Estimating Sensitivity of Laboratory Testing for Influenza in Canada through Modelling

Background: The weekly proportion of laboratory tests that are positive for influenza is used in public health surveillance systems to identify periods of influenza activity. We aimed to estimate the sensitivity of influenza testing in Canada based on results of a national respiratory virus surveillance system. Methods and Findings: The weekly number of influenza-negative tests from 1999 to 2006 was modelled as a function of laboratory-confirmed positive tests for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus and parainfluenza viruses, seasonality, and trend using Poisson regression. Sensitivity was calculated as the number of influenza positive tests divided by the number of influenza positive tests plus the model-estimated number of false negative tests. The sensitivity of influenza testing was estimated to be 33 % (95%CI 32–34%), varying from 30–40 % depending on the season and region. Conclusions: The estimated sensitivity of influenza tests reported to this national laboratory surveillance system is considerably less than reported test characteristics for most laboratory tests. A number of factors may explain this difference, including sample quality and specimen procurement issues as well as test characteristics. Improved diagnosis would permit better estimation of the burden of influenza

Growing impact of restenosis on the surgical treatment of peripheral arterial disease

BACKGROUND: Patients with peripheral arterial disease often experience treatment failure from restenosis at the site of a prior peripheral endovascular intervention (PVI) or lower extremity bypass (LEB). The impact of these treatment failures on the utilization and outcomes of secondary interventions is poorly understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: In our regional vascular quality improvement collaborative, we compared 2350 patients undergoing primary infrainguinal LEB with 1154 patients undergoing secondary infrainguinal LEB (LEB performed after previous revascularization in the index limb) between 2003 and 2011. The proportion of patients undergoing secondary LEB increased by 72% during the study period (22% of all LEBs in 2003 to 38% in 2011, P\u3c0.001). In-hospital outcomes, such as myocardial infarction, death, and amputation, were similar between primary and secondary LEB groups. However, in both crude and propensity-weighted analyses, secondary LEB was associated with significantly inferior 1-year outcomes, including major adverse limb event-free survival (composite of death, new bypass graft, surgical bypass graft revision, thrombectomy/thrombolysis, or above-ankle amputation; Secondary LEB MALE-free survival = 61.6% vs primary LEB MALE-free survival = 67.5%, P=0.002) and reintervention or amputation-free survival (composite of death, reintervention, or above-ankle amputation; Secondary LEB RAO-free survival = 58.9% vs Primary LEB RAO-free survival 64.1%, P=0.003). Inferior outcomes for secondary LEB were observed regardless of the prior failed treatment type (PVI or LEB). CONCLUSIONS: In an era of increasing utilization of PVI, a growing proportion of patients undergo LEB in the setting of a prior failed PVI or surgical bypass. When caring for patients with peripheral arterial disease, physicians should recognize that first treatment failure (PVI or LEB) affects the success of subsequent revascularizations

Bad faith in All’s Well That Ends Well

All’s Well That Ends Well is a complicated and disturbing play that has a comic ending, but which seems anything but a comedy with a forced marriage based on bed-trickery between the reluctant Bertram and the feisty and witty Helena. Unsurprisingly, audiences have tended to side with Helena and the play has been classified as a “problem comedy” ever since William Lawrence identified this particular group of Shakespeare plays nearly a century ago. I want to argue in this essay that the play might better be classified as an “equivocation” play alongside Macbeth, Othello, and Troilus and Cressida and that the anxieties about fidelity, honesty and truthfulness in marriage need to be read in terms of the fear of religious tolerance/intolerance which dominated religious politics in the early years of James’s reign before the passing of the Oath of Allegiance (1606). The play is notable for its interest in chop logic, which the clown in particular displays throughout the play, a counterpoint to the arguments of Bertram and Helena who want very different things, but who are bound together as future husband and wife. Although the language of treason and treachery is used throughout, the play is less interested in answering the question of how far one can trust a stranger within than the issue of how far one can accommodate the needs of others. This article is published as part of a collection to commemorate the 400th anniversary of William Shakespeare’s death

The role of amputation as an outcome measure in cellular therapy for critical limb ischemia: implications for clinical trial design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Autologous bone marrow-derived stem cells have been ascribed an important therapeutic role in No-Option Critical limb Ischemia (NO-CLI). One primary endpoint for evaluating NO-CLI therapy is major amputation (AMP), which is usually combined with mortality for AMP-free survival (AFS). Only a trial which is double blinded can eliminate physician and patient bias as to the timing and reason for AMP. We examined factors influencing AMP in a prospective double-blinded pilot RCT (2:1 therapy to control) of 48 patients treated with site of service obtained bone marrow cells (BMAC) as well as a systematic review of the literature.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cells were injected intramuscularly in the CLI limbs as either BMAC or placebo (peripheral blood). Six month AMP rates were compared between the two arms. Both patient and treating team were blinded of the assignment in follow-up examinations. A search of the literature identified 9 NO-CLI trials, the control arms of which were used to determine 6 month AMP rates and the influence of tissue loss.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fifteen amputations occurred during the 6 month period, 86.7% of these during the first 4 months. One amputation occurred in a Rutherford 4 patient. The difference in amputation rate between patients with rest pain (5.6%) and those with tissue loss (46.7%), irrespective of treatment group, was significant (p = 0.0029). In patients with tissue loss, treatment with BMAC demonstrated a lower amputation rate than placebo (39.1% vs. 71.4%, p = 0.1337). The Kaplan-Meier time to amputation was longer in the BMAC group than in the placebo group (p = 0.067). Projecting these results to a pivotal trial, a bootstrap simulation model showed significant difference in AFS between BMAC and placebo with a power of 95% for a sample size of 210 patients. Meta-analysis of the literature confirmed a difference in amputation rate between patients with tissue loss and rest pain.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>BMAC shows promise in improving AMP-free survival if the trends in this pilot study are validated in a larger pivotal trial. The difference in amp rate between Rutherford 4 & 5 patients suggests that these patients should be stratified in future RCTs.</p

Epidemiology of influenza-associated hospitalization in adults, Toronto, 2007/8

The purpose of this investigation was to identify when diagnostic testing and empirical antiviral therapy should be considered for adult patients requiring hospitalization during influenza seasons. During the 2007/8 influenza season, six acute care hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area participated in active surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza requiring hospitalization. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory or cardiac illness, or with febrile illness without clear non-respiratory etiology. Predictors of influenza were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression analysis and likelihoods of influenza infection in various patient groups were calculated. Two hundred and eighty of 3,917 patients were found to have influenza. Thirty-five percent of patients with influenza presented with a triage temperature ≥38.0°C, 80% had respiratory symptoms in the emergency department, and 76% were ≥65 years old. Multivariable analysis revealed a triage temperature ≥38.0°C (odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3–4.1), the presence of respiratory symptoms (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2–2.4), admission diagnosis of respiratory infection (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3–2.4), admission diagnosis of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma or respiratory failure (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.6–3.4), and admission in peak influenza weeks (OR 4.2; 95% CI 3.1–5.7) as independent predictors of influenza. The likelihood of influenza exceeded 15% in patients with respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma if the triage temperature was ≥38.0°C or if they were admitted in the peak weeks during the influenza season. During influenza season, diagnostic testing and empiric antiviral therapy should be considered in patients requiring hospitalization if respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma are suspected and if either the triage temperature is ≥38.0°C or admission is during the weeks of peak influenza activity

Comparison of single- and multistage strategies during fenestrated-branched endovascular aortic repair of thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare outcomes of single or multistage approach during fenestrated-branched endovascular aortic repair (FB-EVAR) of extensive thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAAs). Methods: We reviewed the clinical data of consecutive patients treated by FB-EVAR for extent I to III TAAAs in 24 centers (2006-2021). All patients received a single brand manufactured patient-specific or off-the-shelf fenestrated-branched stent grafts. Staging strategies included proximal thoracic aortic repair, minimally invasive segmental artery coil embolization, temporary aneurysm sac perfusion and combinations of these techniques. Endpoints were analyzed for elective repair in patients who had a single- or multistage approach before and after propensity score adjustment for baseline differences, including the composite 30-day/in-hospital mortality and/or permanent paraplegia, major adverse event, patient survival, and freedom from aortic-related mortality. Results: A total of 1947 patients (65% male; mean age, 71 ± 8 years) underwent FB-EVAR of 155 extent I (10%), 729 extent II (46%), and 713 extent III TAAAs (44%). A single-stage approach was used in 939 patients (48%) and a multistage approach in 1008 patients (52%). A multistage approach was more frequently used in patients undergoing elective compared with non-elective repair (55% vs 35%; P < .001). Staging strategies were proximal thoracic aortic repair in 743 patients (74%), temporary aneurysm sac perfusion in 128 (13%), minimally invasive segmental artery coil embolization in 10 (1%), and combinations in 127 (12%). Among patients undergoing elective repair (n = 1597), the composite endpoint of 30-day/in-hospital mortality and/or permanent paraplegia rate occurred in 14% of single-stage and 6% of multistage approach patients (P < .001). After adjustment with a propensity score, multistage approach was associated with lower rates of 30-day/in-hospital mortality and/or permanent paraplegia (odds ratio, 0.466; 95% confidence interval, 0.271-0.801; P = .006) and higher patient survival at 1 year (86.9±1.3% vs 79.6±1.7%) and 3 years (72.7±2.1% vs 64.2±2.3%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.714; 95% confidence interval, 0.528-0.966; P = .029), compared with a single stage approach. Conclusions: Staging elective FB-EVAR of extent I to III TAAAs was associated with decreased risk of mortality and/or permanent paraplegia at 30 days or within hospital stay, and with higher patient survival at 1 and 3 years

Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: A survival prediction model to facilitate clinical decision making

BackgroundAn intention-to-treat analysis of the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial showed that in patients with severe lower limb ischemia (SLI) due to infrainguinal disease who survived for 2 years after intervention, initial randomization to a bypass surgery (BSX)-first vs balloon angioplasty (BAP)-first revascularization strategy was associated with improvements in subsequent overall survival (OS) and amputation-free survival (AFS) of about 7 and 6 months, respectively. This study explored the value of baseline factors to estimate the likelihood of survival to 2 years for the trial cohort (Cox model) and for individual BASIL trial patients (Weibull model) as an aid to clinical decision making.MethodsOf 452 patients presenting to 27 United Kingdom hospitals, 228 were randomly assigned to a BSX-first and 224 to a BAP-first revascularization strategy. Patients were monitored for at least 3 years. Baseline factors affecting the survival of the entire cohort were examined with a multivariate Cox model. The chances of survival at 1 and 2 years for patients with given baseline characteristics were estimated with a Weibull parametric model.ResultsAt the end of follow-up, 172 patients (38%) were alive without major limb amputation of the trial leg, and 202 (45%) were alive. Baseline factors that were significant in the Cox model were BASIL randomization stratification group, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, age, diabetes, creatinine level, and smoking status. Using these factors to define five equally sized groups, we identified patients with 2-year survival rates of 50% to 90%. The factors that contributed to the Weibull predictive model were age, presence of tissue loss, serum creatinine, number of ankle pressure measurements detectable, maximum ankle pressure measured, a history of myocardial infarction or angina, a history of stroke or transient ischemia attack, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, and smoking status.ConclusionsPatients in the BASIL trial were at high risk of amputation and death regardless of revascularization strategy. However, baseline factors can be used to stratify those risks. Furthermore, within a parametric Weibull model, certain of these factors can be used to help predict outcomes for individuals. It may thus be possible to define the clinical and anatomic (angiographic) characteristics of SLI patients who are likely—and not likely—to live for >2 years after intervention. Used appropriately in the context of the BASIL trial outcomes, this may aid clinical decision making regarding a BSX- or BAP-first revascularization strategy in SLI patients like those randomized in BASIL

Lessons from a one-year hospital-based surveillance of acute respiratory infections in Berlin- comparing case definitions to monitor influenza

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surveillance of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in sentinel hospitals is recommended to estimate the burden of severe influenza-cases. Therefore, we monitored patients admitted with respiratory infections (RI) in 9 Berlin hospitals from 7.12.2009 to 12.12.2010 according to different case definitions (CD) and determined the proportion of cases with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (pH1N1). We compared the sensitivity and specificity of CD for capturing pandemic pH1N1 cases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We established an RI-surveillance restricted to adults aged ≤ 65 years within the framework of a pH1N1 vaccine effectiveness study, which required active identification of RI-cases. The hospital information-system was screened daily for newly admitted RI-patients. Nasopharyngeal swabs from consenting patients were tested by PCR for influenza-virus subtypes. Four clinical CD were compared in terms of capturing pH1N1-positives among hospitalized RI-patients by applying sensitivity and specificity analyses. The broadest case definition (CD1) was used for inclusion of RI-cases; the narrowest case definition (CD4) was identical to the SARI case definition recommended by ECDC/WHO.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Over the study period, we identified 1,025 RI-cases, of which 283 (28%) met the ECDC/WHO SARI case definition. The percentage of SARI-cases among internal medicine admissions decreased from 3.2% (calendar-week 50-2009) to 0.2% (week 25-2010). Of 354 patients tested by PCR, 20 (6%) were pH1N1-positive. Two case definitions narrower than CD1 but -in contrast to SARI- not requiring shortness of breath yielded the largest areas under the Receiver-Operator-Curve. Heterogeneity of proportions of patients admitted with RI between hospitals was significant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Comprehensive surveillance of RI cases was feasible in a network of community hospitals. In most settings, several hospitals should be included to ensure representativeness. Although misclassification resulting from failure to obtain symptoms in the hospital information-system cannot be ruled out, a high proportion of hospitalized PCR-positive pH1N1-patients (45%) did not fulfil the SARI case-definition that included shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Thus, to assess influenza-related disease burden in hospitals, broader, alternative case definitions should be considered.</p