Quantifying Economic Dependency

In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change

New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing

People’s views on population ageing are influenced by the statistics that they read about it. The statistical measures in common use today were first developed around a century ago, in a very different demographic environment. For around two decades, we have been studying population ageing and have been arguing that its conventional portrayal is misleading. In this chapter, we summarize some of that research, which provides an alternative picture of population ageing, one that is more appropriate for twenty-first century. More details about our new view of population ageing can be found in. (Sanderson and Scherbov 2019). Population ageing can be measured in different ways. An example of this can found in the UN’s Profiles in Ageing, 2017. One way is to report on the forecasted increase in the number of people 60+ years old in the world

Is there a difference between child self-ratings and parent proxy-ratings of the quality of life of children with a diagnosis of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)? A systematic review of the literature

There are contemporary indicators that parent proxy-ratings and child self-ratings of a child’s quality of life (QoL) are not interchangeable. This review examines dual informant studies to assess parent–child agreement on the QoL of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. A systematic search of four major databases (PsycINFO, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases) was completed, and related peer-reviewed journals were hand-searched. Studies which reported quantitative QoL ratings for matched parent and child dyads were screened in accordance with relevant inclusion and exclusion criteria. Key findings were extracted from thirteen relevant studies, which were rated for conformity to the recommendations of an adapted version of the STROBE statement guidelines for observational studies. In the majority of studies reviewed, children rated their QoL more highly than their parents. There was some evidence for greater agreement on the physical health domain than psychosocial domains

Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserv

Validation of a HLA-A2 tetramer flow cytometric method, IFNgamma real time RT-PCR, and IFNgamma ELISPOT for detection of immunologic response to gp100 and MelanA/MART-1 in melanoma patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HLA-A2 tetramer flow cytometry, IFNγ real time RT-PCR and IFNγ ELISPOT assays are commonly used as surrogate immunological endpoints for cancer immunotherapy. While these are often used as research assays to assess patient's immunologic response, assay validation is necessary to ensure reliable and reproducible results and enable more accurate data interpretation. Here we describe a rigorous validation approach for each of these assays prior to their use for clinical sample analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Standard operating procedures for each assay were established. HLA-A2 (A*0201) tetramer assay specific for gp100_209(210M)and MART-1_26–35(27L), IFNγ real time RT-PCR and ELISPOT methods were validated using tumor infiltrating lymphocyte cell lines (TIL) isolated from HLA-A2 melanoma patients. TIL cells, specific for gp100 (TIL 1520) or MART-1 (TIL 1143 and TIL1235), were used alone or spiked into cryopreserved HLA-A2 PBMC from healthy subjects. TIL/PBMC were stimulated with peptides (gp100₂₀₉, gp100_pool, MART-1_27–35, or influenza-M1 and negative control peptide HIV) to further assess assay performance characteristics for real time RT-PCR and ELISPOT methods. Validation parameters included specificity, accuracy, precision, linearity of dilution, limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ). In addition, distribution was established in normal HLA-A2 PBMC samples. Reference ranges for assay controls were established.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The validation process demonstrated that the HLA-A2 tetramer, IFNγ real time RT-PCR, and IFNγ ELISPOT were highly specific for each antigen, with minimal cross-reactivity between gp100 and MelanA/MART-1. The assays were sensitive; detection could be achieved at as few as 1/4545–1/6667 cells by tetramer analysis, 1/50,000 cells by real time RT-PCR, and 1/10,000–1/20,000 by ELISPOT. The assays met criteria for precision with %CV < 20% (except ELISPOT using high PBMC numbers with %CV < 25%) although flow cytometric assays and cell based functional assays are known to have high assay variability. Most importantly, assays were demonstrated to be effective for their intended use. A positive IFNγ response (by RT-PCR and ELISPOT) to gp100 was demonstrated in PBMC from 3 melanoma patients. Another patient showed a positive MART-1 response measured by all 3 validated methods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results demonstrated the tetramer flow cytometry assay, IFNγ real-time RT-PCR, and INFγ ELISPOT met validation criteria. Validation approaches provide a guide for others in the field to validate these and other similar assays for assessment of patient T cell response. These methods can be applied not only to cancer vaccines but to other therapeutic proteins as part of immunogenicity and safety analyses.</p

Doubling of World Population Unlikely

Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

The politicisation of evaluation: constructing and contesting EU policy performance

Although systematic policy evaluation has been conducted for decades and has been growing strongly within the European Union (EU) institutions and in the member states, it remains largely underexplored in political science literatures. Extant work in political science and public policy typically focuses on elements such as agenda setting, policy shaping, decision making, or implementation rather than evaluation. Although individual pieces of research on evaluation in the EU have started to emerge, most often regarding policy “effectiveness” (one criterion among many in evaluation), a more structured approach is currently missing. This special issue aims to address this gap in political science by focusing on four key focal points: evaluation institutions (including rules and cultures), evaluation actors and interests (including competencies, power, roles and tasks), evaluation design (including research methods and theories, and their impact on policy design and legislation), and finally, evaluation purpose and use (including the relationships between discourse and scientific evidence, political attitudes and strategic use). The special issue considers how each of these elements contributes to an evolving governance system in the EU, where evaluation is playing an increasingly important role in decision making

Physical activity for people living with dementia: carer outcomes and side effects from the perspectives of professionals and family carers

Adherence to physical activity is challenging for people living with dementia, and largely dependent on carers' involvement. Carers are likely to support physical activity based on their perceived balance between benefits and potential side effects of such intervention for both patients and themselves. Professionals also have a role in terms of optimising such interventions not only for people with dementia but also their carers.publishe

Validation of a HLA-A2 tetramer flow cytometric method, IFNgamma real time RT-PCR, and IFNgamma ELISPOT for detection of immunologic response to gp100 and MelanA/MART-1 in melanoma patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HLA-A2 tetramer flow cytometry, IFNγ real time RT-PCR and IFNγ ELISPOT assays are commonly used as surrogate immunological endpoints for cancer immunotherapy. While these are often used as research assays to assess patient's immunologic response, assay validation is necessary to ensure reliable and reproducible results and enable more accurate data interpretation. Here we describe a rigorous validation approach for each of these assays prior to their use for clinical sample analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Standard operating procedures for each assay were established. HLA-A2 (A*0201) tetramer assay specific for gp100_209(210M)and MART-1_26–35(27L), IFNγ real time RT-PCR and ELISPOT methods were validated using tumor infiltrating lymphocyte cell lines (TIL) isolated from HLA-A2 melanoma patients. TIL cells, specific for gp100 (TIL 1520) or MART-1 (TIL 1143 and TIL1235), were used alone or spiked into cryopreserved HLA-A2 PBMC from healthy subjects. TIL/PBMC were stimulated with peptides (gp100₂₀₉, gp100_pool, MART-1_27–35, or influenza-M1 and negative control peptide HIV) to further assess assay performance characteristics for real time RT-PCR and ELISPOT methods. Validation parameters included specificity, accuracy, precision, linearity of dilution, limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ). In addition, distribution was established in normal HLA-A2 PBMC samples. Reference ranges for assay controls were established.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The validation process demonstrated that the HLA-A2 tetramer, IFNγ real time RT-PCR, and IFNγ ELISPOT were highly specific for each antigen, with minimal cross-reactivity between gp100 and MelanA/MART-1. The assays were sensitive; detection could be achieved at as few as 1/4545–1/6667 cells by tetramer analysis, 1/50,000 cells by real time RT-PCR, and 1/10,000–1/20,000 by ELISPOT. The assays met criteria for precision with %CV < 20% (except ELISPOT using high PBMC numbers with %CV < 25%) although flow cytometric assays and cell based functional assays are known to have high assay variability. Most importantly, assays were demonstrated to be effective for their intended use. A positive IFNγ response (by RT-PCR and ELISPOT) to gp100 was demonstrated in PBMC from 3 melanoma patients. Another patient showed a positive MART-1 response measured by all 3 validated methods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results demonstrated the tetramer flow cytometry assay, IFNγ real-time RT-PCR, and INFγ ELISPOT met validation criteria. Validation approaches provide a guide for others in the field to validate these and other similar assays for assessment of patient T cell response. These methods can be applied not only to cancer vaccines but to other therapeutic proteins as part of immunogenicity and safety analyses.</p