El proyecto HIRLAM-C (2016-2020): estado y evolución

Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.El esfuerzo que requiere el desarrollo de un modelo numérico de predicción del tiempo ha requerido la colaboración entre los diversos Servicios Meteorológicos Nacionales (SMN). En este contexto, en 1985 se fundó el primero de los consorcios europeos para el desarrollo de un modelo de área limitada, del cual tomó su nombre: HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model). El consorcio HIRLAM, inicialmente constituido por los países nórdicos, se extendió posteriormente a diez SMN de los siguientes países: Dinamarca, Estonia, Finlandia, Islandia, Irlanda, Lituania, Holanda, Noruega, España y Suecia, con Francia como miembro asociado. Posteriormente, en 2005 se inició una colaboración estratégica entre el consorcio HIRLAM y el consorcio ALADIN. ALADIN está formado, a su vez, por los SMN de dieciséis países: Argelia, Austria, Bélgica, Bulgaria, Croacia, Republica Checa, Francia, Hungría, Marruecos, Polonia, Portugal, Rumanía, Eslovaquia, Eslovenia, Túnez y Turquía. El objetivo de esta colaboración, en el campo de la investigación en predicción numérica, es desarrollar y mantener un modelo «estado-del-arte» que permita realizar las mejores predicciones a corto y muy corto plazo de tiempo. Para aunar esfuerzos, el código se desarrolla en el marco del modelo ECMWF/Arpege Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). En su versión de mesoescala, el sistema de análisis y predicción adoptado por el consorcio HIRLAM es denominado HARMONIE-AROME. El desarrollo conjunto de un modelo entre veintiséis países requiere un gran esfuerzo estratégico y de coordinación. Solo de este modo, se puede asegurar que el avance científico sea el adecuado para proveer las mejores predicciones meteorológicas posibles. En este trabajo se mostrará cómo se articula el proyecto, cuál es el estado del mismo y las líneas futuras de investigación y desarrollo

Modeled Saharan desert dust radiative effects over the Iberian Peninsula and Atlantic ocean

Ponencia presentada en: XXXI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XI Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Sevilla, del 1 al 3 de marzo de 2010.The work was funded by the Portuguese FCT through grant SFRH/BD/27870/2006 and through project PTDC/CTE-ATM/65307/2006

Predictability of precipitation with Aemet multimodel SREPS: assessment using HR observations (yavtobos)

Presentación realizada para: 30th EWGLAM & 15th SRNWP Meetings celebrado del 6 al 9 de octubre de 2008 en Madrid.This project is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education under research projects CGL2004-04095/CLI and CGL2005-05681

Performance of the INM short-range multi-model ensemble using high resolution precipitation observations

Presentación realizada en: 3rd International Workshop on Verification Methods celebrado del 29 de enero al 2 de febrero de 2007 en Reading, Reino Unido

Supercomputación: un factor clave en la evolución de la predicción del tiempo

La predicción del tiempo ha ido siempre de la mano de la necesidad de realizar cálculos numéricos, por lo que los más grandes computadores del mundo han sido grandes aliados de los meteorólogos

Predictability of short-range forecasting: a multimodel approach

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (including mesoscale) have limitations when it comes to dealing with severe weather events because extreme weather is highly unpredictable, even in the short range. A probabilistic forecast based on an ensemble of slightly differentmodel runs may help to address this issue. Among other ensemble techniques, Multimodel ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are proving to be useful for adding probabilistic value to mesoscale deterministic models. A Multimodel Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) focused on forecasting the weather up to 72 h has been developed at the panishMeteorological Service (AEMET). The system uses five different limited area models (LAMs), namely HIRLAM (HIRLAM Consortium), HRM (DWD), the UM (UKMO), MM5 (PSU/NCAR) and COSMO (COSMO Consortium). These models run with initial and boundary conditions provided by five different global deterministic models, namely IFS (ECMWF), UM (UKMO), GME (DWD), GFS (NCEP) and CMC (MSC). AEMET-SREPS (AE) validation on the large-scale flow, using ECMWF analysis, shows a consistent and slightly underdispersive system. For surface parameters, the system shows high skill forecasting binary events. 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts are verified using an up-scaling grid of observations from European high-resolution precipitation networks, and compared with ECMWF-EPS (EC)

Preliminary evaluation of a short-range ensemble prediction system over western Mediterranean

Comunicación presentada en: 9th WRF Users’ Workshop celebrado del 23 al 27 de junio de 2008 en Colorado.A generation of a short-range ensemble prediction system, based on a set of mesoscale models with different subgrid-scale physic schemes and two different initial conditions, is developed, providing flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts by means of predictive probability distributions over the Western Mediterranean. A ten members short-range ensemble forecast system has been constructed over western Mediterranean area as a result of combining two different initial conditions from global models and five different physics configurations of the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (MM5, version 3). The simulations obtained from this ensemble have been investigated during October 2006 period. An overview of the mean model performance and forecast variability, together with an evaluation of the ensemble accuracy, by means of comparison between the ensemble system and observations is provided. Calculations of the ensemble probability distribution functions for precipitation are displayed, providing explicit information on ensemble forecast uncertainty and constituting one of the major advantages of the ensemble methods over deterministic forecasting. The quality and value of precipitation forecasts have been evaluated against Spanish Climatic Network. The verification scores exhibit hopeful results encouraging the extension of this preliminary research to other verification periods and studying cases

Verification of a short-range ensemble precipitation prediction system over Iberia

The purpose of this paper is the verification of a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) built with five different model physical process parameterization schemes and two different initial conditions from global models, allowing to construct several versions of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale MM5 model for a 1-month period of October 2006. From the SREPS, flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts are provided by means of predictive probability distributions over the Iberian Peninsula down to 10-km grid spacing. In order to carry out the verification, 25 km grid of observational precipitation records over Spain from the Spanish Climatic Network has been used to evaluate the ensemble accuracy together with the mean model performance and forecast variability by means of comparisons between such records and the ensemble forecasts.This work has been partially supported by the research projects CGL2007-61328/CLI and UE Safewind G. A. No. 213740