The temporal event-based model: Learning event timelines in progressive diseases

Timelines of events, such as symptom appearance or a change in biomarker value, provide powerful signatures that characterise progressive diseases. Understanding and predicting the timing of events is important for clinical trials targeting individuals early in the disease course when putative treatments are likely to have the strongest effect. However, previous models of disease progression cannot estimate the time between events and provide only an ordering in which they change. Here, we introduce the temporal event-based model (TEBM), a new probabilistic model for inferring timelines of biomarker events from sparse and irregularly sampled datasets. We demonstrate the power of the TEBM in two neurodegenerative conditions: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Huntington's disease (HD). In both diseases, the TEBM not only recapitulates current understanding of event orderings but also provides unique new ranges of timescales between consecutive events. We reproduce and validate these findings using external datasets in both diseases. We also demonstrate that the TEBM improves over current models; provides unique stratification capabilities; and enriches simulated clinical trials to achieve a power of 80% with less than half the cohort size compared with random selection. The application of the TEBM naturally extends to a wide range of progressive conditions

A comparative evaluation of PDQ-Evidence

BACKGROUND: A strategy for minimising the time and obstacles to accessing systematic reviews of health system evidence is to collect them in a freely available database and make them easy to find through a simple ‘Google-style’ search interface. PDQ-Evidence was developed in this way. The objective of this study was to compare PDQ-Evidence to six other databases, namely Cochrane Library, EVIPNet VHL, Google Scholar, Health Systems Evidence, PubMed and Trip. METHODS: We recruited healthcare policy-makers, managers and health researchers in low-, middle- and highincome countries. Participants selected one of six pre-determined questions. They searched for a systematic review that addressed the chosen question and one question of their own in PDQ-Evidence and in two of the other six databases which they would normally have searched. We randomly allocated participants to search PDQ-Evidence first or to search the two other databases first. The primary outcomes were whether a systematic review was found and the time taken to find it. Secondary outcomes were perceived ease of use and perceived time spent searching. We asked open-ended questions about PDQ-Evidence, including likes, dislikes, challenges and suggestions for improvements. RESULTS: A total of 89 people from 21 countries completed the study; 83 were included in the primary analyses and 6 were excluded because of data errors that could not be corrected. Most participants chose PubMed and Cochrane Library as the other two databases. Participants were more likely to find a systematic review using PDQ-Evidence than using Cochrane Library or PubMed for the pre-defined questions. For their own questions, this difference was not found. Overall, it took slightly less time to find a systematic review using PDQ-Evidence. Participants perceived that it took less time, and most participants perceived PDQ-Evidence to be slightly easier to use than the two other databases. However, there were conflicting views about the design of PDQ-Evidence. CONCLUSIONS: PDQ-Evidence is at least as efficient as other databases for finding health system evidence. However, using PDQ-Evidence is not intuitive for some people

Longitudinal imaging highlights preferential basal ganglia circuit atrophy in Huntington's disease

Huntington's disease is caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the Huntingtin gene (HTT), coding for polyglutamine in the Huntingtin protein, with longer CAG repeats causing earlier age of onset. The variable 'Age' × ('CAG'-L), where 'Age' is the current age of the individual, 'CAG' is the repeat length and L is a constant (reflecting an approximation of the threshold), termed the 'CAG Age Product' (CAP) enables the consideration of many individuals with different CAG repeat expansions at the same time for analysis of any variable and graphing using the CAG Age Product score as the X axis. Structural MRI studies have showed that progressive striatal atrophy begins many years prior to the onset of diagnosable motor Huntington's disease, confirmed by longitudinal multicentre studies on three continents, including PREDICT-HD, TRACK-HD and IMAGE-HD. However, previous studies have not clarified the relationship between striatal atrophy, atrophy of other basal ganglia structures, and atrophy of other brain regions. The present study has analysed all three longitudinal datasets together using a single image segmentation algorithm and combining data from a large number of subjects across a range of CAG Age Product score. In addition, we have used a strategy of normalizing regional atrophy to atrophy of the whole brain, in order to determine which regions may undergo preferential degeneration. This made possible the detailed characterization of regional brain atrophy in relation to CAG Age Product score. There is dramatic selective atrophy of regions involved in the basal ganglia circuit-caudate, putamen, nucleus accumbens, globus pallidus and substantia nigra. Most other regions of the brain appear to have slower but steady degeneration. These results support (but certainly do not prove) the hypothesis of circuit-based spread of pathology in Huntington's disease, possibly due to spread of mutant Htt protein, though other connection-based mechanisms are possible. Therapeutic targets related to prion-like spread of pathology or other mechanisms may be suggested. In addition, they have implications for current neurosurgical therapeutic approaches, since delivery of therapeutic agents solely to the caudate and putamen may miss other structures affected early, such as nucleus accumbens and output nuclei of the striatum, the substantia nigra and the globus pallidus

Near-Infrared Monitoring of Volatiles in Frozen Lunar Simulants While Drilling

In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) focuses on using local resources for mission consumables. The approach can reduce mission cost and risk. Lunar polar volatiles, e.g. water ice, have been detected via remote sensing measurements and represent a potential resource for both humans and propellant. The exact nature of the horizontal and depth distribution of the ice remains to be documented in situ. NASA's Resource Prospector mission (RP) is intended to investigate the polar volatiles using a rover, drill, and the RESOLVE science package. RP component level hardware is undergoing testing in relevant lunar conditions (cryovacuum). In March 2015 a series of drilling tests were undertaken using the Honeybee Robotics RP Drill, Near-Infrared Volatile Spectrometer System (NIRVSS), and sample capture mechanisms (SCM) inside a 'dirty' thermal vacuum chamber at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The goal of these tests was to investigate the ability of NIRVSS to monitor volatiles during drilling activities and assess delivery of soil sample transfer to the SCMs in order to elucidate the concept of operations associated with this regolith sampling method

Online teacher development: collaborating in a virtual learning environment

Over recent years educational institutions have been making increasing use of virtual environments to set up collaborative activities for learners. While it is recognized that teachers play an important role in facilitating learner collaboration online they may not have the necessary skills to do so successfully. Thus, a small scale professional development programme was set up and piloted by two distance universities. The aims were to develop teachers’ experience of online group work; to trial a set of pilot activities which would raise awareness of factors contributing to successful collaborative online activity; and to identify professional development needs in this area. This article reports on the hands-on experience of a group of 20 teachers, examines some of the competences that are needed to successfully collaborate in virtual environments, and presents the skills that teachers need to foster online collaborative learning in the virtual classroom. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected, examining the levels of participation among participants, the collaborative activity of two groups, and teacher perception of the collaboration which took place. The skills identified include planning and managing the collaboration, designing appropriate activities, giving clear instructions and getting students to negotiate ground rules for participation, moderating at the right level, and choosing the right environment and the appropriate tool(s). While this study was carried out with language teachers, many of the findings are applicable to other subject areas where growing emphasis is placed on the development of collaborative skills

Investigation of the direct effects of salmon calcitonin on human osteoarthritic chondrocytes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Calcitonin has been demonstrated to have chondroprotective effects under pre-clinical settings. It is debated whether this effect is mediated through subchondral-bone, directly on cartilage or both in combination. We investigated possible direct effects of salmon calcitonin on proteoglycans and collagen-type-II synthesis in osteoarthritic (OA) cartilage.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Human OA cartilage explants were cultured with salmon calcitonin [100 pM-100 nM]. Direct effects of calcitonin on articular cartilage were evaluated by 1) measurement of proteoglycan synthesis by incorporation of radioactive labeled ³⁵SO₄[5 μCi] 2) quantification of collagen-type-II formation by pro-peptides of collagen type II (PIINP) ELISA, 3) QPCR expression of the calcitonin receptor in OA chondrocytes using four individual primer pairs, 4) activation of the cAMP signaling pathway by EIA and, 5) investigations of metabolic activity by AlamarBlue.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>QPCR analysis and subsequent sequencing confirmed expression of the calcitonin receptor in human chondrocytes. All doses of salmon calcitonin significantly elevated cAMP levels (P < 0.01 and P < 0.001). Calcitonin significantly and concentration-dependently [100 pM-100 nM] induced proteoglycan synthesis measured by radioactive ³⁵SO₄incorporation, with a 96% maximal induction at 10 nM (P < 0.001) corresponding to an 80% induction of 100 ng/ml IGF, (P < 0.05). In alignment with calcitonin treatments [100 pM-100 nM] resulted in 35% (P < 0.01) increased PIINP levels.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Calcitonin treatment increased proteoglycan and collagen synthesis in human OA cartilage. In addition to its well-established effect on subchondral bone, calcitonin may prove beneficial to the management of joint diseases through direct effects on chondrocytes.</p

Dynamic Evolution of Pathogenicity Revealed by Sequencing and Comparative Genomics of 19 Pseudomonas syringae Isolates

Closely related pathogens may differ dramatically in host range, but the molecular, genetic, and evolutionary basis for these differences remains unclear. In many Gram- negative bacteria, including the phytopathogen Pseudomonas syringae, type III effectors (TTEs) are essential for pathogenicity, instrumental in structuring host range, and exhibit wide diversity between strains. To capture the dynamic nature of virulence gene repertoires across P. syringae, we screened 11 diverse strains for novel TTE families and coupled this nearly saturating screen with the sequencing and assembly of 14 phylogenetically diverse isolates from a broad collection of diseased host plants. TTE repertoires vary dramatically in size and content across all P. syringae clades; surprisingly few TTEs are conserved and present in all strains. Those that are likely provide basal requirements for pathogenicity. We demonstrate that functional divergence within one conserved locus, hopM1, leads to dramatic differences in pathogenicity, and we demonstrate that phylogenetics-informed mutagenesis can be used to identify functionally critical residues of TTEs. The dynamism of the TTE repertoire is mirrored by diversity in pathways affecting the synthesis of secreted phytotoxins, highlighting the likely role of both types of virulence factors in determination of host range. We used these 14 draft genome sequences, plus five additional genome sequences previously reported, to identify the core genome for P. syringae and we compared this core to that of two closely related non-pathogenic pseudomonad species. These data revealed the recent acquisition of a 1 Mb megaplasmid by a sub-clade of cucumber pathogens. This megaplasmid encodes a type IV secretion system and a diverse set of unknown proteins, which dramatically increases both the genomic content of these strains and the pan-genome of the species

Effect of Deutetrabenazine on Chorea Among Patients With Huntington Disease A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance Deutetrabenazine is a novel molecule containing deuterium, which attenuates CYP2D6 metabolism and increases active metabolite half-lives and may therefore lead to stable systemic exposure while preserving key pharmacological activity. Objective To evaluate efficacy and safety of deutetrabenazine treatment to control chorea associated with Huntington disease. Design, Setting, and Participants Ninety ambulatory adults diagnosed with manifest Huntington disease and a baseline total maximal chorea score of 8 or higher (range, 0-28; lower score indicates less chorea) were enrolled from August 2013 to August 2014 and randomized to receive deutetrabenazine (n = 45) or placebo (n = 45) in a double-blind fashion at 34 Huntington Study Group sites. Interventions Deutetrabenazine or placebo was titrated to optimal dose level over 8 weeks and maintained for 4 weeks, followed by a 1-week washout. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary end point was the total maximal chorea score change from baseline (the average of values from the screening and day-0 visits) to maintenance therapy (the average of values from the week 9 and 12 visits) obtained by in-person visits. This study was designed to detect a 2.7-unit treatment difference in scores. The secondary end points, assessed hierarchically, were the proportion of patients who achieved treatment success on the Patient Global Impression of Change (PGIC) and on the Clinical Global Impression of Change (CGIC), the change in 36-Item Short Form– physical functioning subscale score (SF-36), and the change in the Berg Balance Test. Results Ninety patients with Huntington disease (mean age, 53.7 years; 40 women [44.4%]) were enrolled. In the deutetrabenazine group, the mean total maximal chorea scores improved from 12.1 (95% CI, 11.2-12.9) to 7.7 (95% CI, 6.5-8.9), whereas in the placebo group, scores improved from 13.2 (95% CI, 12.2-14.3) to 11.3 (95% CI, 10.0-12.5); the mean between-group difference was –2.5 units (95% CI, –3.7 to –1.3) (P < .001). Treatment success, as measured by the PGIC, occurred in 23 patients (51%) in the deutetrabenazine group vs 9 (20%) in the placebo group (P = .002). As measured by the CGIC, treatment success occurred in 19 patients (42%) in the deutetrabenazine group vs 6 (13%) in the placebo group (P = .002). In the deutetrabenazine group, the mean SF-36 physical functioning subscale scores decreased from 47.5 (95% CI, 44.3-50.8) to 47.4 (44.3-50.5), whereas in the placebo group, scores decreased from 43.2 (95% CI, 40.2-46.3) to 39.9 (95% CI, 36.2-43.6), for a treatment benefit of 4.3 (95% CI, 0.4 to 8.3) (P = .03). There was no difference between groups (mean difference of 1.0 unit; 95% CI, –0.3 to 2.3; P = .14), for improvement in the Berg Balance Test, which improved by 2.2 units (95% CI, 1.3-3.1) in the deutetrabenazine group and by 1.3 units (95% CI, 0.4-2.2) in the placebo group. Adverse event rates were similar for deutetrabenazine and placebo, including depression, anxiety, and akathisia. Conclusions and Relevance Among patients with chorea associated with Huntington disease, the use of deutetrabenazine compared with placebo resulted in improved motor signs at 12 weeks. Further research is needed to assess the clinical importance of the effect size and to determine longer-term efficacy and safety