and urban runoff forecasting through dynamic radar-raingauge rainfall adjustment

The insufficient accuracy of radar rainfall estimates is a major source of uncertainty in short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and associated urban flood forecasts. This study looks at the possibility of improving QPFs and urban runoff forecasts through the dynamic adjustment of radar rainfall estimates based on raingauge measurements. Two commonly used techniques (Kriging with External Drift (KED) and mean field bias correction) were used to adjust radar rainfall estimates for a large area of the UK (250,000 km2) based on raingauge data. QPFs were produced using original radar and adjusted rainfall estimates as input to a nowcasting algorithm. Runoff forecasts were generated by feeding the different QPFs into the storm water drainage model of an urban catchment in London. The performance of the adjusted precipitation estimates and the associated forecasts was tested using local rainfall and flow records. The results show that adjustments done at too large scales cannot provide tangible improvements in rainfall estimates and associated QPFs and runoff forecasts at small scales, such as those of urban catchments. Moreover, the results suggest that the KED adjusted rainfall estimates may be unsuitable for generating QPFs, as this method damages the continuity of spatial structures between consecutive rainfall fields

Influence of cratonic lithosphere on the formation and evolution of flat slabs : insights from 3-D time-dependent modeling.

Several mechanisms have been suggested for the formation of flat slabs including buoyant features on the subducting plate, trenchward motion and thermal or cratonic structure of the overriding plate. Analysis of episodes of flat subduction indicate that not all flat slabs can be attributed to only one of these mechanisms and it is likely that multiple mechanisms work together to create the necessary conditions for flat slab subduction. In this study we examine the role of localized regions of cratonic lithosphere in the overriding plate in the formation and evolution of flat slabs. We explicitly build on previous models, by using time-dependent simulations with three-dimensional variation in overriding plate structure. We find that there are two modes of flat subduction: permanent underplating occurs when the slab is more buoyant (shorter or younger), while transient flattening occurs when there is more negative buoyancy (longer or older slabs). Our models show how regions of the slab adjacent to the subcratonic flat portion continue to pull the slab into the mantle leading to highly contorted slab shapes with apparent slab gaps beneath the craton. These results show how the interpretation of seismic images of subduction zones can be complicated by the occurrence of either permanent or transient flattening of the slab, and how the signature of a recent flat slab episode may persist as the slab resumes normal subduction. Our models suggest that permanent underplating of slabs may preferentially occur below thick and cold lithosphere providing a built-in mechanism for regeneration of cratons

High resolution rainfall measurement and analysis in a small urban catchment

Rainfall data from operational radar or rain gauge networks is generally not available at a resolution smaller than 1km 2 . Due to short lead times and high percentage of impervious area, the spatial variability of rainfall becomes important when simulating flow and runoff in smaller urban catchments. In the UK there is a growing interest in modelling rainfall runoff and flooding processes at scales much smaller then 1km 2 . As high density rainfall data are scarce, statistical downscaling techniques are sometimes used to spatially downscale radar or rain gauge data, in order to include the effects of small scale rainfall variability. These downscaling techniques are, however, generally not verified against high resolution rainfall data measured on the ground. This paper describes a study where operational UK radar data has been downscaled to areas between 10 and 100 m, and compared with data from a network of 16 tipping bucket raingauges located in an urban area < 1km 2