The model and the planning method of volume and variety assessment of innovative products in an industrial enterprise

In the long term, the innovative development strategy efficiency is considered as the most crucial condition for assurance of economic system competitiveness in market conditions. It determines the problem relevance of such justification strategies with regard to specific systems features and conditions of their operation. The problem solution for industrial enterprises can be based on mathematical models of supporting the decision-making on the elements of the innovative manufacturing program. An optimization model and the planning method of innovative products volume and variety are suggested. The feature of the suggested model lies in the nonlinear nature of the objective function. It allows taking into consideration the law of diminishing marginal utility. The suggested method of optimization takes into account the system features and enables the effective implementation of manufacturing capabilities in modern conditions of production organization and sales in terms of market saturation

Methodology for Estimating the Expected Cost of Engineering and Technology Innovation

The article proposes a methodology for estimating the expected cost of technical and technological innovations. The evaluation is performed in the pre-design phase of the innovation (project initiation phase). It relies on the method of analogy and is implemented based on the principle of “so was - so will be.” At the same time, the available analogues provide objective information about “how it was.” Extending this data into the future to estimate the cost of design relies on probabilistic interpretation of the available uncertainty. Uncertainty removal is accomplished using the principle of maximum entropy. This ensures the most complete consideration of the available objective information and minimizes speculation in assessing the cost of designing innovative objects. In general, the methodology proposed in the article allows obtaining objective estimates of the expected cost of designing technical and technological innovations in the standard information situation for the initiation stage of the project

Model and Method of Calendar Planning of Logistic Processes of Enterprises of Agricultural Complex

A model and method for the formation of optimal calendar plans for the organization of logistics processes for the functioning of enterprises of the agro-industrial complex have been developed. The model is based on the presentation of the procedure for the formation of an optimal calendar plan in the form of a discrete programming problem. The optimization method is based on the procedure of branches and boundaries. The proposed model and method are the basis for creating specific methods for the formation of optimal calendar plans for the organization of logistical processes of the functioning of the agro industrial complex

The model and the planning method of volume and variety assessment of innovative products in an industrial enterprise

In the long term, the innovative development strategy efficiency is considered as the most crucial condition for assurance of economic system competitiveness in market conditions. It determines the problem relevance of such justification strategies with regard to specific systems features and conditions of their operation. The problem solution for industrial enterprises can be based on mathematical models of supporting the decision-making on the elements of the innovative manufacturing program. An optimization model and the planning method of innovative products volume and variety are suggested. The feature of the suggested model lies in the nonlinear nature of the objective function. It allows taking into consideration the law of diminishing marginal utility. The suggested method of optimization takes into account the system features and enables the effective implementation of manufacturing capabilities in modern conditions of production organization and sales in terms of market saturation

The institutional framework of the Eurasian economic union

The article analyzes the institutional framework of trade in goods in the EEC. As the framework (obstacles) are considered measures of technical regulation as the most significant to maintain the security of goods, at the same time revealed the dual nature of such measures. On the one hand, they aimed at ensuring the safety of products, and with another - should not hinder trade within the EEU

Justification of Financing of Measures to Prevent Accidents in Power Systems

The article proposes the models of rational resource allocation for the implementation of measures to prevent industrial accidents in energy supply systems. They allow maximizing the integral effect of preventing these accidents, as well as eliminating their consequences in the event of restrictions on the resources allocated. As a unified measure of the volume of resources, the cost of implementing these measures has been adopted. The integral effect of financing events is estimated by an indicator formed by various options for combining private indicators of the effect of their financing. Analytical relationships have been obtained for a number of options for representing the integral effect of financing measures to prevent industrial accidents in power supply systems. They cover a fairly wide range of interesting practical problems that allow assessing various types of synergistic effect due to the distribution of available resources for financing the activities under consideration. This makes the proposed models useful for energy management at the micro and macro levels. Their practical application in the interests of energy management is associated with the choice of one or several models reflecting the specifics of measures to prevent technological accidents in power supply systems and the specification of the constant parameters of these models taking into account the specifics of these measures

Justification of Financing of Measures to Prevent Accidents in Power Systems

The article proposes the models of rational resource allocation for the implementation of measures to prevent industrial accidents in energy supply systems. They allow maximizing the integral effect of preventing these accidents, as well as eliminating their consequences in the event of restrictions on the resources allocated. As a unified measure of the volume of resources, the cost of implementing these measures has been adopted. The integral effect of financing events is estimated by an indicator formed by various options for combining private indicators of the effect of their financing. Analytical relationships have been obtained for a number of options for representing the integral effect of financing measures to prevent industrial accidents in power supply systems. They cover a fairly wide range of interesting practical problems that allow assessing various types of synergistic effect due to the distribution of available resources for financing the activities under consideration. This makes the proposed models useful for energy management at the micro and macro levels. Their practical application in the interests of energy management is associated with the choice of one or several models reflecting the specifics of measures to prevent technological accidents in power supply systems and the specification of the constant parameters of these models taking into account the specifics of these measures. © 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG

MODEL FOR FORECASTING OF VOLUME AND STRUCTURE "GREY IMPORT"

The revenues of the Federal budget of the Russian Federation to a significant extent, is formed at the expense of customs payments. Hence, in the case of large amounts of "gray import", the state's economy can be significantly affected. The performance measures against "gray import" depends on the timely and adequate prediction of its structure and volumes. This forecast assumes the availability of appropriate models. However, the currently known models do not provide the timeliness and adequacy of the forecast.The article suggests a model for the current prediction of volume and structure of "gray import". The model allowed stochastic representation of the "gray imports", simulating the processes of its formation. This simulation allows more adequately than the commonly used regression and expert models, considering available information about the "gray import" and thereby improves prediction accuracy its volume and structure. The information basis of the proposed model are data of the risk management system of the Federal customs service of the Russian Federation. The application of the proposed model allows near real-time to predict the structure and volume of "gray imports" and on this basis to develop the necessary measures to counter it

MODEL OF DECISION SUPPORT THE FORMATION PRODUCT STRATEGY AND PRODUCTION PLAN

We consider the optimization model of planning the volume and range of products manufactured by the enterprise, taking into account the non-linear nature of the objective function. Currently planning is based on models with linear objective function that does not take into account economic law of decreasing marginal utility and leads to significant errors in terms of the saturation of the market sales. The feature of the proposed model is the nonlinear character of the objective function. The nonlinearity in contrast to the known models are taken into account in development of product strategies and enterprise decreasing marginal utility. The model is designed to support decision making in the formation of commodity strategy and production plan

Models for predicting damage due to accidents at energy objects and in energy systems of enterprises

Achieving energy security by preventing and timely eliminating the consequences of accidents at energy facilities and in energy supply systems of enterprises is one of the important tasks of energy management. The basis for planning appropriate energy security measures is the prediction of damage from these accidents. The purpose of forecasting is to assess the possibility of an accident occurring at some point in time and leading to a particular damage, and to assess the magnitude of this damage. The article proposed methodological approaches to the construction of mathematical models of such prediction. In this case, as an indicator of damage, the economic losses caused by these accidents are taken. The simulation is based on the representation of this indicator in the form of a step change function of the magnitude of losses in the event of an accident. Depending on the amount of information available in the period prior to forecasting, the mathematical representation of the forecasting problem is reduced to the construction of conditionally determined or stochastic models. Conditionally determined models allow obtaining acceptable damage estimates with a short period of retrospection and small amounts of information, and stochastic models with significantly large amounts. At the same time, the principle of "maximum uncertainty" formalized in the form of maximum entropy is the basis for removing uncertainty in the construction of both conditionally determined and stochastic models. Its use has allowed increasing the objectivity of forecasts by minimizing the subjective information used in modeling. The proposed approaches to the construction of mathematical models for predicting accidents at energy facilities and power supply systems of enterprises are the basis for creating specific techniques for solving relevant energy management tasks both at the micro level at the scale of individual enterprises and at the macro level at the scale of industries, regions and the state as a whole. © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019