The overconfidence problem in insurance markets

Adverse selection has long been recognized as a rationale for government intervention in in- surance markets and for the adoption of public compulsory insurance. A different rationale for compulsory insurance is that overconfident individuals may underinsure because they underes- timate the relevant risks. We show that government intervention is not a Pareto improvement in an adverse selection model with a significant fraction of overcon�dent agents. We underline that behavioral biases need not be the basis for government intervention. In fact, behavioral biases may overturn existing compelling reasons for intervention in the economy. Our model also delivers novel positive implications on aggregate variables that have been at the center of recent empirical investigation

ERC-ESICM guidelines for prognostication after cardiac arrest: time for an update

About two-thirds of patients who are comatose after resuscitation from cardiac arrest die before hospital discharge, of whom two-thirds die from neurological injury. In these patients, prognostication is crucial in informing clinicians and patient’s relatives. Recently, three studies from different groups of investigators have retrospectively assessed the accuracy of the 2015 ERC-ESICM prognostication algorithm. All these studies consistently confirmed the accuracy of the ERC-ESICM multimodal prognostication strategy in avoiding a falsely pessimistic prediction. Interestingly, this high specificity was confirmed when the 2014 criteria for malignant EEG were replaced with a more recent classification of EEG pattern. Besides improving sensitivity of prediction, this classification also enables a good interrater reliability, favouring guidelines’ implementation

On the Difference Between Social and Private Good

AbstractStandard economic models have long been applied to choices over private consumption goods, but have recently been extended to incorporate social situations as well. We challenge the applicability of standard decision-theoretic models to social settings. In an experiment where choices affect the payoffs of someone else, we find that a large fraction of subjects prefer randomization over any of the deterministic outcomes. This tendency prevails whether the other party knows about the choice situation or not. Such randomization violates standard decision theory axioms that require that lotteries are never better than their best deterministic component. For conceptually similar choices in classical non-social situations, we do not find much evidence for such violations, suggesting the need for theories of uncertainty that are targeted to social settings.</jats:p

Belief heterogeneity and survival in incomplete markets

In complete markets economies (Sandroni [16]), or in economies with Pareto optimal outcomes (Blume and Easley [10]), the market selection hypothesis holds, as long as traders have identical discount factors. Traders who survive must have beliefs that merge with the truth. We show that in incomplete markets, regardless of traders’ discount factors, the market selects for a range of beliefs, at least some of which do not merge with the truth. We also show that impatient traders with incorrect beliefs can survive and that these incorrect beliefs impact prices. These beliefs may be chosen so that they are far from the truth

Evaluation of mussel shells powder as reinforcement for pla-based biocomposites

The use of biopolyesters, as polymeric matrices, and natural fillers derived from wastes or by-products of food production to achieve biocomposites is nowadays a reality. The present paper aims to valorize mussel shells, 95% made of calcium carbonate (CaCO3 ), converting them into high-value added products. The objective of this work was to verify if CaCO3, obtained from Mediterranean Sea mussel shells, can be used as filler for a compostable matrix made of Polylactic acid (PLA) and Poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT). Thermal, mechanical, morphological and physical properties of these biocomposites were evaluated, and the micromechanical mechanism controlling stiffness and strength was investigated by analytical predictive models. The performances of these biocomposites were comparable with those of biocomposites produced with standard calcium carbonate. Thus, the present study has proved that the utilization of a waste, such as mussel shell, can become a resource for biocomposites production, and can be an effective option for further industrial scale-up

Increasing survival after admission to UK critical care units following cardiopulmonary resuscitation

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: In recent years there have been many developments in post-resuscitation care. We have investigated trends in patient characteristics and outcome following admission to UK critical care units following cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) for the period 2004-2014. Our hypothesis is that there has been a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality during this period. Methods: We undertook a prospectively defined, retrospective analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database (CMPD) for the period 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2014. Admissions, mechanically ventilated in the first 24 hours in the critical care unit and admitted following CPR, defined as the delivery of chest compressions in the 24 hours before admission, were identified. Case mix, withdrawal, outcome and activity were described annually for all admissions identified as post-cardiac arrest admissions, and separately for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and in-hospital cardiac arrest. To assess whether in-hospital mortality had improved over time, hierarchical multivariate logistic regression models were constructed, with in-hospital mortality as the dependent variable, year of admission as the main exposure variable and intensive care unit (ICU) as a random effect. All analyses were repeated using only the data from those ICUs contributing data throughout the study period. Results: During the period 2004-2014 survivors of cardiac arrest accounted for an increasing proportion of mechanically ventilated admissions to ICUs in the ICNARC CMPD (9.0 % in 2004 increasing to 12.2 % in 2014). Risk-adjusted hospital mortality following admission to ICU after cardiac arrest has decreased significantly during this period (OR 0.96 per year). Over this time, the ICU length of stay and time to treatment withdrawal has increased significantly. Re-analysis including only those 116 ICUs contributing data throughout the study period confirmed all the results of the primary analysis. Conclusions: Risk-adjusted hospital mortality following admission to ICU after cardiac arrest has decreased significantly during the period 2004-2014. Over the same period the ICU length of stay and time to treatment withdrawal has increased significantly

SSEP amplitude for prognostication in post-anoxic coma: A further step towards standardisation

Recent sttudies have shown that short-latency somatosensory (SSEP) amplitude as a predictor of outcome in post-anoxi coma is a continuous – rather than a dichotomous – variable. In addition, these studies showed that low-voltage SSEP is as reliable as a bilaterally absent SSEP for predicting severe hypoxic-ischaemic brain injury. Inevitably, when continuous variables are used to predict a dichotomous outcome (good vs. poor), there is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity along the values of these variables, and we need to establish a threshold value to maximise the measure of accuracy that is more clinically relevant (in this case, specificity). The major problem with this approach is that these thresholds are often inconsistent across studies

Microtiming patterns and interactions with musical properties in Samba music

In this study, we focus on the interaction between microtiming patterns and several musical properties: intensity, meter and spectral characteristics. The data-set of 106 musical audio excerpts is processed by means of an auditory model and then divided into several spectral regions and metric levels. The resulting segments are described in terms of their musical properties, over which patterns of peak positions and their intensities are sought. A clustering algorithm is used to systematize the process of pattern detection. The results confirm previously reported anticipations of the third and fourth semiquavers in a beat. We also argue that these patterns of microtiming deviations interact with different profiles of intensities that change according to the metrical structure and spectral characteristics. In particular, we suggest two new findings: (i) a small delay of microtiming positions at the lower end of the spectrum on the first semiquaver of each beat and (ii) systematic forms of accelerando and ritardando at a microtiming level covering two-beat and four-beat phrases. The results demonstrate the importance of multidimensional interactions with timing aspects of music. However, more research is needed in order to find proper representations for rhythm and microtiming aspects in such contexts