A probabilistic analysis of selected notions of iterated conditioning under coherence

It is well known that basic conditionals satisfy some desirable basic logical and probabilistic properties, such as the compound probability theorem. However checking the validity of these becomes trickier when we switch to compound and iterated conditionals. Herein we consider de Finetti's notion of conditional both in terms of a three-valued object and as a conditional random quantity in the betting framework. We begin by recalling the notions of conjunction and disjunction among conditionals in selected trivalent logics. Then we analyze the notions of iterated conditioning in the frameworks of the specific three-valued logics introduced by Cooper-Calabrese, by de Finetti, and by Farrel. By computing some probability propagation rules we show that the compound probability theorem and other important properties are not always preserved by these formulations. Then, for each trivalent logic we introduce an iterated conditional as a suitable random quantity which satisfies the compound prevision theorem as well as some other desirable properties. We also check the validity of two generalized versions of Bayes' Rule for iterated conditionals. We study the p-validity of generalized versions of Modus Ponens and two-premise centering for iterated conditionals. Finally, we observe that all the basic properties are satisfied within the framework of iterated conditioning followed in recent papers by Gilio and Sanfilippo in the setting of conditional random quantities

Assessment of Intracranial Arterial Stenosis with Multidetector Row CT Angiography: A Postprocessing Techniques Comparison

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: It was demonstrated the some patients with stroke have intracranial stenosis of 50% or greater and the identification of intracranial arterial stenosis is extremely important in order to plan a correct therapeutical approach. The aim of this study was to assess the image quality and intertechnique agreement of various postprocessing methods in the detection of intracranial arterial stenosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Eighty-five patients who were studied by using a multidetector row CT scanner were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 2040 segments were examined in the 85 subjects. Intracranial vasculature was assessed by using MPR, CPR, MIP, and VR techniques. Two radiologists reviewed the CT images independently. Cohen weighted κ statistic was applied to calculate interobserver agreement and for image accuracy for each reconstruction method. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were also calculated by using the consensus read as the reference. RESULTS: Two hundred fifteen (10.5%) stenosed artery segments were identified by the observers in consensus. The best intermethod κ values between observers 1 and 2 were obtained by VR and MIP (κ values of 0.878 and 0.861, respectively), whereas MPR provided the lowest value (κ value of 0.282). VR showed a sensitivity for detecting stenosed segments of 88.8% and 91.6% for observers 1 and 2, respectively. The highest positive predictive value was also obtained by VR at 95% and 99% for observers 1 and 2, respectively. Image accuracy obtained by using VR was the highest among all reconstruction methods in both observers (185/255 and 177/255 for observers 1 and 2, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study suggest that VR and MIP techniques provide the best interobserver and intertechnique concordance in the analysis of intravascular cranial stenosis

Extreme Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall during Financial Crisis

This paper investigates Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall for CAC 40, S&P 500, Wheat and Crude Oil indexes during the 2008 financial crisis. We show an underestimation of the risk of loss for the unconditional VaR models as compared with the conditional models. This underestimation is stronger using the historical VaR approach than when using the extreme values theory VaR model. Even in 2008 financial crisis, the conditional EVT model is more accurate and reliable for predicting the asset risk losses. Banks have no interest in using it because the Basel II agreement penalizes banks using accuracy models like the conditional EVT model, and this is the case for the assets being studied in this paper.Market risk; Value at Risk; EVT; GARCH; Financial crisis; Basel requirements

CT attenuation analysis of carotid intraplaque hemorrhage

Background and Purpose: Intraplaque hemorrhage is considered a leading parameter of carotid plaque vulnerability. Our purpose was to assess the CT characteristics of intraplaque hemorrhage with histopathologic correlation to identify features that allow for confirming or ruling out the intraplaque hemorrhage. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 91 patients (67 men; median age, 657 years; age range, 41-83 years) who underwent CT angiography and carotid endarterectomy from March 2010 to May 2013. Histopathologic analysis was performed for the tissue characterization and identification of intraplaque hemorrhage. Two observers assessed the plaque's attenuation values by using an ROI (≤1 and ≥2 mm2). Receiver operating characteristic curve, Mann-Whitney, and Wilcoxon analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 169 slices were assessed (59 intraplaque hemorrhage, 63 lipid-rich necrotic core, and 47 fibrous); the average values of the intraplaque hemorrhage, lipid-rich necrotic core, and fibrous tissue were 17.475 Hounsfield units (HU) and 18.407 HU, 39.476 HU and 48.048 HU, and 91.66 HU and 93.128 HU, respectively, before and after the administration of contrast medium. The Mann-Whitney test showed a statistically significant difference of HU values both in basal and after the administration of contrast material phase. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed a statistical association between intraplaque hemorrhage and low HU values, and a threshold of 25 HU demonstrated the presence of intraplaque hemorrhage with a sensitivity and specificity of 93.22% and 92.73%, respectively. The Wilcoxon test showed that the attenuation of the plaque before and after administration of contrast material is different (intraplaque hemorrhage, lipid-rich necrotic core, and fibrous tissue had P values of .006, .0001, and .018, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this preliminary study suggest that CT can be used to identify the presence of intraplaque hemorrhage according to the attenuation. A threshold of 25 HU in the volume acquired after the administration of contrast medium is associated with an optimal sensitivity and specificity. Special care should be given to the correct identification of the ROI

Age and Cytokine Gene Variants Modulate the Immunogenicity and Protective Effect of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-Based Vaccination

: The introduction of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in late 2020 substantially changed the pandemic picture, inducing effective protection in the population. However, individual variability was observed with different levels of cellular response and neutralizing antibodies. We report data on the impact of age, gender, and 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of cytokine genes on the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titers measured 31 and 105 days after administration of the second dose of BNT162b2 vaccine to 122 healthy subjects from the health care staff of the Palermo University Hospital, Italy. The higher titers at 31 days were measured in the younger subjects and in subjects bearing T-positive genotypes of IL-1R1 rs2234650 or the GG homozygous genotype of IL-6 rs1800795 SNP. T-positive genotypes are also significantly more common in subjects with higher titers at day 105. In addition, in this group of subjects, the frequency of the CT genotype of IL-4 rs2243250 is higher among those vaccinated with higher titers. Moreover, these SNPs and TNFA rs1800629 are differently distributed in a group of subjects that were found infected by SARS-CoV-2 at day 105 of evaluation. Finally, subjects that were found to be infected by SARS-CoV-2 at day 105 were significantly older than the uninfected subjects. Taken together, these data seem to suggest that age and polymorphisms of key cytokines, which regulate inflammation and humoral immune response, might influence the magnitude of the antibody response to vaccination with BNT162B2, prompting speculation about the possible benefit of a genetic background-based assessment of a personalized approach to the anti-COVID vaccination schedule

Case report: laser Nd:YAG e rieducazione funzionale nella sindrome del piriforme

La sindrome del piriforme \ue8 caratterizzata da una lombalgia con interessamento del gluteo e con possibile irradiazione all'arto inferiore; pu\uf2 essere definita come una patologia dovuta ad intrappolamento, compressione o irritazione del nervo sciatico a livello del muscolo piriforme con o senza deficit neurologici. In questo studio \ue8 stata valutata l'efficacia della sinergia terapeutica tra laser Neodimio:YAG e rieducazione funzionale nella riduzione del dolore e nel miglioramento dell'indipendenza funzionale in una paziente affetta da sindrome del piriforme

A 400 Ma-long Nd-Hf isotopic evolution of melt-modified garnet-pyroxenites in an ancient subcontinental lithosphere (Lanzo North ophiolite, Western Alps)

Pyroxenite veining is widely preserved in peridotite massifs, and used to derive information on the origin and evolution of upper mantle domains. These lithospheric mantle sections can be isolated from the convecting mantle for >1 Ga or more, suffering a long history of melting and/or melt-rock reaction processes, which modify their original chemical and isotopic compositions. Here, we show the effect of ancient process of melt-rock reaction in the chemistry of garnet pyroxenites from Lanzo North Massif, an iconic lithospheric mantle section exhumed during the opening of the Jurassic Alpine Tethys. Selected pyroxenites are more than 10 cm thick, and embedded within peridotites that have textures and chemical compositions indicative of a complex history of interaction with migrating melts. Whole rock and clinopyroxene Nd-Hf isotopes of the pyroxenites consistently indicate that the first melt-rock reaction event occurred at ~400 Ma, likely in combination with exhumation from the garnet to the spinel-facies mantle conditions. Two samples still retain textural relicts and chemical evidence of precursor garnet and have high εNd (~12) for comparatively low εHf (~10), when recalculated at 400 Ma, which suggest that they were less affected by this ancient percolation process. The chemical evidence of such a long history of melt-rock reactions was preserved from 400 Ma until present. Finally, two pyroxenites located within plagioclase peridotites show evidence for an event of re-equilibration at plagioclase-facies conditions, likely triggered by infiltration of melt in the host rock. These samples reveal the coexistence of two internal Sm-Nd isochrones at 152 ± 30 Ma and 149 ± 13 Ma, thereby providing temporal constraints to the event of melt impregnation of the host peridotites as consequence of the opening of the Ligurian Tethys ocean

A determination of the average up-down, strange and charm quark masses from Nf=2+1+1N_f=2+1+1

We present a lattice QCD determination of the average up-down, strange and charm quark masses based on simulations performed by the European Twisted Mass Collaboration with $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ dynamical fermions. We simulated at three different values of the lattice spacing, the smallest being approximately $0.06fm$, and with pion masses as small as $210 \text{MeV}$. Our results are: $m_{ud}(2\text{GeV})=3.70(17)\text{MeV}$, $m_s(2\text{GeV})=99.2(3.9)\text{MeV}$, $m_c(m_c)=1.350(49)\text{GeV}$, $m_s/m_{ud}=26.64(30)$ and $m_c/m_s=11.65(12)$