Observational needs for improving ocean and coupled reanalysis, S2S prediction, and decadal prediction

Developments in observing system technologies and ocean data assimilation (DA) are symbiotic. New observation types lead to new DA methods and new DA methods, such as coupled DA, can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners of DA are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example, taking advantage of strongly coupled DA so that ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate as well as the initialization of operational long-range prediction models. There are many remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean-observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and the simplifying assumptions made in DA solution methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to bring the ocean-observing and DA communities together. For prediction applications, there is wide agreement that protocols are needed for rapid communication of ocean-observing data on numerical weather prediction (NWP) timescales. There is potential for new observation types to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of NWP, covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. Better communication between DA and observation communities is encouraged in order to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance for the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network

WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25

Under embargo until: 2022-10-01As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future.publishedVersio

Third Wave Interventions for Adolescents with Mental Health Disorders: A Meta-Analysis

This item is only available electronically.Little is known about the efficacy and effectiveness of third wave interventions for adolescents with mental health disorders. This study reviewed the empirical evidence for third wave interventions (mindfulness-based cognitive therapy [MBCT], mindfulness-based stress reduction [MBSR], acceptance and commitment therapy [ACT], dialectical behaviour therapy [DBT], and compassion focused therapy [CFT]) in clinical adolescent populations. Five databases were systematically searched for controlled and uncontrolled studies that had evaluated MBCT, MBSR, ACT, DBT, or CFT with adolescents with mental health disorders. Risk of bias was assessed using the QualSyst tool and effect sizes (Hedges’ g) were calculated with associated p-values, 95% confidence intervals, and prediction intervals. Twelve studies, comprising a pooled sample of 584 adolescents and all evaluating DBT, were identified. Studies were mostly of sound methodological quality. Significant and large pooled effect sizes were found for all six mental health outcomes (depression, anxiety, emotional regulation, suicidal ideation, self-harm, and borderline personality disorder [BPD] symptoms) at post-intervention. However, variability in treatment response across studies was evident. Effect estimates were also less pronounced in between-group designs, particularly at follow-up. No moderation was observed by DBT intensity or duration. While DBT is effective in reducing psychological symptoms in adolescents with mental health disorders, more rigorous, controlled studies are needed to draw more reliable conclusions about the efficacy of DBT in such populations. Greater research in more diverse adolescent samples and with other third wave interventions (e.g., ACT, MBCT) is also warranted. Keywords: third wave intervention, dialectical behavior therapy, adolescent, mental health, meta-analysisThesis (Master of Psychology (Clinical)) -- University of Adelaide, School of Psychology, 202

An adaptive quality control procedure for data assimilation

We describe a simple adaptive quality control procedure that limits the impact of individual observations likely to be inconsistent with the state of the data assimilation system. It smoothly increases the observation error variance depending on the projected increment, state error variance and so-called K-factor so that the resulting increment does not exceed the estimated state error times K. Because an estimate of the state error is readily available in the Kalman filter (KF), the method is particularly suitable for the KF, ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), or ensemble optimal interpolation systems. The tests show that setting K to about 1.5–2 or above has no detrimental effect for performance of nearly optimal systems; at the same time it still makes it possible to make use of observations that might otherwise be discarded by the background check. The technique is successfully used in the EnKF codes TOPAZ and EnKF-C

Applications of Satellite-Derived Ocean Measurements to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

Sudden tropical cyclone (TC) intensification has been linked with high values of upper ocean heat content contained in mesoscale features, particularly warm ocean eddies, provided that atmospheric conditions are also favorable. Although understanding of air-sea interaction for TCs is evolving, this manuscript summarizes some of the current work being carried out to investigate the role that the upper ocean plays in TC intensification and the use of ocean parameters in forecasting TC intensity