The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at kilometre scale

A new regional coupled modelling framework is introduced – the Regional Coupled Suite (RCS). This provides a flexible research capability with which to study the interactions between atmosphere, land, ocean, and wave processes resolved at kilometre scale, and the effect of environmental feedbacks on the evolution and impacts of multi-hazard weather events. A configuration of the RCS focussed on the Indian region, termed RCS-IND1, is introduced. RCS-IND1 includes a regional configuration of the Unified Model (UM) atmosphere, directly coupled to the JULES land surface model, on a grid with horizontal spacing of 4.4 km, enabling convection to be explicitly simulated. These are coupled through OASIS3-MCT libraries to 2.2 km grid NEMO ocean and WAVEWATCH III wave model configurations. To examine a potential approach to reduce computation cost and simplify ocean initialization, the RCS includes an alternative approach to couple the atmosphere to a lower resolution Multi-Column K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) for the ocean. Through development of a flexible modelling framework, a variety of fully and partially coupled experiments can be defined, along with traceable uncoupled simulations and options to use external input forcing in place of missing coupled components. This offers a wide scope to researchers designing sensitivity and case study assessments. Case study results are presented and assessed to demonstrate the application of RCS-IND1 to simulate two tropical cyclone cases which developed in the Bay of Bengal, namely Titli in October 2018 and Fani in April 2019. Results show realistic cyclone simulations, and that coupling can improve the cyclone track and produces more realistic intensification than uncoupled simulations for Titli but prevents sufficient intensification for Fani. Atmosphere-only UM regional simulations omit the influence of frictional heating on the boundary layer to prevent cyclone over-intensification. However, it is shown that this term can improve coupled simulations, enabling a more rigorous treatment of the near-surface energy budget to be represented. For these cases, a 1D mixed layer scheme shows similar first-order SST cooling and feedback on the cyclones to a 3D ocean. Nevertheless, the 3D ocean generally shows stronger localized cooling than the 1D ocean. Coupling with the waves has limited feedback on the atmosphere for these cases. Priorities for future model development are discussed

Problematic Mesoproterozoic fossil Horodyskia from Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

String-of-beads fossils (Horodyskia moniliformis and Horodyskia williamsii) from the 1.48 Ga lower Appekunny Argillite of Glacier National Park have been re-examined, and collected from both scree, which yielded most prior specimens, as well as outcrops. The fossils come from laminated silty shales and carbonaceous-swirl shales, with local sandstone paleochannels, interpreted as a very shallow lake margin. Very weakly developed paleosols also are present, but do not contain Horodyskia, which lived in very shallow water, seldom exposed and rilled. Chemical index of alteration at horizons with Horodyskia are evidence of a warm temperate to subtropical humid paleoclimate, unlike arid and cool paleoclimates at other stratigraphic levels in the Belt Supergroup. Thin section examination reveals that the beads are associated with a system of tubes, including connecting strings, and other tubes radiating outward from each bead. Partial burial and branching of these tubes may be evidence of a benthic sessile life style. A variety of explanations for Horodyskia are falsified by our new observations: including pseudofossil, dubiofossil, prokaryotic colony, foraminifera, slime mold, puffball fungus, brown alga, sponge, hydrozoan or bryozoan colony, or metazoan fecal string. Our remaining working hypothesis is that Horodyskia beads were endolichen bladders, comparable with living Geosiphon pyriformis (Archaeosporales, Glomeromycota, Fungi), which has heterocystic cyanobacterial photosymbionts (Nostoc punctiforme). This hypothesis is not without problems, because bladders of Geosiphon are mostly erect and clavate, but beadlike only in early growth stages, form clusters or close strings rather than elongate strings, and are terrestrial rather than aquatic. Nevertheless this new hypothesis for Horodyskia is compatible with what little is known about fungal evolution, and testable by additional studies of its paleoenvironments and associated fossils

Health system choice: A pilot discrete-choice experiment eliciting the preferences of British and Australian citizens

Citizen preferences surrounding desirable health system characteristics should be considered when undertaking health system reform. The objective of this study was to pilot test a discrete-choice instrument designed to elicit preference weights surrounding health system attributes.A discrete-choice experiment was designed and administered to two convenience samples (n50 each) recruited from the UK and Australia. The impact of eight health system attributes representing level of health, equity, responsiveness and healthcare financing on the choice between hypothetical health systems was analysed utilizing mixed logit analysis.All characteristics affected the likelihood a health system would be preferred, with the exception of the additional tax contribution levels required to finance the system. There were very few missing or inconsistent responses. The direction of preferences was consistent with expectations for both samples; that is, an improvement in attributes describing level of health, equity or responsiveness increased the likelihood that a health system would be preferred.A number of potential improvements to the preference instrument are suggested. The discrete-choice technique used in this study offers a feasible method for eliciting health system preferences, and its use in a larger-scale study to elicit and compare the preferences of representative population samples is supported

Health System Choice: A Pilot Discrete-Choice Experiment Eliciting the Preferences of British and Australian Citizens

Citizen preferences surrounding desirable health system characteristics should be considered when undertaking health system reform. The objective of this study was to pilot test a discrete-choice instrument designed to elicit preference weights surrounding health system attributes. A discrete-choice experiment was designed and administered to two convenience samples (n - 50 each) recruited from the UK and Australia. The impact of eight health system attributes representing level of health, equity, responsiveness and healthcare financing on the choice between hypothetical health systems was analysed utilizing mixed logit analysis. All characteristics affected the likelihood a health system would be preferred, with the exception of the additional tax contribution levels required to finance the system. There were very few missing or inconsistent responses. The direction of preferences was consistent with expectations for both samples; that is, an improvement in attributes describing level of health, equity or responsiveness increased the likelihood that a health system would be preferred. A number of potential improvements to the preference instrument are suggested. The discrete-choice technique used in this study offers a feasible method for eliciting health system preferences, and its use in a larger-scale study to elicit and compare the preferences of representative population samples is supported.Conjoint-analysis, Patient-preference

Measuring the size of non-spherical particles and the implications for grain size analysis in volcanology

To quantify the size of tephra, two practical challenges must be addressed: the wide range of particle sizes (10−8 - 101 m) and the diversity of particle shape, density and optical properties. Here we use dynamic image analysis (DIA) to simultaneously characterise the size and shape of tephra samples from Mount Mazama, Krafla, Mount St. Helens and Campi Flegrei. The Camsizer X2 instrument used in this study, which has a measurement range of 0.8 μm – 8 mm, avoids the need to overlap different measurement methods and principles for fine (125 μm) particle sizes. Importantly, DIA does not require an assumption of particle properties. DIA also allows the measurement of grain size distributions (GSDs) using multiple size definitions. Quantification by particle long axis and the area equivalent sphere diameter, for example, make DIA GSDs compatible with the outputs of other methods such as laser diffraction and sieving. Parallel mass-based (sieving) and volume-based (DIA) GSDs highlight the effects of particle density variations on methods of size analysis; concentrations of dense crystals within a narrow size range, in particular, can affect mass-based GSDs and their interpretations. We also show that particle shape has an important effect on the apparent grain size of distal tephra. Extreme particle shapes, such as the platy glass shards typical of the distal Campanian Ignimbrite deposits, can appear coarser than other distal tephras if size is quantified according to the particle long axis. These results have important implications for ash dispersion models, where input GSDs assume that reported measurements are for volume-equivalent sphere diameters. We conclude that DIA methods are not only suitable for characterising, simultaneously, the size and shape of ash particles but also provide new insights into particle properties that are useful for both ash dispersion modelling and studies of explosive volcanism

The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at km scale

A new regional coupled modelling framework is introduced – the Regional Coupled Suite (RCS). This provides a flexible research capability with which to study the interactions between atmosphere, land, ocean and wave processes resolved at km-scale, and the effect of environmental feedbacks on the evolution and impacts of multi-hazard weather events. A configuration of the RCS focussed on the Indian region, termed RCS-IND1, is introduced. RCS-IND1 includes a regional configuration of the Unified Model (UM) atmosphere, directly coupled to the JULES land surface model, on a grid with horizontal spacing of 4.4 km, enabling convection to be explicitly simulated. These are coupled through OASIS3-MCT libraries to 2.2 km grid NEMO ocean and WAVEWATCH III wave model configurations. To examine a potential approach to reduce computation cost, and simplify ocean initialisation, the RCS includes an alternative approach to couple the atmosphere to a lower resolution Multi-Column K Profile Parameterization (KPP) for the ocean. Through development of a flexible modelling framework, a variety of fully and partially coupled experiments can be defined, along with traceable uncoupled simulations and options to use external input forcing in place of missing coupled components. This offers a wide scope to researchers designing sensitivity and case study assessments. Case study results are presented and assessed to demonstrate the application of RCS-IND1 to simulate two tropical cyclone cases which developed in the Bay of Bengal, namely Titli in October 2018 and Fani in April 2019. Results show realistic cyclone simulations, and that coupling can improve the cyclone track and produces more realistic intensification than uncoupled simulations for Titli but prevents sufficient intensification for Fani. Atmosphere-only UM regional simulations omit the influence of frictional heating on the boundary layer to prevent cyclone over-intensification. However, it is shown that this term can improve coupled simulations, enabling a more rigorous treatment of the near-surface energy budget to be represented. For these cases, a 1D mixed layer scheme shows similar first-order SST cooling and feedback on the cyclones as a 3D ocean. Nevertheless, the 3D ocean generally shows stronger localised cooling than the 1D ocean. Coupling with the waves have limited feedback on the atmosphere for these cases. Priorities for future model development are discussed