807 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
A Rank Approach to Equity Forecast Construction
The purpose of this paper is to present a rank based approach to cross-sectionallinear factor modelling. The emphasis is on approximating factor exposures in aconsistent manner in order to facilitate the merging of subjective information(from professional investors) with objective information (from accounting dataand/or state of the art quantitative models) in a statistically rigorous way withoutneeding to impose the unrealistic simplifying assumptions typical of more standardtime series models. We deal with the problems of identifying country and sectorreturns by an innovative hierarchical factor structure. This is all discussed fromthe perspective that investment models are not immutable but rather need to bedesigned with characteristics that are fit for their purpose; for example, returningaggregate county and sector forecasts that are consistent by construction
Recommended from our members
Asset Management with Price Impact and Fair Treatment of Clients
In light of recent regulatory initiatives focusing on fair treatment of customers in financial markets, this paper examines the agency problem created by an asset manager with market impact, segregated accounts and preference-based contracts. It illustrates how aggregate client welfare and assets under management are affected by the order in which clients' accounts are sequentially traded and demonstrates that the manager is unlikely to have incentives for equal treatment of clients. Effectively, she may conduct limited invisible transfers of wealth among largely uninformed clients by granting preferential market access to some of them and this may be purely the result of her dollar-alpha maximization efforts rather than size/importance-based client discrimination. Increased transparency and/or effective regulation in this area seem socially desirable since the manager's incentives and client welfare generally appear to be misaligned
Recommended from our members
What Proportion of Time is a particular Market inefficient?...Analysing market efficiency when equity prices follow Threshold Autoregressions.
We assume that log equity prices follow multi-state threshold autoregressions and generalize existing results for threshold autoregressive models, presented in Knight and Satchell (2012) for the existence of a stationary process and the conditions necessary for the existence of a mean and a variance; we also present formulae for these moments. Using a simulation study we explore what these results entail with respect to the impact they can have on tests for detecting bubbles or market efficiency. We find that bubbles are easier to detect in processes where a stationary distribution does not exist. Furthermore, we explore how threshold autoregressive models with i.i.d trigger variables may enable us to identify how often asset markets are inefficient. We find, unsurprisingly, that the fraction of time spent in an efficient state depends upon the full specification of the model; the notion of how efficient a market is, in this context at least, a model-dependent concept. However, our methodology allows us to compare efficiency across different asset markets
Liquidity Costs, Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns
This paper considers liquidity as an explanation for the positive association
between expected idiosyncratic volatility (IV) and expected stock returns.
Liquidity costs may affect the stock returns, through bid-ask bounce and other
microstructure-induced noise, which will affect the estimation of IV. We use a
novel method (developed by Weaver, 1991) to eliminate microstructure influences
from stock closing price-based returns and then estimate IV. We show that there
is a premium for IV in value-weighted portfolios, but this premium is less
strong after correcting returns for microstructure bias. We further show that
this premium is driven by liquidity in the prior month after correcting returns
for microstructure noise. The pricing results from equally-weighted portfolios
indicate that IV does not predict returns either before or after controlling
for liquidity costs. These findings are robust after controlling for common
risk factors as well as analysing double-sorted portfolios based on IV and
liquidity
Recommended from our members
Modelling Demand for ESG
Existing approaches have considered characteristics of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) focused investments from a return-oriented perspective, not paying due consideration to investorsā utility and how ESG features impact utility. We contribut
Supercurrent diode effect in thin film Nb tracks
We demonstrate nonreciprocal critical current in 65 nm thick polycrystalline
and epitaxial Nb thin films patterned into tracks. The nonreciprocal behavior
gives a supercurrent diode effect, where the current passed in one direction is
a supercurrent and the other direction is a normal state (resistive) current.
We study the variation of the diode effect with temperature and magnetic field,
and find an unexpected dependence with the width of the Nb tracks from 2-10
m. For both polycrystalline and epitaxial samples, we find that tracks of
width 4 m provides the largest supercurrent diode efficiency of up to
, with the effect reducing or disappearing in the widest tracks of
10 m. It is anticipated that the supercurrent diode will become a
ubiquitous component of the superconducting computer.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure
Numerical Simulation of Heat Transfer and Chemistry in the Wake Behind a Hypersonic Slender Body at Angle of Attack
The effect of thermal and chemical boundary conditions on the structure and chemical composition of the wake behind a 3D Mach 7 sphere-cone at an angle of attack of 5 degrees and an altitude of roughly 30,000 m is explored. A special emphasis is placed on determining the number density of chemical species which might lead to detection via the electromagnetic spectrum. The use of non-ablating cold-wall, adiabatic, and radiative equilibrium wall boundary conditions are used to simulate extremes in potential thermal protection system designs. Non-ablating, as well as an ablating boundary condition using the āsteady-state ablationā assumption to compute a surface energy balance on the wall are used in order to determine the impacts of ablation on wake composition. On-body thermal boundary conditions downstream of an ablating nose are found to significantly affect wake temperature and composition, while the role of catalysis is found to change the composition only marginally except at very high temperatures on the coneās surface for the flow regime considered. Ablation is found to drive the extensive production of detectable species otherwise unrelated to ablation, whereas if ablation is not present at all, air-species which would otherwise produce detectable spectra are minimal. Studies of afterbody cooling techniques, as well as shape, are recommended for further analysis
Optimal long term investment in a jump diffusion setting : a large deviation approach
In this study, we propose a new method based on the large deviations theory to select
an optimal investment for a large portfolio such that the risk, which is defined as the probability
that the portfolio return underperforms an investable benchmark, is minimal. As a
particular case, we examine the effect of two types of asymmetric dependence; 1) asymmetry
in a portfolio return distribution, and 2) asymmetric dependence between asset returns, on
the optimal portfolio invested in two risky assets. Furthermore, since our analysis is based
on a parametric framework, this allows us to formulate a close-form relationship between
the measures of correlation and the optimal portfolio. Finally, we calibrate our method
with equity data, namely S&P 500 and Bangkok SET. The empirical evidences confirm
that there is a significant impact of asymmetric dependence on optimal portfolio and risk
Rapportābuilding in multiple interviews of children
AbstractRapportābuilding is key in child investigative interviews, however, recommendations of how to build rapport differ. Additionally, rapport in more complex situations: when a child is interviewed repeatedly or requires separate rapport building have not been studied. This research examined the UK's āAchieving Best Evidenceā guidelines for rapportābuilding, which recommend conducting a neutral discussion, compared with a control condition and a separate rapportābuilding session for first interviews on children's recall and wellābeing (measured by state anxiety and rapport questionnaires). For second and third interviews, additional full rapportābuilding sessions were compared to shortened or no rapportābuilding conditions. No significant differences in children's (N = 107) recall or wellābeing were found across rapportābuilding conditions for all interviews. We conclude that for children who have experienced nonātraumatic events, the inclusion of a neutral discussion rapportābuilding phase may not be any more beneficial for children than conducting a friendly interview
- ā¦