Simple Statistical Probabilistic Forecasts of the winter NAO

The variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key aspect of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and has a profound impact upon the weather of the surrounding landmasses. Recent success with dynamical forecasts predicting the winter NAO at lead times of a few months has the potential to deliver great socioeconomic impacts. Here, a linear regression model is found to provide skillful predictions of the winter NAO based on a limited number of statistical predictors. Identified predictors include El Niño, Arctic sea ice, Atlantic SSTs, and tropical rainfall. These statistical models can show significant skill when used to make out-of-sample forecasts, and the method is extended to produce probabilistic predictions of the winter NAO. The statistical hindcasts can achieve similar levels of skill to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast models, although out-of-sample predictions are less skillful, albeit over a small period. Forecasts over a longer out-of-sample period suggest there is true skill in the statistical models, comparable with that of dynamical forecasting models. They can be used both to help evaluate and to offer insight into the sources of predictability and limitations of dynamical models

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 40% of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Sea surface temperature (SST) forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or actual non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research

The Gediz River fluvial archive: A benchmark for Quaternary research in Western Anatolia

The Gediz River, one of the principal rivers of Western Anatolia, has an extensive Pleistocene fluvial archive that potentially offers a unique window into fluvial system behaviour on the western margins of Asia during the Quaternary. In this paper we review our work on the Quaternary Gediz River Project (2001–2010) and present new data which leads to a revised stratigraphical model for the Early Pleistocene development of this fluvial system. In previous work we confirmed the preservation of eleven buried Early Pleistocene fluvial terraces of the Gediz River (designated GT11, the oldest and highest, to GT1, the youngest and lowest) which lie beneath the basalt-covered plateaux of the Kula Volcanic Province. Deciphering the information locked in this fluvial archive requires the construction of a robust geochronology. Fortunately, the Gediz archive provides ample opportunity for age-constraint based upon age estimates derived from basaltic lava flows that repeatedly entered the palaeo-Gediz valley floors. In this paper we present, for the first time, our complete dataset of 40Ar/39Ar age estimates and associated palaeomagnetic measurements. These data, which can be directly related to the underlying fluvial deposits, provide age constraints critical to our understanding of this sequence. The new chronology establishes the onset of Quaternary volcanism at ∼1320ka (MIS42). This volcanism, which is associated with GT6, confirms a pre-MIS42 age for terraces GT11-GT7. Evidence from the colluvial sequences directly overlying these early terraces suggests that they formed in response to hydrological and sediment budget changes forced by climate-driven vegetation change. The cyclic formation of terraces and their timing suggests they represent the obliquity-driven climate changes of the Early Pleistocene. By way of contrast the GT5-GT1 terrace sequence, constrained by a lava flow with an age estimate of ∼1247ka, span the time-interval MIS42 – MIS38 and therefore do not match the frequency of climate change as previously suggested. The onset of volcanism breaks the simple linkage of terracing to climate-driven change. These younger terraces more likely reflect a localized terracing process triggered by base level changes forced by volcanic eruptions and associated reactivation of pre-existing faults, lava dam construction, landsliding and subsequent lava-dammed lake drainage. Establishing a firm stratigraphy and geochronology for the Early Pleistocene archive provides a secure framework for future exploitation of this part of the archive and sets the standard as we begin our work on the Middle-Late Pleistocene sequence. We believe this work forms a benchmark study for detailed Quaternary research in Turkey

ECONOMICS OF INVESTMENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF DIRECT REDUCED IRON IN AUSTRALIA.

The economics of the manufacture of directly reduced iron (DRI) have been examined for the Australian scene using either coal or natural gas based processes. The evaluation has shown that in the present world economic climate DRI production appears to be unattractive for feasible fuel, capital, and raw material costs in Australia. Under more favourable international DRI price circumstances, the analysis has shown that either a large conventional natural gas based process or a coal based process with waste gas energy recovery would provide the best investment opportunity of the cases studied. However, the final feasibility will depend on local circumstances and, in particular, the local raw material and energy costs for the process

The Gediz River fluvial archive

<p>The Gediz River, one of the principal rivers of Western Anatolia, has an extensive Pleistocene fluvial archive that potentially offers a unique window into fluvial system behaviour on the western margins of Asia during the Quaternary. In this paper we review our work on the Quaternary Gediz River Project (2001-2010) and present new data which leads to a revised stratigraphical model for the Early Pleistocene development of this fluvial system.In previous work we confirmed the preservation of eleven buried Early Pleistocene fluvial terraces of the Gediz River (designated GT11, the oldest and highest, to GT1, the youngest and lowest) which lie beneath the basalt-covered plateaux of the Kula Volcanic Province. Deciphering the information locked in this fluvial archive requires the construction of a robust geochronology. Fortunately, the Gediz archive provides ample opportunity for age-constraint based upon age estimates derived from basaltic lava flows that repeatedly entered the palaeo-Gediz valley floors. In this paper we present, for the first time, our complete dataset of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age estimates and associated palaeomagnetic measurements. These data, which can be directly related to the underlying fluvial deposits, provide age constraints critical to our understanding of this sequence.The new chronology establishes the onset of Quaternary volcanism at ∼1320ka (MIS42). This volcanism, which is associated with GT6, confirms a pre-MIS42 age for terraces GT11-GT7. Evidence from the colluvial sequences directly overlying these early terraces suggests that they formed in response to hydrological and sediment budget changes forced by climate-driven vegetation change. The cyclic formation of terraces and their timing suggests they represent the obliquity-driven climate changes of the Early Pleistocene. By way of contrast the GT5-GT1 terrace sequence, constrained by a lava flow with an age estimate of ∼1247ka, span the time-interval MIS42 - MIS38 and therefore do not match the frequency of climate change as previously suggested. The onset of volcanism breaks the simple linkage of terracing to climate-driven change. These younger terraces more likely reflect a localized terracing process triggered by base level changes forced by volcanic eruptions and associated reactivation of pre-existing faults, lava dam construction, landsliding and subsequent lava-dammed lake drainage.Establishing a firm stratigraphy and geochronology for the Early Pleistocene archive provides a secure framework for future exploitation of this part of the archive and sets the standard as we begin our work on the Middle-Late Pleistocene sequence. We believe this work forms a benchmark study for detailed Quaternary research in Turkey.</p

Volcanic disruption and drainage diversion of the palaeo-Hudut River, a tributary of the Early Pleistocene Gediz River, Western Turkey

The importance of extrinsic drivers of fluvial system behaviour (climate, tectonics, eustatic sea level) over Quaternary timescales is well documented. However, comparatively fewer studies have been reported concerning the significance of more localised changes at reach to sub-catchment scale, over these extended (10exp4–10exp6 years) timescales. In this paper we examine the Early Pleistocene sedimentary record of the palaeo-Hudut River and compare it with the record from the trunk river into which it drains, the Gediz River of Western Turkey. Both the Gediz River and the Hudut River were subjected to major localised disruption during the Early Pleistocene as a consequence of volcanism but their respective responses to these events appear to differ. Observations are reported from the sedimentary sequence buried beneath the lavas which cap the Burgaz plateau. These sediments record a remarkable amount of detail for a significant period of the Early Pleistocene. These suggest that the palaeo-Hudut system responded largely to the creation and failure of downstream lava dams, both through channel incision and subsequent filling, and via route diversions around lava dams and their associated lakes. In contrast, the Gediz terrace record appears to demonstrate a river which was able to accommodate these changes more readily and hence, continue to undergo sedimentation–incision cycles consistent with a climate forcing