Projected marine heatwaves in the 21st century and the potential for ecological impact

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of “anthropogenic emergence,” with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.This research was supported by the Australian Research Council grants CE170100023 and FT170100106, Natural Environment Research Council International Opportunity Fund NE/N00678X/1, National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255, and Brian Mason (Impacts of an unprecedented marine heatwave). This project was partially supported through funding from the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Inflow Speed Analysis of Interchange Injections in Saturn's Magnetosphere

During its more than 13 years in orbit, the Cassini spacecraft detected a large number of plasma and energetic charged particle injections in Saturn's inner magnetosphere. In the corotating frame of the planet, the plasma contained within an injection moves radially inward with the component particles gaining energy. The highest energy particles in the injection experience stronger gradient‐curvature drifts in the longitudinal direction and can drift out of the main body of the injection. We have used these drift‐out effects to estimate the inflow speed of 19 injections by surveying cases from the available plasma data. We find that the average inflow speed from our sample is 22 km/s, and the values are well distributed between 0 and 50 km/s, with a few higher estimates. We have also computed the radial travel distance of interchange events and found that these are typically one to two Saturn radii. We discuss the implications of these quantifications on our understanding of transport

Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services

The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century, with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems 1 . Concurrent with long-term persistent warming, discrete periods of extreme regional ocean warming (marine heatwaves, MHWs) have increased in frequency 2 . Here we quantify trends and attributes of MHWs across all ocean basins and examine their biological impacts from species to ecosystems. Multiple regions in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans are particularly vulnerable to MHW intensification, due to the co-existence of high levels of biodiversity, a prevalence of species found at their warm range edges or concurrent non-climatic human impacts. The physical attributes of prominent MHWs varied considerably, but all had deleterious impacts across a range of biological processes and taxa, including critical foundation species (corals, seagrasses and kelps). MHWs, which will probably intensify with anthropogenic climate change 3 , are rapidly emerging as forceful agents of disturbance with the capacity to restructure entire ecosystems and disrupt the provision of ecological goods and services in coming decades. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Vaccines to prevent COVID-19: A living systematic review with Trial Sequential Analysis and network meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

Background COVID-19 is rapidly spreading causing extensive burdens across the world. Effective vaccines to prevent COVID-19 are urgently needed. Methods and findings Our objective was to assess the effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines through analyses of all currently available randomized clinical trials. We searched the databases CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and other sources from inception to June 17, 2021 for randomized clinical trials assessing vaccines for COVID-19. At least two independent reviewers screened studies, extracted data, and assessed risks of bias. We conducted meta-analyses, network meta-analyses, and Trial Sequential Analyses (TSA). Our primary outcomes included all-cause mortality, vaccine efficacy, and serious adverse events. We assessed the certainty of evidence with GRADE. We identified 46 trials; 35 trials randomizing 219 864 participants could be included in our analyses. Our meta-analyses showed that mRNA vaccines (efficacy, 95% [95% confidence interval (CI), 92% to 97%]; 71 514 participants; 3 trials; moderate certainty); inactivated vaccines (efficacy, 61% [95% CI, 52% to 68%]; 48 029 participants; 3 trials; moderate certainty); protein subunit vaccines (efficacy, 77% [95% CI, -5% to 95%]; 17 737 participants; 2 trials; low certainty); and viral vector vaccines (efficacy 68% [95% CI, 61% to 74%]; 71 401 participants; 5 trials; low certainty) prevented COVID- 19. Viral vector vaccines decreased mortality (risk ratio, 0.25 [95% CI 0.09 to 0.67]; 67 563 participants; 3 trials, low certainty), but comparable data on inactivated, mRNA, and protein subunit vaccines were imprecise. None of the vaccines showed evidence of a difference on serious adverse events, but observational evidence suggested rare serious adverse events. All the vaccines increased the risk of non-serious adverse events. Conclusions The evidence suggests that all the included vaccines are effective in preventing COVID-19. The mRNA vaccines seem most effective in preventing COVID-19, but viral vector vaccines seem most effective in reducing mortality. Further trials and longer follow-up are necessary to provide better insight into the safety profile of these vaccines.Fil: Korang, Steven Kwasi. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: von Rohden, Elena. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Veroniki, Areti Angeliki. Imperial College London; Reino Unido. St. Michael’s Hospital; CanadáFil: Ong, Giok. John Radcliffe Hospital; Reino UnidoFil: Ngalamika, Owen. University of Zambia; ZambiaFil: Siddiqui, Faiza. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Juul, Sophie. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Nielsen, Emil Eik. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Feinberg, Joshua Buron. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Petersen, Johanne Juul. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Legart, Christian. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Kokogho, Afoke. Henry M. Jackson Foundation Medical Research International; NigeriaFil: Maagaard, Mathias. Copenhagen University Hospital; Dinamarca. Zealand University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Klingenberg, Sarah. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Thabane, Lehana. Mcmaster University; CanadáFil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Ciapponi, Agustín. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Thomsen, Allan Randrup. Universidad de Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: Jakobsen, Janus C.. University of Southern Denmark; Dinamarca. Copenhagen University Hospital; DinamarcaFil: Gluud, Christian. Copenhagen University Hospital; Dinamarca. University of Southern Denmark; Dinamarc

Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Moore, P. J., Rodrigues, R. R., Scannell, H. A., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Wernberg, T., & Smale, D. A. Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19359. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75445-3.Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and spatial extent. Many of these events have yet to be described in terms of their physical attributes, generation mechanisms, or ecological impacts. Our synthesis identifies commonalities between marine heatwave characteristics and seasonality, links to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, triggering processes and impacts on ocean productivity. The most intense events preferentially occur in summer, when climatological oceanic mixed layers are shallow and winds are weak, but at a time preceding climatological maximum sea surface temperatures. Most subtropical extreme marine heatwaves were triggered by persistent atmospheric high-pressure systems and anomalously weak wind speeds, associated with increased insolation, and reduced ocean heat losses. Furthermore, the most extreme events tended to coincide with reduced chlorophyll-a concentration at low and mid-latitudes. Understanding the importance of the oceanic background state, local and remote drivers and the ocean productivity response from past events are critical steps toward improving predictions of future marine heatwaves and their impacts.Concepts and analyses were developed during three workshops organized by an international working group on marine heatwaves (https://www.marineheatwaves.org) funded by a University of Western Australia Research Collaboration Award and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) International Opportunity Fund (NE/N00678X/1). D.A.S. is supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/S032827/1). The Australian Research Council supported T.W. (FT110100174 and DP170100023) and A.S.T. (FT160100495). N.J.H. and L.V.A. are supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). M.S.T was supported by the Brian Mason Trust. P.J.M. is supported by a Marie Curie Career Integration Grant (PCIG10-GA-2011–303685) and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) Grant (NE/J024082/1). E.C.J.O. was supported by National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255 and Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR) project 1-02-02-059.1. C.C.U. acknowledges financial support through the Early Career Scientist Endowed Fund, George E. Thibault Early Career Scientist Fund, and The Joint Initiative Awards Fund from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation at WHOI. M.G.D. received funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 grant reference RYC-2017-22964. NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

Care seeking behaviour and barriers to accessing services for sexually transmitted infections among female sex workers in Laos: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prompt, correct diagnosis and treatment with health information are essential components of reproductive tract infection (RTI) and sexually transmitted infection (STI) services. This study aims to describe care seeking behaviour and barriers to accessing RTI/STI services among female sex workers (FSWs) in Laos.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey using closed and open-ended questions was performed in six districts along Road 9, traversing Savannakhet province from Thailand to Vietnam. In total, 407 FSWs were interviewed. The data were analyzed and presented descriptively. Multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to assess associations between respondents' background characteristics and care seeking behaviour.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>About half of the respondents (49%) were less than or equal to 19 years of age, and 50% had started or completed secondary school. Fifty-eight percent had been engaged in sex work for less than 1 year. Eighty-six percent of the respondents reported RTI/STI signs or symptoms currently or in the last 3 months but only two-thirds of those with symptoms sought treatment. Source of treatment for the last RTI/STI episode was the drop-in centre (53%) followed by a public hospital (23%), private clinic (12%), private pharmacy (9%), and herbalist (2%). The main barriers to service use were long waiting time, inconvenient location of the clinic, not knowing where to get the services needed, and negative attitudes among healthcare providers. Care seeking behaviour was associated with longer duration of sex work (OR = 2.6, 95%CI 1.52-5.36). Forty-four percent received health information from peer educators, 34% from fellow friends, 26% from a pimp, and 26% had received information from a healthcare provider during the visit.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There were several barriers to accessing RTI/STI services and they were related to both structural and individual factors. Innovative STI service strategies to inform FSWs about the importance of early diagnosis and treatment should be established. Continuous training for STI service providers focusing on counseling skills and awareness of the sexual health care needs for FSWs is recommended in order to minimize the barriers experienced by FSWs in this particular setting.</p

Trends in type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality in Scotland between 2004 and 2013

No abstract available

Meta-analysis of exome array data identifies six novel genetic loci for lung function [version 1; peer review:1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: Over 90 regions of the genome have been associated with lung function to date, many of which have also been implicated in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Methods: We carried out meta-analyses of exome array data and three lung function measures: forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and the ratio of FEV1 to FVC (FEV1/FVC). These analyses by the SpiroMeta and CHARGE consortia included 60,749 individuals of European ancestry from 23 studies, and 7,721 individuals of African Ancestry from 5 studies in the discovery stage, with follow-up in up to 111,556 independent individuals. Results: We identified significant (P&lt;2•8x10 -7 ) associations with six SNPs: a nonsynonymous variant in RPAP1, which is predicted to be damaging, three intronic SNPs (SEC24C, CASC17 and UQCC1) and two intergenic SNPs near to LY86 and FGF10. Expression quantitative trait loci analyses found evidence for regulation of gene expression at three signals and implicated several genes, including TYRO3 and PLAU. Conclusions: Further interrogation of these loci could provide greater understanding of the determinants of lung function and pulmonary disease.</p

Loss of Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase Kinase Kinase 4 (MAP3K4) Reveals a Requirement for MAPK Signalling in Mouse Sex Determination

The boygirl (byg) mouse mutant reveals that MAP3K4-mediated signaling is necessary for normal SRY expression and testis specification in the developing mouse gonad