A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time series possessing all the stylized facts of empirical prices, as well as accelerated speculative bubbles preceding crashes. We use the formula to invert the two years of price history prior to the recent crash on the Nasdaq (april 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market associated with the Asian crisis in early 1994. These complex price dynamics are captured using only one exponent controlling the explosion, the variance and mean of the underlying random walk. This offers a new and powerful detection tool of speculative bubbles and herding behavior.Comment: Latex document of 24 pages including 5 eps figure

Study protocol: The Improving Care of Acute Lung Injury Patients (ICAP) study

INTRODUCTION: The short-term mortality benefit of lower tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) for patients with acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ALI/ARDS) has been demonstrated in a large, multi-center randomized trial. However, the impact of LTVV and other critical care therapies on the longer-term outcomes of ALI/ARDS survivors remains uncertain. The Improving Care of ALI Patients (ICAP) study is a multi-site, prospective cohort study that aims to evaluate the longer-term outcomes of ALI/ARDS survivors with a particular focus on the effect of LTVV and other critical care therapies. METHODS: Consecutive mechanically ventilated ALI/ARDS patients from 11 intensive care units (ICUs) at four hospitals in the city of Baltimore, MD, USA, will be enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Exposures (patient-based, clinical management, and ICU organizational) will be comprehensively collected both at baseline and throughout patients' ICU stay. Outcomes, including mortality, organ impairment, functional status, and quality of life, will be assessed with the use of standardized surveys and testing at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after ALI/ARDS diagnosis. A multi-faceted retention strategy will be used to minimize participant loss to follow-up. RESULTS: On the basis of the historical incidence of ALI/ARDS at the study sites, we expect to enroll 520 patients over two years. This projected sample size is more than double that of any published study of long-term outcomes in ALI/ARDS survivors, providing 86% power to detect a relative mortality hazard of 0.70 in patients receiving higher versus lower exposure to LTVV. The projected sample size also provides sufficient power to evaluate the association between a variety of other exposure and outcome variables, including quality of life. CONCLUSION: The ICAP study is a novel, prospective cohort study that will build on previous critical care research to improve our understanding of the longer-term impact of ALI/ARDS, LTVV and other aspects of critical care management. Given the paucity of information about the impact of interventions on long-term outcomes for survivors of critical illness, this study can provide important information to inform clinical practice

Perspectives on the Trypanosoma cruzi-host cell receptor interaction

Chagas disease is caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi. The critical initial event is the interaction of the trypomastigote form of the parasite with host receptors. This review highlights recent observations concerning these interactions. Some of the key receptors considered are those for thromboxane, bradykinin, and for the nerve growth factor TrKA. Other important receptors such as galectin-3, thrombospondin, and laminin are also discussed. Investigation into the molecular biology and cell biology of host receptors for T. cruzi may provide novel therapeutic targets

Cytokine Production but Lack of Proliferation in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells from Chronic Chagas' Disease Cardiomyopathy Patients in Response to T. cruzi Ribosomal P Proteins

Background:Trypanosoma cruzi ribosomal P proteins, P2β and P0, induce high levels of antibodies in patients with chronic Chagas' disease Cardiomyopathy (CCC). It is well known that these antibodies alter the beating rate of cardiomyocytes and provoke apoptosis by their interaction with β1-adrenergic and M2-muscarinic cardiac receptors. Based on these findings, we decided to study the cellular immune response to these proteins in CCC patients compared to non-infected individuals.Methodology/Principal findings:We evaluated proliferation, presence of surface activation markers and cytokine production in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) stimulated with P2β, the C-terminal portion of P0 (CP0) proteins and T. cruzi lysate from CCC patients predominantly infected with TcVI lineage. PBMC from CCC patients cultured with P2β or CP0 proteins, failed to proliferate and express CD25 and HLA-DR on T cell populations. However, multiplex cytokine assays showed that these antigens triggered higher secretion of IL-10, TNF-α and GM-CSF by PBMC as well as both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells subsets of CCC subjects. Upon T. cruzi lysate stimulation, PBMC from CCC patients not only proliferated but also became activated within the context of Th1 response. Interestingly, T. cruzi lysate was also able to induce the secretion of GM-CSF by CD4+ or CD8+ T cells.Conclusions/Significance:Our results showed that although the lack of PBMC proliferation in CCC patients in response to ribosomal P proteins, the detection of IL-10, TNF-α and GM-CSF suggests that specific T cells could have both immunoregulatory and pro-inflammatory potential, which might modulate the immune response in Chagas' disease. Furthermore, it was possible to demonstrate for the first time that GM-CSF was produced by PBMC of CCC patients in response not only to recombinant ribosomal P proteins but also to parasite lysate, suggesting the value of this cytokine to evaluate T cells responses in T. cruzi infection.Fil: Longhi, Silvia Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ingeniería Genética y Biología Molecular "Dr. Héctor N. Torres"; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica; ArgentinaFil: Atienza, Augusto. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos "Ramos Mejía"; ArgentinaFil: Perez Prados, Graciela. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos "Juan A. Fernández"; ArgentinaFil: Buying, Alcinette. Torrey Pines Institute for Molecular Studies; Estados UnidosFil: Balouz, Virginia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Buscaglia, Carlos Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Investigaciones Biotecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Santos, Radleigh. Torrey Pines Institute for Molecular Studies; Estados UnidosFil: Tasso, Laura Mónica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ingeniería Genética y Biología Molecular "Dr. Héctor N. Torres"; ArgentinaFil: Bonato, Ricardo. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos "Ramos Mejía"; ArgentinaFil: Chiale, Pablo. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos "Ramos Mejía"; ArgentinaFil: Pinilla, Clemencia. Torrey Pines Institute for Molecular Studies; Estados UnidosFil: Judkowski, Valeria A.. Torrey Pines Institute for Molecular Studies; Estados UnidosFil: Gomez, Karina Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Investigaciones en Ingeniería Genética y Biología Molecular "Dr. Héctor N. Torres"; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica; Argentin