Cigarette smoking prevalence and associated factors among college students, Amhara, Ethiopia

Introduction: tobacco is the only legal drug that kills many of its users when used exactly as intended by the manufacturers. It is estimated that of the 1.1 billion smokers worldwide, nearly 80% of them live in low and middle-income countries. This trend increases in college and university students with most smokers starting to smoke during adolescent. The aim of this study is to assess cigarette smoking prevalence and associated factors among a select group of college of teachers´ education students. Methods: a cross-sectional study was conducted. Multistage sampling was used to select 605 study participants from across the eight departments of the Injibara College of Teachers´ Education. Each subject was selected by simple random sampling technique after proportional allocation to each class. EpiData version 4.2 was used for data entry and Stata version 14 was used for data cleaning and analysis. Variables with p-value < 0.2 in bi-variable analysis were selected for multi-variable analysis. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was reported to show the strength of association. Results: the current prevalence of cigarette smoking is 6.8% amongst the Injibara College of Teachers´ Education students. Males [AOR: 2.84 (95% CI: 1.13, 7.14)], divorced marital status [AOR: 7.27 (95% CI: 1.23, 42.85)], food source in hostel [AOR: 11.62 (95% CI 3.23, 41.71)] and exposure to family/other smokers [AOR: 6.17 (95% CI: 2.17, 16.06)] were statistically significant factors for cigarette smoking. Conclusion: the prevalence of cigarette smoking was relatively low. Male, marital status, source of food, and exposure to family/other smokers were identified associated factors. Policy makers and health regulatory body are strongly encouraged to consider this evidence and the associated factors for smoking in their efforts to develop and implement tobacco control laws

Pre-labor rupture of membranes and associated factors among pregnant women admitted to the maternity ward, Northwest Ethiopia.

Pre-labor rupture of membranes (PROM) is the rupture of fetal membranes before the onset of labor. PROM is found in 3-15% of all pregnancies and 30-40% of preterm labor worldwide. The most serious complications are neonatal and prenatal mortality, which is higher in Africa, including Ethiopia. Despite a paucity of evidence on the magnitude and factors affecting PROM after 28 weeks of gestation but before the onset of labor (including both term and preterm PROM). Hence, the purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude and identify associated factors of the pre-labor rupture of membranes. An institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 315 pregnant women from April 10, 2019 to June 30, 2019 at Debre Markos Referral Hospital. The samples were chosen using a systematic random sampling method among admitted pregnant women. The data were entered using EpiData entry version 4.2 and cleaned and analyzed using Stata/SE version 14.0. In binary logistic regressions, variables with a p-value <0.20 are selected for multivariable analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model with a 95% confidence interval and a p-value <0.05 was used to identify associated factors. In this study, the magnitude of PROM was 19%. Maternal monthly income ≤1000 birr [AOR: 3.33 (95%CI: 1.33, 8.33)], gestational age <37weeks [AOR: 3. 28 (95%CI: 1.53, 7.02)], multiple pregnancy [AOR: 4.14 (95%CI: 1.78, 9.62)], polyhydramnios [AOR: 5.06 (95%CI: 2.28, 11.23)] and history of abnormal vaginal discharge [AOR: 6.65 (95%CI: 2.62, 16.72)] were found significant associated factors. In conclusion, the magnitude of the pre-labor rapture of the membranes was higher than in previous studies. Hence, health professionals should strengthen counseling, early diagnosis, and treatment of infections, as well as focus on women with pregnancy-related risks, to reduce pre-labor rupture of membranes and improve fetal and perinatal health

Prevalence of intestinal parasitic infection and its associated factors among primary school students in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

IntroductionIntestinal parasitic infection are a major public health concern affecting both children and adolescents in Ethiopia. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine pooled prevalence and associated factors of intestinal parasitic infection in this target group.MethodWe systematically retrieved available articles on the prevalence of intestinal parasitic infection following database searches using PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, and Science Direct between March 1 and May 27, 2020. Two authors independently extracted all relevant data using a standardized Microsoft Excel data extraction form. Heterogeneity among included studies was assessed with the Higgins I2 tests. The pooled estimates and associated factors were assessed with a random-effects model using Stata/se Version 14.ResultWe retrieved 30 eligible articles with a pooled sample size of 14,445 primary school children with response rate of 97.8%. Entamoeba spp (16.11%), Ascaris lumbricoides (13.98%), hookworm (12.51%) and Giardia lamblia (9.98%) are the top causes of intestinal parasitic infection among primary school children in Ethiopia. The pooled prevalence for at least one intestinal parasitic infection was 46.09 (95% CI: 38.50, 53.68). Heterogeneity was assessed by doing subgroup analysis by study province/region. Thus, the highest prevalence of 66.6% (95% CI: 55.5, 77.7) occurred in Tigray region, which was followed by Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region at 50.8% (95% CI: 33.1, 68.5). No latrine availability (OR = 4.39: 2.50,7.73), no fingernail hygiene (OR = 2.37: 1.67, 3.35), open defecation (OR = 1.67:1.64,4.36), no formal maternal education (OR = 2.02: 1.18,3.47), rural residence (OR = 1.88: 1.46, 2.41), no habit of wearing shoes (OR = 2.66: 1.79, 3.96), non-pipe source of drinking water (OR = 1.99: 1.42,2.76), no regular hand washing practices (OR = 3.45:1.85,6.47), and no habit of washing fruits and vegetables (OR = 1.59:1.01,2.49) were associated with parasitic infection.ConclusionsThe prevalence of intestinal parasitic infection was high (46%). Attention should be given to promoting personal hygiene, latrine utilization, wearing shoes, avoiding eating raw food, creating awareness for those mothers who lack formal education. Moreover, future research ideally will expand on the topic by conducting research in regions which have no prior research

Mortality of acute poisoning and its predictors in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction: Poison is defined as any chemical that has the potential to affect or harm human physiology due to its chemical activity. Poisoning is becoming a major preventable public health issue in many countries, including Ethiopia. There is a variation in acute poisoning mortality among the existing evidence in Ethiopia. This study aims to determine the pooled mortality rate from acute poisoning and its predictors in Ethiopia. Methods: We searched available evidence of acute poisoning mortality in databases such as PubMed, Hinari, Cochrane, ScienceDirect, and other search engines. Using the Microsoft Excel data extraction form, three authors independently extracted all relevant data. The Higgins I2 test statistics were used to examine heterogeneity among included studies A random-effects model was used to analyze the pooled estimates and predictors in Stata MP version 17. Results: We retrieved 2685 relevant records from different database sources, and after screening, 21 studies (17 published and 4 unpublished) were included. The pooled mortality rate for acute poisoning was 4.69(95 % CI: 3.69, 5.69 I2 = 94.7 %). The most common poisoning agents are organophosphate (29.9 %), household cleansing agents (17.5 %), and pharmaceuticals/medications (9.3 %). The majority of poisoning cases were intentional poisoning committed suicide. Poisoning cases in rural areas [RR: 3.98(95 % CI: 1.41, 11.25)] and delayed arrival times [RR: 2.90(95 % CI: 1.45, 5.84)] were identified predictors of mortality. Conclusions: In this study, the pooled mortality from acute poisoning was 4.69 %. Poisoned cases from rural areas and delayed arrival times to the hospital were predictors of mortality. To prevent mortality, healthcare professionals should give special attention to rural residents and delayed arrival of poison cases. To control this avoidable death, poison control centers should be strengthened, and other preventive measures implemented at the national level

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.</p