Implications of AlphaFold2 for crystallographic phasing by molecular replacement.

The AlphaFold2 results in the 14th edition of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP14) showed that accurate (low root-mean-square deviation) in silico models of protein structure domains are on the horizon, whether or not the protein is related to known structures through high-coverage sequence similarity. As highly accurate models become available, generated by harnessing the power of correlated mutations and deep learning, one of the aspects of structural biology to be impacted will be methods of phasing in crystallography. Here, the data from CASP14 are used to explore the prospects for changes in phasing methods, and in particular to explore the prospects for molecular-replacement phasing using in silico models

Evaluation of model refinement in CASP13.

Performance in the model refinement category of the 13th round of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP13) is assessed, showing that some groups consistently improve most starting models whereas the majority of participants continue to degrade the starting model on average. Using the ranking formula developed for CASP12, it is shown that only 7 of 32 groups perform better than a "naïve predictor" who just submits the starting model. Common features in their approaches include a dependence on physics-based force fields to judge alternative conformations and the use of molecular dynamics to relax models to local minima, usually with some restraints to prevent excessively large movements. In addition to the traditional CASP metrics that focus largely on the quality of the overall fold, alternative metrics are evaluated, including comparisons of the main-chain and side-chain torsion angles, and the utility of the models for solving crystal structures by the molecular replacement method. It is proposed that the introduction of these metrics, as well as consideration of the accuracy of coordinate error estimates, would improve the discrimination between good and very good models.Wellcome Trust Marie Sklowdowska-Curie grain for EU Horizon 202

Evaluation of template-based modeling in CASP13.

Performance in the template-based modeling (TBM) category of CASP13 is assessed here, using a variety of metrics. Performance of the predictor groups that participated is ranked using the primary ranking score that was developed by the assessors for CASP12. This reveals that the best results are obtained by groups that include contact predictions or inter-residue distance predictions derived from deep multiple sequence alignments. In cases where there is a good homolog in the wwPDB (TBM-easy category), the best results are obtained by modifying a template. However, for cases with poorer homologs (TBM-hard), very good results can be obtained without using an explicit template, by deep learning algorithms trained on the wwPDB. Alternative metrics are introduced, to allow testing of aspects of structural models that are not addressed by traditional CASP metrics. These include comparisons to the main-chain and side-chain torsion angles of the target, and the utility of models for solving crystal structures by the molecular replacement method. The alternative metrics are poorly correlated with the traditional metrics, and it is proposed that modeling has reached a sufficient level of maturity that the best models should be expected to satisfy this wider range of criteria

Factors influencing estimates of coordinate error for molecular replacement.

Good prior estimates of the effective root-mean-square deviation (r.m.s.d.) between the atomic coordinates of the model and the target optimize the signal in molecular replacement, thereby increasing the success rate in difficult cases. Previous studies using protein structures solved by X-ray crystallography as models showed that optimal error estimates (refined after structure solution) were correlated with the sequence identity between the model and target, and with the number of residues in the model. Here, this work has been extended to find additional correlations between parameters of the model and the target and hence improved prior estimates of the coordinate error. Using a graph database, a curated set of 6030 molecular-replacement calculations using models that had been solved by X-ray crystallography was analysed to consider about 120 model and target parameters. Improved estimates were achieved by replacing the sequence identity with the Gonnet score for sequence similarity, as well as by considering the resolution of the target structure and the MolProbity score of the model. This approach was extended by analysing 12 610 additional molecular-replacement calculations where the model was determined by NMR. The median r.m.s.d. between pairs of models in an ensemble was found to be correlated with the estimated r.m.s.d. to the target. For models solved by NMR, the overall coordinate error estimates were larger than for structures determined by X-ray crystallography, and were more highly correlated with the number of residues

ALEPH: a network-oriented approach for the generation of fragment-based libraries and for structure interpretation.

The analysis of large structural databases reveals general features and relationships among proteins, providing useful insight. A different approach is required to characterize ubiquitous secondary-structure elements, where flexibility is essential in order to capture small local differences. The ALEPH software is optimized for the analysis and the extraction of small protein folds by relying on their geometry rather than on their sequence. The annotation of the structural variability of a given fold provides valuable information for fragment-based molecular-replacement methods, in which testing alternative model hypotheses can succeed in solving difficult structures when no homology models are available or are successful. ARCIMBOLDO_BORGES combines the use of composite secondary-structure elements as a search model with density modification and tracing to reveal the rest of the structure when both steps are successful. This phasing method relies on general fold libraries describing variations around a given pattern of β-sheets and helices extracted using ALEPH. The program introduces characteristic vectors defined from the main-chain atoms as a way to describe the geometrical properties of the structure. ALEPH encodes structural properties in a graph network, the exploration of which allows secondary-structure annotation, decomposition of a structure into small compact folds, generation of libraries of models representing a variation of a given fold and finally superposition of these folds onto a target structure. These functions are available through a graphical interface designed to interactively show the results of structure manipulation, annotation, fold decomposition, clustering and library generation. ALEPH can produce pictures of the graphs, structures and folds for publication purposes

Gyre and gimble: a maximum-likelihood replacement for Patterson correlation refinement.

Descriptions are given of the maximum-likelihood gyre method implemented in Phaser for optimizing the orientation and relative position of rigid-body fragments of a model after the orientation of the model has been identified, but before the model has been positioned in the unit cell, and also the related gimble method for the refinement of rigid-body fragments of the model after positioning. Gyre refinement helps to lower the root-mean-square atomic displacements between model and target molecular-replacement solutions for the test case of antibody Fab(26-10) and improves structure solution with ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER

Detection of translational noncrystallographic symmetry in Patterson functions.

Detection of translational noncrystallographic symmetry (TNCS) can be critical for success in crystallographic phasing, particularly when molecular-replacement models are poor or anomalous phasing information is weak. If the correct TNCS is detected then expected intensity factors for each reflection can be refined, so that the maximum-likelihood functions underlying molecular replacement and single-wavelength anomalous dispersion use appropriate structure-factor normalization and variance terms. Here, an analysis of a curated database of protein structures from the Protein Data Bank to investigate how TNCS manifests in the Patterson function is described. These studies informed an algorithm for the detection of TNCS, which includes a method for detecting the number of vectors involved in any commensurate modulation (the TNCS order). The algorithm generates a ranked list of possible TNCS associations in the asymmetric unit for exploration during structure solution

Exploiting distant homologues for phasing through the generation of compact fragments, local fold refinement and partial solution combination.

Macromolecular structures can be solved by molecular replacement provided that suitable search models are available. Models from distant homologues may deviate too much from the target structure to succeed, notwithstanding an overall similar fold or even their featuring areas of very close geometry. Successful methods to make the most of such templates usually rely on the degree of conservation to select and improve search models. ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER uses fragments derived from distant homologues in a brute-force approach driven by the experimental data, instead of by sequence similarity. The new algorithms implemented in ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER are described in detail, illustrating its characteristic aspects in the solution of new and test structures. In an advance from the previously published algorithm, which was based on omitting or extracting contiguous polypeptide spans, model generation now uses three-dimensional volumes respecting structural units. The optimal fragment size is estimated from the expected log-likelihood gain (LLG) values computed assuming that a substructure can be found with a level of accuracy near that required for successful extension of the structure, typically below 0.6 Å root-mean-square deviation (r.m.s.d.) from the target. Better sampling is attempted through model trimming or decomposition into rigid groups and optimization through Phaser's gyre refinement. Also, after model translation, packing filtering and refinement, models are either disassembled into predetermined rigid groups and refined (gimble refinement) or Phaser's LLG-guided pruning is used to trim the model of residues that are not contributing signal to the LLG at the target r.m.s.d. value. Phase combination among consistent partial solutions is performed in reciprocal space with ALIXE. Finally, density modification and main-chain autotracing in SHELXE serve to expand to the full structure and identify successful solutions. The performance on test data and the solution of new structures are described

Assessing the utility of CASP14 models for molecular replacement

Funder: CCP4Funder: Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004189Abstract: The assessment of CASP models for utility in molecular replacement is a measure of their use in a valuable real‐world application. In CASP7, the metric for molecular replacement assessment involved full likelihood‐based molecular replacement searches; however, this restricted the assessable targets to crystal structures with only one copy of the target in the asymmetric unit, and to those where the search found the correct pose. In CASP10, full molecular replacement searches were replaced by likelihood‐based rigid‐body refinement of models superimposed on the target using the LGA algorithm, with the metric being the refined log‐likelihood‐gain (LLG) score. This enabled multi‐copy targets and very poor models to be evaluated, but a significant further issue remained: the requirement of diffraction data for assessment. We introduce here the relative‐expected‐LLG (reLLG), which is independent of diffraction data. This reLLG is also independent of any crystal form, and can be calculated regardless of the source of the target, be it X‐ray, NMR or cryo‐EM. We calibrate the reLLG against the LLG for targets in CASP14, showing that it is a robust measure of both model and group ranking. Like the LLG, the reLLG shows that accurate coordinate error estimates add substantial value to predicted models. We find that refinement by CASP groups can often convert an inadequate initial model into a successful MR search model. Consistent with findings from others, we show that the AlphaFold2 models are sufficiently good, and reliably so, to surpass other current model generation strategies for attempting molecular replacement phasing