Low flow response surfaces for drought decision support: a case study from the UK

Droughts are complex natural hazards, and planning future management is complicated by the difficulty of projecting future drought and low flow conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of a response surface approach to explore the hydrological behavior of catchments under a range of possible future conditions. Choosing appropriate hydrological metrics ensures that the response surfaces are relevant to decision-making. Examples from two contrasting English catchments show how low flows in different catchments respond to changes in rainfall and temperature. In an upland western catchment, the Mint, low flows respond most to rainfall and temperature changes in summer, but in the groundwater dominated catchment of the Thet, changes in spring rainfall have the biggest impact on summer flows. Response surfaces are useful for understanding long-term changes, such as those projected in climate projections, but they may also prove useful in drought event management, where possible future conditions can be plotted onto the surface to understand the range of conditions the manager faces. Developing effective response surfaces requires considerable involvement and learning from catchment decision-makers at an early stage, and this should be considered in any planned application

Mapping mean and variance of runoff in a river basin

International audienceThe study presents an approach to depict the two first order moments of runoff as a function of area (and thus on a map). The focal point is the mapping of the statistical properties of runoff q=q(A,D) in space (area A) and time (time interval D). The problem is divided into two steps. Firstly the first order moment (the long term mean value) is analysed and mapped applying an interpolation procedure for river runoff. In a second step a simple random model for the river runoff process is proposed for the instantaneous point runoff normalised with respect to the long term mean. From this model theoretical expressions for the time-space variance-covariance of the inflow to the river network are developed, which then is used to predict how the second order moment vary along rivers from headwaters to the mouth. The observation data are handled in the frame of a hydrological information system HydroDem, which allows displaying the results either in the form of area dependence of moments along the river branches to the basin outlet or as a map of the variation of the moments across the basin space. The findings are demonstrated on the example of the Moselle drainage basin (French part)

La prévision des précipitations par recherche d'analogues : état de l'art et perspectives

La prévision des précipitations par analogie, adaptée des sorties de modèles numériques de prévision, s'est améliorée ces dix dernières années et est actuellement implémentée opérationnellement dans diverses infrastructures françaises. Le premier objectif de cette étude est de dresser l'état de l'art de cette approche. L'application de cette méthode nécessite une base de données contenant les champs des variables qui permettent de caractériser les situations météorologiques passées. Etant donné qu'il existe deux archives de génération différente (réanalyses ERA-40 et NCEP/NCAR), la sensibilité de cette méthode de prévision au choix de l'archive a été étudiée. Les résultats révèlent une faible sensibilité, même si de manière générale les performances sont légèrement supérieures avec l'archive ERA-40, notamment pour les événements pluvieux extrêmes. Enfin, des perspectives d'amélioration de la méthode susceptibles d'être exploitées à court terme sont évoquées. / Precipitation forecasting based on an adaptation of model outputs through an analog sorting technique has been improved for around ten years. The method runs operationally in several French institutions. First, this short paper presents the state of the art of this approach and the more recent developments. Second, a sensitivity analysis to the choice of the database from which the variables that characterise the past meteorological situations are extracted is performed. Two available archives are tested (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses). The results show that despite the performances obtained with the ERA-40 database are slightly better, especially for heavy rainfall events, the sensitivity is weak. Finally, further ways for improvement that could be investigated are suggested

Mapping mean monthly runoff pattern using EOF analysis

International audienceRunoff generation in a forested catchment (0.18 km2) was simulated using a quasi-three-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. The model was formulated over a finite grid where water movement was assumed to be dominantly vertical in the unsaturated soil zone and horizontal in the saturated soil. The vertical soil moisture distribution at each grid cell was calculated using a conceptual approximation to the one-dimensional Richards equation. The approximation allowed the use of a simple soil surface boundary condition and an efficient solution to the water table elevation over the finite grid. The approximation was coupled with a two-dimensional ground water model to calculate lateral soil water movement between the grid cells and exfiltration over saturated areas, where runoff was produced by the saturation-excess mechanism. Runoff was an input to a channel network, which was modelled as a nonlinear reservoir. The proposed approximation for the vertical soil moisture distribution in unsaturated soil compared well to a numerical solution of the Richards equation during shallow water table conditions, but was less satisfactory during prolonged dry periods. The simulation of daily catchment outflow was successful with the exception of underprediction of extremely high peak flows. The calculated water table depth compared satisfactorily with the measurements. An overall comparison with the earlier results of tracer studies indicated that the modelled contribution of direct rainfall/snowmelt in streamflow was higher than the isotopically traced fraction of event-water in runoff. The seasonal variation in the modelled runoff-contributing areas was similar to that in the event-water-contributing areas from the tracer analysis

La Loire à l'épreuve du changement climatique

Les changements climatiques annoncés vont-ils induire une modification du cycle de l'eau et des débits dans un bassin comme la Loire, géologiquement contrasté et soumis à des climats variés (océanique, continental, cévenol) ? Nos résultats suggèrent une diminution des ressources en eau disponibles en moyennes eaux et en étiage. En revanche la dynamique et l'intensité des crues ne devraient pas varier significativement

An online database to collate, analyze, and synthesize data on the biodiversity and ecology of intermittent rivers worldwide

Key questions dominating contemporary ecological research and management concern interactions between biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and ecosystem services provision in the face of global change. This is particularly salient for freshwater biodiversity and in the context of river drying and flow-regime change. Rivers that stop flowing and dry, herein intermittent rivers, are globally prevalent and dynamic ecosystems on which the body of research is expanding rapidly, consistent with the era of big data. However, the data encapsulated by this work remain largely fragmented, limiting our ability to answer the key questions beyond a case-by-case basis. To this end, the Intermittent River Biodiversity Analysis and Synthesis (IRBAS; http://irbas.cesab.org) project has collated, analyzed, and synthesized data from across the world on the biodiversity and environmental characteristics of intermittent rivers. The IRBAS database integrates and provides free access to these data, contributing to the growing, and global, knowledge base on these ubiquitous and important river systems, for both theoretical and applied advancement. The IRBAS database currently houses over 2000 data samples collected from six countries across three continents, primarily describing aquatic invertebrate taxa inhabiting intermittent rivers during flowing hydrological phases. As such, there is room to expand the biogeographic and taxonomic coverage, for example, through addition of data collected during nonflowing and dry hydrological phases. We encourage contributions and provide guidance on how to contribute and access data. Ultimately, the IRBAS database serves as a portal, storage, standardization, and discovery tool, enabling collation, synthesis, and analysis of data to elucidate patterns in river biodiversity and guide management. Contribution creates high visibility for datasets, facilitating collaboration. The IRBAS database will grow in content as the study of intermittent rivers continues and data retrieval will allow for networking, meta-analyses, and testing of generalizations across multiple systems, regions, and taxa

Water restrictions under climate change: a Rhône–Mediterranean perspective combining bottom-up and top-down approaches

Drought management plans (DMPs) require an overview of future climate conditions for ensuring long-term relevance of existing decision-making processes. To that end, impact studies are expected to best reproduce decision-making needs linked with catchment intrinsic sensitivity to climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a risk-based approach through sensitivity, exposure and performance assessments to identify where and when, due to climate change, access to surface water constrained by legally binding water restrictions (WRs) may question agricultural activities. After inspection of legally binding WRs from the DMPs in the Rhône–Mediterranean (RM) district, a framework to derive WR durations was developed based on harmonized low-flow indicators. Whilst the framework could not perfectly reproduce all WR ordered by state services, as deviations from sociopolitical factors could not be included, it enabled the identification of most WRs under the current baseline and the quantification of the sensitivity of WR duration to a wide range of perturbed climates for 106 catchments. Four classes of responses were found across the RM district. The information provided by the national system of compensation to farmers during the 2011 drought was used to define a critical threshold of acceptable WR that is related to the current activities over the RM district. The study finally concluded that catchments in mountainous areas, highly sensitive to temperature changes, are also the most predisposed to future restrictions under projected climate changes considering current DMPs, whilst catchments around the Mediterranean Sea were found to be mainly sensitive to precipitation changes and irrigation use was less vulnerable to projected climatic changes. The tools developed enable a rapid assessment of the effectiveness of current DMPs under climate change and can be used to prioritize review of the plans for those most vulnerable basins

What impacts of climate change on surface water in France by 2070? Results of the Explore2070 project in metropolitan France and overseas departments

International audienceLes questions relatives à la disponibilité et à la gestion de l'eau concentreront l'essentiel des mesures d'adaptation qui seront prises dans les décennies à venir pour faire face aux conséquences des changements climatiques. Ces mesures devront également prendre en compte les évolutions socio-économiques, en termes de démographie, d'aménagement du territoire et de politiques publiques (agriculture, énergie, transports, etc.). Il est dès lors primordial pour les décideurs et gestionnaires de quantifier les évolutions socio-économiques possibles, ainsi que le devenir de la ressource en eau et de sa variabilité temporelle et spatiale. C'est dans ce contexte que le projet Explore2070 avait pour objectif d'évaluer les impacts possibles des changements climatiques et socio-économiques futurs sur les grandes masses d'eau (surface, souterrain, littoral) et la biodiversité, en France métropolitaine et sur les départements d'Outre-mer (Guadeloupe, Guyane, Martinique et Réunion). Piloté par le Ministère de l'Ecologie (MEDDTL), ce projet a rassemblé de nombreux bureaux d'études et instituts de recherche pour dresser un panorama général des évolutions à attendre à l'horizon 2070. Par son ampleur et la variété de ses objectifs, ce projet doit permettre de répondre à de nombreuses questions des gestionnaires et de mieux apprécier les enjeux de ces évolutions. Dans la suite, nous présentons les travaux réalisés spécifiquement sur la quantification des évolutions des eaux de surface. Nous détaillerons dans ce qui suit la démarche générale de modélisation proposée, la nature des résultats obtenus, ainsi que la façon dont les incertitudes ont été quantifiées. Ce dernier point est indispensable pour aider à la prise de décision dans un avenir incertain. / Water availability and water management will be the focus of most of the adaptation measures that will be taken in the next decades to face the consequences of climate change. These measures will have to account for the socio-economic evolutions, in terms of population size, town and country planning, as well as public policies (agriculture, energy, transports, etc.). It is therefore essential for decision makers and managers to be able to quantify the possible socio-economic evolutions together with the evolution of water resources and their temporal and spatial variability. In this context, the Explore2070 project aimed at evaluating the possible impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes on water bodies (surface water, groundwater and coastal water) and biodiversity, in metropolitan France and overseas departments (Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guyana, and Réunion Island). The project was managed by the French Ministry of Ecology (MEDDTL) and gathered several consultancies and research institutes to establish a general overview of the expected evolutions by 2070. Through both the extent and the variety of the project’s objectives, Explore2070 will provide answers to many questions raised by managers and better evaluate the stakes related to these evolutions. In the following, we present the work done specifically to quantify the evolution of surface water. The general modelling approach, the type of results and the way uncertainties were quantified are detailed. Uncertainty quantification is essential to help decision making in an uncertain future

Aqua temporaria incognita

Invited commentary

A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis

Flood frequency analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the local streamflow series. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model is less restrictive than the index flood model while preserving the formalism of "homogeneous regions". The performance of the proposed model is assessed on a set of gauging stations in France. The accuracy of quantile estimates as a function of the degree of homogeneity of the pooling group is also analysed. The results indicate that the regional Bayesian model outperforms the index flood model and local estimators. Furthermore, it seems that working with relatively large and homogeneous regions may lead to more accurate results than working with smaller and highly homogeneous regions