Online learning for infectious disease fellows-A needs assessment

BACKGROUND: Online resources and social media have become increasingly ubiquitous in medical education. Little is known about the need for educational resources aimed at infectious disease (ID) fellows. METHODS: We conducted an educational needs assessment through a survey that aimed to describe ID fellows\u27 current use of online and social media tools, assess the value of online learning, and identify the educational content preferred by ID fellows. We subsequently convened focus groups with ID fellows to explore how digital tools contribute to fellow learning. RESULTS: A total of 110 ID fellows responded to the survey. Over half were second-year fellows (61, 55%). Although many respondents were satisfied with the educational resources provided by their fellowship program (70, 64%), the majority were interested in an online collaborative educational resource (97, 88%). Twitter was the most popular social media platform for education and the most valued online resource for learning. Focus groups identified several themes regarding social medial learning: broadened community, low barrier to learning, technology-enhanced learning, and limitations of current tools. Overall, the focus groups suggest that fellows value social media and online learning. CONCLUSIONS: ID fellows are currently using online and social media resources, which they view as valuable educational tools. Fellowship programs should consider these resources as complementary to traditional teaching and as a means to augment ID fellow education

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Morning report for all: a qualitative study of disseminating case conferences via podcasting

BackgroundDespite its long-established importance, diagnostic reasoning (DR) education has suffered uneven implementation in medical education. The Clinical Problem Solvers (CPSolvers) podcast has emerged as a novel strategy to help teach DR through case conferences with expert diagnosticians and trainees. CPSolvers has 25,000 listeners in 147 countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the podcast by eliciting the developers' goals of the podcast, then determining to what extent they aligned with the listeners' actual usage habits, features they valued, and perceptions of the podcast.MethodsWe conducted semi-structured interviews with 3 developers and 8 listeners from April-May 2020, followed by qualitative thematic analysis.ResultsThree major developer goals with sub-goals resulted: 1. To teach diagnostic reasoning in a case-based format by (1a) teaching schemas, (1b) modeling expert diagnostic reasoning, (1c) teaching clinical knowledge, and (1d) teaching diagnostic reasoning terminology. 2. To change the culture of medicine by (2a) promoting diversity, (2b) modeling humility and promoting psychological safety, and (2c) creating a fun, casual way to learn. 3. To democratize the teaching of diagnostic reasoning by leveraging technology. Listeners' usage habits, valued features, and perceptions overall strongly aligned with all these aspects, except for (1c) clinical knowledge, and (1d) diagnostic reasoning terminology. Listeners identified (1a) schemas, and (2c) promotion of psychological safety as the most valuable features of the podcast.ConclusionCPSolvers has been perceived as a highly effective and novel way to disseminate DR education in the form of case conferences, serving as an alternative to traditional in-person case conferences suspended during COVID-19. CPSolvers combines many known benefits of in-person case conferences with a compassionate and entertaining teaching style, plus advantages of the podcasting medium - democratizing morning report for listeners around the world

Reduced Mortality of Staphylococcus Aureus Bacteremia in a Retrospective Cohort Study of 2139 Patients: 2007-2015

BACKGROUND: Understanding the changing epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia, as well as the variables associated with poor outcomes, can yield insight into potential interventions. METHODS: This study was a retrospective, observational cohort study of adult patients at an academic medical center in New York City who had S. aureus bloodstream infections between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2015. Participants were divided into 3 periods: group 1 (2007-2009), group 2 (2010-2012), and group 3 (2013-2015) for trend analysis. All clinical strains were genotyped (spa.). The main outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: There were 1264 episodes of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) and 875 episodes of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) bacteremia, with a rising proportion due to MSSA (55% group 1; 59% group 2; 63% group 3; P = .03.) There were no significant changes in average age, gender, Charlson score, and distribution of strain genotypes. Mortality in MRSA infection was unchanged (25% group 1; 25% group 2; 26% group 3), while mortality in MSSA infection significantly declined (18% group 1; 18% group 2; 13% group 3). The average time to antistaphylococcal therapy (AST) in MSSA infection declined during the study (3.7 days group 1; 3.5 group 2; 2.2 group 3). In multivariate analysis, AST within 7 days of initial positive MSSA culture was associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in MSSA bloodstream infection is declining, associated with a decrease in time to targeted therapy. These results emphasize the potential for rapid diagnostics and early optimization of treatment to impact outcomes in MSSA bacteremia

Does Post-Transplant Cytomegalovirus Increase the Risk of Invasive Aspergillosis in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and invasive aspergillosis (IA) cause high morbidity and mortality in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. There are conflicting data with respect to the impact of CMV on IA development in SOT recipients. Methods: A literature search was conducted from existence through to 2 April 2021 using MEDLINE, Embase, and ISI Web of Science databases. This review contained observational studies including cross-sectional, prospective cohort, retrospective cohort, and case-control studies that reported SOT recipients with post-transplant CMV (exposure) and without post-transplant CMV (non-exposure) who developed or did not develop subsequent IA. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled effect estimate. Results: A total of 16 studies were included for systematic review and meta-analysis. There were 5437 SOT patients included in the study, with 449 SOT recipients developing post-transplant IA. Post-transplant CMV significantly increased the risk of subsequent IA with pORs of 3.31 (2.34, 4.69), I2 = 30%. Subgroup analyses showed that CMV increased the risk of IA development regardless of the study period (before and after 2003), types of organ transplantation (intra-thoracic and intra-abdominal transplantation), and timing after transplant (early vs. late IA development). Further analyses by CMV definitions showed CMV disease/syndrome increased the risk of IA development, but asymptomatic CMV viremia/infection did not increase the risk of IA. Conclusions: Post-transplant CMV, particularly CMV disease/syndrome, significantly increased the risks of IA, which highlights the importance of CMV prevention strategies in SOT recipients. Further studies are needed to understand the impact of programmatic fungal surveillance or antifungal prophylaxis to prevent this fungal-after-viral phenomenon