Inflation measure, Taylor rules, and the Greenspan-Bernanke years

Recent research has emphasized that the Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan was forward looking, smoothed interest rates, and focused on core inflation. The semiannual monetary policy reports to U.S. Congress indicate that the measure of inflation used in monetary policy deliberations has also been refined over time: For most of the Greenspan period before 2000, inflation forecasts used the consumer price index (CPI), but in the early 2000s, inflation forecasts switched to using the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator. Using information contained in Greenbook forecasts, this article estimates two forward-looking Taylor rules that differ only with respect to the measure of inflation used over 1987:1-2006:4. A Taylor rule that is estimated using a time-varying measure of core inflation-CPI until 2000 and PCE thereafter-depicts parameter stability in the Greenspan years, and tracks the actual path of the federal funds rate during the subperiod 2000:1–2006:4, when the measure of inflation used changed. In contrast, a Taylor rule that is estimated using headline CPI inflation does not depict such parameter stability, and indicates the actual funds rate was too low relative to the level prescribed during the subperiod 2000:1-2006:4, as headline CPI inflation remained elevated because of the continual rise in oil prices. Moreover, in real time during most of this subperiod, core PCE inflation was much lower than what is indicated by the current vintage data. These results highlight the importance of using real-time information in evaluating historical monetary policy actions.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy

Blimp-1-dependent and -independent natural antibody production by B-1 and B-1-derived plasma cells.

Natural antibodies contribute to tissue homeostasis and protect against infections. They are secreted constitutively without external antigenic stimulation. The differentiation state and regulatory pathways that enable continuous natural antibody production by B-1 cells, the main cellular source in mice, remain incompletely understood. Here we demonstrate that natural IgM-secreting B-1 cells in the spleen and bone marrow are heterogeneous, consisting of (a) terminally differentiated B-1-derived plasma cells expressing the transcriptional regulator of differentiation, Blimp-1, (b) Blimp-1+, and (c) Blimp-1neg phenotypic B-1 cells. Blimp-1neg IgM-secreting B-1 cells are not simply intermediates of cellular differentiation. Instead, they secrete similar amounts of IgM in wild-type and Blimp-1-deficient (PRDM-1ΔEx1A) mice. Blimp-1neg B-1 cells are also a major source of IgG3. Consequently, deletion of Blimp-1 changes neither serum IgG3 levels nor the amount of IgG3 secreted per cell. Thus, the pool of natural antibody-secreting B-1 cells is heterogeneous and contains a distinct subset of cells that do not use Blimp-1 for initiation or maximal antibody secretion

Assessing determinants of PPP project performance: Applying AHP to urban drinking water sector in India

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to understand the factors that affect the performance of projects being implemented on the public-private partnership (PPP) framework, with specific reference to urban drinking water sector in India. Design/methodology/approach: A listing of factors that have a bearing on project performance have been developed based on a review of the literature. Through a survey, seven factors that are relevant to the Indian context were determined. Interviews were then conducted across a cross-section of government agencies, financial institutions, development agencies, private sector entities and consultants to understand the relative importance of these attributes. The analytical hierarchy process was used to develop relative weights of these factors. Findings: Ranking and relative weights of the factors in descending order are stakeholder consent and support for water PPP projects (22.1 percent), appropriate project structure (17.4 percent), availability of realistic baseline information (16.2 percent), reasonable water tariffs (13.9 percent), public sector capacity (13.0 percent), well-developed market (9.5 percent) and water sector regulator (7.9 percent). Differences in perceptions amongst various stakeholder groups were also found. Research limitations/implications: Water sector has not matured, and with the advent of newer formats of implementation models, there could be significant changes in the sector. As the number of projects available for study is limited, this exercise can be undertaken periodically and updated in relation to experiences in other infrastructure sectors. Practical implications: This analysis provides inputs to policymakers and project proponents for structuring more sustainable urban drinking water PPP projects. Originality/value: Indian infrastructure PPP market is attracting increased attention from researchers, though not much emphasis is being given to urban drinking water sector. This paper aims to contribute toward filling this research gap. © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

A Gaussian Fixed Point Random Walk

In this note, we design a discrete random walk on the real line which takes steps $0, \pm 1$ (and one with steps in $\{\pm 1, 2\}$) where at least $96\%$ of the signs are $\pm 1$ in expectation, and which has $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ as a stationary distribution. As an immediate corollary, we obtain an online version of Banaszczyk's discrepancy result for partial colorings and $\pm 1, 2$ signings. Additionally, we recover linear time algorithms for logarithmic bounds for the Koml\'{o}s conjecture in an oblivious online setting.Comment: 8 page

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in people with intellectual disability: statistical approach to developing a bespoke screening tool.

BACKGROUND: Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is common among people with intellectual disability. Diagnosing ADHD in this clinically and cognitively complex and diverse group is difficult, given the overlapping psychiatric and behavioural presentations. Underdiagnoses and misdiagnoses leading to irrational polypharmacy and worse health and social outcomes are common. Diagnostic interviews exist, but are cumbersome and not in regular clinical use. AIMS: We aimed to develop a screening tool to help identify people with intellectual disability and ADHD. METHOD: A prospective cross-sectional study, using STROBE guidance, invited all carers of people with intellectual disability aged 18-50 years open to the review of the psychiatric team in a single UK intellectual disability service (catchment population: 150 000). A ten-item questionnaire based on the DSM-V ADHD criteria was circulated. All respondents' baseline clinical characteristics were recorded, and the DIVA-5-ID was administered blinded to the individual questionnaire result. Fisher exact and multiple logistic regressions were conducted to identify relevant questionnaire items and the combinations that afforded best sensitivity and specificity for predicting ADHD. RESULTS: Of 78 people invited, 39 responded (26 men, 13 women), of whom 30 had moderate-to-profound intellectual disability and 38 had associated comorbidities and on were medication, including 22 on psychotropics. Thirty-six screened positive for ADHD, and 24 were diagnosed (16 men, eight women). Analysis showed two positive responses on three specific questions to have 88% sensitivity and 87% specificity, and be the best predictor of ADHD. CONCLUSIONS: The three-question screening is an important development for identifying ADHD in people with intellectual disability. It needs larger-scale replication to generate generalisable results

Photopolymerizable biodegradable hydrogels as tissue contacting materials and controlled-release carriers

Hydrogels of polymerized and crosslinked macromers comprising hydrophilic oligomers having biodegradable monomeric or oligomeric extensions, which biodegradable extensions are terminated on free ends with end cap monomers or oligomers capable of polymerization and cross linking are described. The hydrophilic core itself may be degradable, thus combining the core and extension functions. Macromers are polymerized using free radical initiators under the influence of long wavelength ultraviolet light, visible light excitation or thermal energy. Biodegradation occurs at the linkages within the extension oligomers and results in fragments which are non-toxic and easily removed from the body. Preferred applications for the hydrogels include prevention of adhesion formation after surgical procedures, controlled release of drugs and other bioactive species, temporary protection or separation of tissue surfaces, adhering of sealing tissues together, and preventing the attachment of cells to tissue surfaces.Board of Regents, University of Texas Syste

Drivers and Barriers to the Use of Building Information Modelling in India

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is a remarkable development that has recently engulfed the construction sector globally. It has provided a catalytic means for “rethinking” the design, construction, and operation of our built environment. Fundamentally a technology driven concept, BIM when entwined with issues pertaining to people, processes and organizations has the potential to significantly impact the industry. Considering global adoption of BIM, a clear divide between developed economies and emerging economies can be seen. Significantly low adoption of BIM in the developing world has been reported. Paradoxically the need for BIM in the developing world is far more than the developed world. With this backdrop, this paper reports on the adoption of BIM in India. Finding the adoption rate in India low, this research aimed at finding out the drivers and barriers to the use of BIM. The research has been divided into two phases. The first phase involved interaction with industry professionals by conducting semi structured interviews so as to gather deeper and actual understanding of the subject under study. In the second phase, on the basis of this interaction and the literature review, a questionnaire was prepared and an online survey was conducted. As per the analysis of the collected data, it surfaced that the use of BIM is still in its nascent stage in India, although its adoption has seen an upward trend in the past three to four years. BIM adoption has still not reached a stage where the users can comment on the savings in cost due to BIM implementation as the majority of the respondents have not seen full cycle of successful implementation. Stakeholders remain sceptical about BIM adoption and its perceived benefits. However a majority of the users are intuitively convinced that there is savings in time and significant improvement in final quality. Moving forward a meaningful impact can be made on the state of education, research and practice pertaining to BIM in India via a meaningful collaboration between industry, government, and academia. Findings of this study can be compared and collated across other emerging economies to develop implementation strategies

Treating medical conditions by polymerizing macromers to form polymeric materials

Water soluble macromers are modified by addition of free radical polymerizable groups, such as those containing a carbon-carbon double or triple bond, which can be polymerized under mild conditions to encapsulate tissues, cells, or biologically active materials. The polymeric materials are particularly useful as tissue adhesives, coatings for tissue lumens including blood vessels, coatings for cells such as islets of Langerhans, and coatings, plugs, supports or substrates for contact with biological materials such as the body, and as drug delivery devices for biologically active molecules. A medical condition at a localized site is treated by applying a polymerization initiator and then applying a substantially water-soluble, degradable macromer of at least 200 mw and having at least two crosslinkable substituents, and polymerizing the macromer to form a crosslinked polymeric material at the site. The crosslinked polymeric material may adhere two surfaces together, or be a barrier that provides immunoisolation or prevents adhesion of the site to another surface such as post-surgical adhesion. A biologically active material may be present when the macromer is polymerized to provide for delivery of the biologically active material, or to provide the polymeric material with a desired property such as resistance to bacterial growth or a decrease in inflammatory response.Board of Regents, University of Texas Syste

Влияет ли корпоративная социальная ответственность на финансовые показатели? Данные по индийским компаниям

The sceptical attitude towards linking corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate financial performance (CFP) forms the basis of this study. The available literature concentrates only on the positive side of CSR activities and benefits derived from them. The Companies Act, 2013, has made it mandatory for Indian companies of a certain turnover and profit to use 2% of their profits from the past three years on CSR activities. Given this background, this study examines the impact of CSR on the financial performance of the business itself. The economic legitimacy of CSR is also probed, that is, does CSR have a positive economic impact? For this examination, the Pearson Fixed effects panel regression analysis was performed on Nifty 50 companies during the period 2010–2018. Data regarding financial performance variables was obtained from Prowess IQ database. The CSR data was collected from the companies’ annual reports and content analysis was done using NVIVO software. The results of the study provide insights into the corporate response to the mandatory requirement of CSR activities and their impact on the company’s financial performance. The results of the study conclude that there is no significant influence of CSR on the financial performance of Indian companies.Скептическое отношение к взаимосвязи корпоративной социальной ответственности (КСО) и корпоративных финансовых показателей (КФП) составляет основу данного исследования. Существующая литература сосредоточена только на положительной стороне деятельности КСО и выгодах, получаемых от нее. В соответствии с Законом о компаниях 2013 г. индийские компании с определенным оборотом и прибылью за последние три года обязаны использовать 2% от своей прибыли для осуществления деятельности в области КСО. Учитывая этот факт, цель данного исследование — определить влияние КСО на финансовые показатели самого бизнеса. Также исследуется экономическая легитимность КСО, т.е. имеет ли КСО положительный экономический эффект. Для этого был проведен панельный регрессионный анализ Пирсона с фиксированными эффектами на примере компаний Nifty 50 за период 2010–2018 гг. Данные о переменных финансовых показателях получены из базы данных Prowess IQ. Данные о КСО собраны из годовых отчетов компаний, а контент-анализ проводился с помощью программного обеспечения NVIVO. Результаты исследования дают представление о реакции корпораций на обязательные требования о проведении мероприятий КСО и их влиянии на финансовые показатели компании. Результаты исследования показывают отсутствие существенного влияния КСО на финансовые показатели индийских компаний