Presentación realizada en: 3rd International Workshop on Verification Methods celebrado del 29 de enero al 2 de febrero de 2007 en Reading, Reino Unido

Callado, Alfons

García-Moya, José Antonio

Santos Burguete, Carlos

Santos Muñoz, Daniel

Simarro, Juan Pablo

English

Callado Pallarés, Alfons

Simarro Grande, Juan Pablo

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 1Performance of the INM short-rangemulti-model ensemble using high resolution precipitation observationsCARLOS SANTOS, ALFONS CALLADO, JOSE A. GARCIA-MOYA, DANIEL SANTOS-MUÑOZ AND JUAN SIMARRO.Predictability Group   Spanish Meteorological Institute (INM). 28040 Madrid. Spain3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 2Outline• INM SREPS multimodel• Verification exercise• Performance results• INM rain gauge network• Comparison INM-MF-DWD-Joint• Concluding remarks3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 3INM SREPS Multimodel• Multimodel• 72 hours forecast• Twice a day (00,12 UTC)• 5x4 = 20 members(see POSTERS by CalladoA., García-Moya JA., Simarro J.)3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 4Verification exercise• 24h accumulated precipitation forecast 06UTC-06UTC against observed 07UTC-07UTC• Checked in HH+30 and HH+54• ~90 days (Apr1 to Jun30 2006).• Few different rain gauge networks as references:• INM precipitation network (pnw)• MeteoFrance pnw• DWD pnw• Joint pnw• Verification method• Interpolation to observation points• Verification software• ~ ECMWF Metview + Local developments• Performance scores• ECMWF recommendations3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 5INM pcp network• Multimodel3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 6Reliability & Sharpness• Good reliability according to• thresholds (base rate)• forecast length3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 7Resolution• Good resolution• ROC Areas• BSSs• Good RV curves 010.513rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 8RV• We use a simple algorythm to compute acc pcp rank histograms avoiding “zero problems”• Over all those points with obs=0 and M of N fcs=0 the rank of the observation is not really zero (though it is in some algorythmswhich plot a spurious overload of “zero ranks”)• In those cases, a random rank {0..M} can be assigned, which is the same that to add 1/M to all bins in {0,M}. Always under the assumption that the number of realizations is large enough• With this method more realistic rank histograms can be achieved3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 9Más cosas3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 103rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 11Networks Comparison3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 12Joint3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 13Reliability & Sharpness• Good reliability according to• thresholds (base rate)• forecast length3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 14Resolution• Good resolution• ROC Areas• BSSs• Good RV curves010.513rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 15Conclusions & near future• According to this exercise, the performance of the INM short-range multi-model ensemble 24h accumulated precipitation forecasts using high resolution pcp observations is very good• INM, MF, DWD & joint pnw show high performance (reliability & resolution), independently on the different frequency of occurrence (base rate) on each network, thus overcoming different skill difficulties• Future plans to improve acc pcp SREPS forecasts• Increase model resolution of individual members (currently ~ 0.25ºx40)• Promising BMA on acc pcp (see Santos, D. presentation)• Future improvements on the verification method• Fuzzy verification methods (shown in this workshop Casati, Ebert) might show a more realistic information about performance (e.g. better representativeness of actual pcp)• Focus on Proper skill scores (Broecker), bootstrap (Wilson)3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 16Aknowledgements• Eugenia Kalnay (Univ. Of Maryland),• Ken Mylne, Jorge Bornemann (MetOffice)• Detlev Majewski, Michael Gertz (DWD)• Metview Team, Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)• Chiara Marsigli, Ulrich Schättler (COSMO)• Olivier Talagrand (LMD)• We also like to thank DWD and MeteoFrance to make their climate network precipitation observations available to us for verification• This project is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education under research projects CGL2004-04095/CLI and CGL2005-056813rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 17Any questions?csantos@inm.es3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 18Extras(Bonus slides)3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 19Team• José A. García-Moya.• Carlos Santos (Hirlam, verification & graphics, web server).• Daniel Santos (MM5, Bayesian Model Average).• Alfons Callado (UM & grib software).• Juan Simarro (HRM, LM and Vertical interpolation software).3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 20References• Jolliffe, I. T., Stephenson, D.B., 2003: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, John Wiley andSons, Chichester• Verification of ECMWF products in Member States and Co-operating States, Report 2005. ECMWF, A1-A15. • Hou D., Kalnay E., & Droegemeier, K.K., 2001: Objective Verification of the SAMEX’98 Ensemble Forecasts. M.W.R., 129, 73-91.• Buizza, R., A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette, and A. Ghelli, 1999: Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. ECMWF• Stensrud D. J., H. E. Brooks, J. Du, M. S. Tracton, and E. Rogers, 1999: Using Ensembles for Short-Range Forecasting, M.W.R., 127, 433-446• Arribas A., Robertson K.B., & Mylne, K.R., 2005: Test of Poor Man’s Ensemble Prediction System. M.W.R., 133, 1825-18393rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 21Links• WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Verification, Forecast Verification - Issues, Methods and FAQhttp://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/verif_web_page.html• VERIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR LONG-RANGE FORECASTS NEW, Standard Verification System (SVS) for Long-range Forecasts (LRF)http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/verification_systems.html• ECMWF EPS Verification http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/verification/3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 223rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 23DWD pnw3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 24Más cosas• DWD3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 25Más cosas3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 26MF3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 27Más cosas• MeteoFrance3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 28Joint3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 29Joint3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 30Más cosas• Joint3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 31• Predictability is flow dependent• Extreme weather events have a lowpredictability, uncertainties can growcritically even in the Short Range (less than72 hours), • Convection is highly non-linear and it shows a chaotic behaviour. • Then a probabilistic apprach may help toimprove the prediction of such phenomena.Introduction3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 32• Surface parameters are the most important ones for weather forecast.• Forecast of extreme events (convective precip, gales,…) is probabilistic.• Short Range Ensemble prediction can help to forecast these events.• Forecast risk (Palmer, ECMWF Seminar 2002) is the goal for both Medium- and, also, Short-Range Prediction.Ensemble for short range3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 33• Main Weather Forecast issues are related with Short-Range extreme events.• Convective precipitation is the most dangerous weather event in Spain.• Western Mediterranean is a close sea rounded by high mountains, in autumn sea is warmer than air.• Several cases of more than 200 mm/few hours every year. Some fast cyclogenesis like “tropical cyclones”.Meteorological Framework3rd Workshop on Verification Methods 31 Jan-2 Feb ECMWF 34Ensemble for short rangeView publication statsView publication stats

Performance of the INM short-range multi-model ensemble using high resolution  precipitation observations

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/11957/1/Performance_of_the_INM_short-range_multi-model_ens.pdf

Performance of the INM short-range multi-model ensemble using high resolution precipitation observations

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología